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Poisson model rates Sudtirol at 48%, yet other data sources diverge — this Sudtirol vs Benevento fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Analysis

Benevento make the trip to Stadio Marco Druso to face Sudtirol in Serie B, Regular Season - 20. The match kicks off on Saturday 9 January 2027 at 14:00 UTC.

Form

Sudtirol (all games): 0W 5D 5L across 10 Serie B fixtures this term — 0.50 PPG. Last five: L L D D D. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Sudtirol haven't played a Serie B game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.

Sudtirol at Stadio Marco Druso this season: 1W 6D 3L from 10 home games — 0.90 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.60 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.

H2H History

The head-to-head record is closely matched — Sudtirol lead 1W to 0W over the last 2 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.

The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 1 Mar 2023, ended 2–0 with Sudtirol winning.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Sudtirol 1.47 xG and Benevento 0.94 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sudtirol attack 0.829 / defence 1.032 | Benevento attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.543 / away 1.071. Data: 38 Sudtirol games / 0 Benevento games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.

Result probabilities: Sudtirol 48% | Draw 29% | Benevento 23%. Fair-value odds: Sudtirol 2.08 | Draw 3.45 | Benevento 4.35. Sudtirol hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.41. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.41 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Sudtirol at 48% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Sudtirol if the outright odds are short.

The Poisson model projects 2.41 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 43% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.

The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (0 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.

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