Ascoli vs Sudtirol – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Ascoli at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Ascoli vs Sudtirol fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie B clash, Regular Season - 21 as Ascoli welcome Sudtirol to Stadio Cino e Lillo Del Duca. Kick-off is set for Saturday 16 January 2027 at 14:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie B games this season, Ascoli have gone 3W 3D 1L from 7 outings — a 1.71 PPG return. Last five: W L W D D. They are averaging 1.14 goals per game and conceding 0.71 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.71 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 2 clean sheets from 7 outings provides some defensive foundation. Ascoli have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Ascoli have posted 2W 2D 0L at Stadio Cino e Lillo Del Duca — 2.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.75 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 75% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Sudtirol — All Games: 3W 6D 1L from 10 Serie B fixtures this season — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W D W D L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 0.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Sudtirol have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Sudtirol have gone 2W 3D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.90 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Ascoli 1.71 PPG, Sudtirol 1.50 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 5 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Ascoli, 2 for Sudtirol and 2 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 10 Oct 2026, ended 0–0 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Ascoli in-play tendencies (7 games, 3 at home): they score before half-time in 43% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 29% of cases; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games.
Sudtirol in-play tendencies (7 games, 3 at away): they score before half-time in 43% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ascoli 57% versus Sudtirol 43%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Ascoli 29% | Sudtirol 29%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ascoli 1.56 xG and Sudtirol 1.26 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ascoli attack 0.983 / defence 0.983 | Sudtirol attack 1.017 / defence 1.174. League average goals — home 1.353 / away 1.261. Data: 7 Ascoli games / 45 Sudtirol games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ascoli 43% | Draw 28% | Sudtirol 29%. Fair-value odds: Ascoli 2.33 | Draw 3.57 | Sudtirol 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.82. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.82 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Ascoli at 43% — marginal model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Ascoli offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.82 combined xG gives a 54% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.7 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 58% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Ascoli 75% | Sudtirol 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ascoli vs Sudtirol | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Stadio Cino e Lillo Del Duca • Kick-off: Saturday 16 Jan 2027, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ascoli 43% | Draw 28% | Sudtirol 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 58% | xG Ascoli 1.56 / Sudtirol 1.26 • Poisson strength factors: Ascoli attack 0.983 / def 0.983 | Sudtirol attack 1.017 / def 1.174 | league avg home 1.353 / away 1.261 • Poisson stance: Ascoli (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.56
Ascoli xG
Expected Goals
1.26
Sudtirol xG
58%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ascoli vs Sudtirol kick off?
Ascoli vs Sudtirol is scheduled to kick off at 14:00 on Saturday 16 January 2027 at Stadio Cino e Lillo Del Duca.
Where is Ascoli vs Sudtirol being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Cino e Lillo Del Duca.
What competition is Ascoli vs Sudtirol part of?
Ascoli vs Sudtirol is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Ascoli vs Sudtirol?
Our statistical model gives Ascoli a 43% chance of winning, Sudtirol a 29% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Ascoli the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ascoli vs Sudtirol?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Ascoli and Sudtirol will score (BTTS).
Will Ascoli vs Sudtirol have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ascoli and Sudtirol?
Record (5 meetings): Ascoli 1W | Draws 2 | Sudtirol 2W.
What form are Ascoli and Sudtirol in?
Ascoli (all comps): 3W-3D-1L in 7 | 1.71 PPG | GF 1.14 / GA 0.71 | L5 W-L-W-D-D. Sudtirol (all comps): 3W-6D-1L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-D-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Ascoli's attacking strength (0.98x league average) is weighed against Sudtirol's defensive record (1.17x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.56. The same calculation in reverse, Sudtirol's attack versus Ascoli's defence, projects 1.26 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 7/45 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.2%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.1%), 1-0 (7.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ascoli Win
43%
2.34
28%
3.58
29%
3.41
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.3%
Home win
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.56
Ascoli xG
Total xG
2.82
1.26
Sudtirol xG
2.34
43%
Home win
3.58
28%
Draw
3.41
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.72
42%
BTTS No
2.39
Clean Sheet
28%
3.53
21%
4.76
Win to Nil
12%
8.24
6%
16.24
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.0 | 7.5 | 4.7 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.3 | 11.7 | 7.4 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.3 | 9.1 | 5.8 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.8 | 4.8 | 3.0 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.9 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ascoli vs Sudtirol?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are Ascoli and Sudtirol expected to score?
The model projects 1.56 expected goals for Ascoli and 1.26 for Sudtirol, a combined total of 2.82.
How confident is the prediction model for Ascoli vs Sudtirol?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Ascoli come into this having played 7 games, going 3W 3D 1L for 1.71 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-W-D-D. It's still early in the season for Ascoli, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Sudtirol sit at 1.71 PPG from 7 outings (3W 3D 1L), a run that reads W-D-W-D-L across their last five. It's still early in the season for Sudtirol, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Ascoli on 1.71 PPG, Sudtirol on 1.71. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Ascoli's home form reads 2W 1D 0L across 3 games on their own ground, a 2.33 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.71 PPG overall — Ascoli are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Sudtirol have taken 1.33 points per game from 3 outings (1W 1D 1L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Ascoli come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Ascoli are averaging 1.14 goals scored and 0.71 conceded per game recently; Sudtirol are on 1.29 scored and 0.86 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
Defensively: Sudtirol in 43% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 7 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ascoli
Early Season
Sudtirol
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ascoli and Sudtirol in coming into this match?
Ascoli have gone 3W 3D 1L in their last 7 games (1.71 PPG), while Sudtirol have gone 3W 3D 1L in their last 7 (1.71 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ascoli at home or Sudtirol away?
Ascoli's home record (2.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ascoli at home: 2.33 PPG; Sudtirol away: 1.33 PPG.
Have Ascoli or Sudtirol been keeping clean sheets recently?
Ascoli have kept a clean sheet in 29% of their recent games, Sudtirol in 43%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
5 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. The two were last together as recently as 10 October 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
Ascoli's record when hosting Sudtirol specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 5 Meetings
1
Ascoli
2
Draws
2
Sudtirol
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ascoli and Sudtirol?
From 5 meetings on record, Ascoli have won 1, Sudtirol have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Ascoli and Sudtirol last play each other?
They last met on 10 October 2026, when Sudtirol 0-0 Ascoli.
Who has won more matches between Ascoli and Sudtirol?
Sudtirol have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 5 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Ascoli are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Sudtirol are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Ascoli at 67%, Sudtirol at 67%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Ascoli) and 67% (Sudtirol).
On the defensive side: Ascoli keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Sudtirol in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ascoli home games / Sudtirol away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ascoli play Sudtirol?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Ascoli's games and 67% of Sudtirol's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Ascoli vs Sudtirol usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Ascoli's recent games and 67% of Sudtirol's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Ascoli and Sudtirol tend to score early?
Ascoli have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Sudtirol in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.