Ascoli vs Sudtirol – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates Ascoli at 37% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Ascoli vs Sudtirol encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie B clash, Regular Season - 21 as Ascoli welcome Sudtirol to Stadio Cino e Lillo Del Duca. Kick-off is set for Saturday 16 January 2027 at 14:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie B games this season, Ascoli have gone 2W 1D 0L from 3 outings — a 2.33 PPG return. Last five: W D W. They are averaging 1.33 goals per game and conceding 0.67 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 3 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 67% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Ascoli have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Sudtirol — All Games: 2W 5D 3L from 10 Serie B fixtures this season — 1.10 PPG. Last five: D D W D W. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Sudtirol have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Sudtirol have gone 2W 4D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
Ascoli are in the better shape of the two on current Serie B data — 1.23 PPG ahead (2.33 vs 1.10). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 4 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Ascoli, 2 for Sudtirol and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 4 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 4 Feb 2024, ended 1–2 with Sudtirol winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Ascoli in-play tendencies (3 games): they score before half-time in 33% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games.
Sudtirol in-play tendencies (3 games): they score before half-time in 0% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 0% of games; they keep a clean sheet 67% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ascoli 67% versus Sudtirol 33%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Ascoli 33% | Sudtirol 0%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ascoli 1.15 xG and Sudtirol 1.07 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ascoli attack 0.796 / defence 0.983 | Sudtirol attack 0.937 / defence 1.033. League average goals — home 1.391 / away 1.158. Ascoli's attack strength of 0.796 is below the league average — the 1.15 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 3 Ascoli games / 41 Sudtirol games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ascoli 37% | Draw 29% | Sudtirol 34%. Fair-value odds: Ascoli 2.70 | Draw 3.45 | Sudtirol 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.21. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.21 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Ascoli at 37% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Ascoli offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.21 combined xG gives a 38% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 45% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Ascoli 67% | Sudtirol 50%.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ascoli vs Sudtirol | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Stadio Cino e Lillo Del Duca • Kick-off: Saturday 16 Jan 2027, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ascoli 37% | Draw 29% | Sudtirol 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 45% | xG Ascoli 1.15 / Sudtirol 1.07 • Poisson strength factors: Ascoli attack 0.796 / def 0.983 | Sudtirol attack 0.937 / def 1.033 | league avg home 1.391 / away 1.158 • Poisson stance: Ascoli (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.15
Ascoli xG
Expected Goals
1.07
Sudtirol xG
45%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ascoli vs Sudtirol kick off?
Ascoli vs Sudtirol is scheduled to kick off at 14:00 on Saturday 16 January 2027 at Stadio Cino e Lillo Del Duca.
Where is Ascoli vs Sudtirol being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Cino e Lillo Del Duca.
What competition is Ascoli vs Sudtirol part of?
Ascoli vs Sudtirol is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Ascoli vs Sudtirol?
Our statistical model gives Ascoli a 37% chance of winning, Sudtirol a 34% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Ascoli the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ascoli vs Sudtirol?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Ascoli and Sudtirol will score (BTTS).
Will Ascoli vs Sudtirol have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ascoli and Sudtirol?
Record (4 meetings): Ascoli 1W | Draws 1 | Sudtirol 2W.
What form are Ascoli and Sudtirol in?
Ascoli (all comps): 2W-1D-0L in 3 | 2.33 PPG | GF 1.33 / GA 0.67 | L5 W-D-W. Sudtirol (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-D-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Ascoli's attacking strength (0.80x league average) is weighed against Sudtirol's defensive record (1.03x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.15. The same calculation in reverse, Sudtirol's attack versus Ascoli's defence, projects 1.07 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 3/41 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.7%), 1-0 (10.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ascoli Win
37%
2.67
29%
3.45
34%
2.98
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.5%
Home win
0 – 1
11.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.15
Ascoli xG
Total xG
2.21
1.07
Sudtirol xG
2.67
37%
Home win
3.45
29%
Draw
2.98
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.24
55%
BTTS No
1.81
Clean Sheet
34%
2.90
32%
3.14
Win to Nil
13%
7.75
11%
9.38
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.0 | 11.7 | 6.2 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.5 | 13.4 | 7.1 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.2 | 7.7 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 2.9 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ascoli vs Sudtirol?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Ascoli and Sudtirol expected to score?
The model projects 1.15 expected goals for Ascoli and 1.07 for Sudtirol, a combined total of 2.21.
How confident is the prediction model for Ascoli vs Sudtirol?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Ascoli come into this having played 3 games, going 2W 1D 0L for 2.33 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-W. It's still early in the season for Ascoli, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Sudtirol sit at 2.33 PPG from 3 outings (2W 1D 0L), a run that reads W-D-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for Sudtirol, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Ascoli on 2.33 PPG, Sudtirol on 2.33. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Goals in Recent Form
Ascoli are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 0.67 conceded per game recently; Sudtirol are on 1.33 scored and 0.33 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Ascoli have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games.
Defensively: Sudtirol in 67% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 3 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ascoli
Early Season
Sudtirol
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ascoli and Sudtirol in coming into this match?
Ascoli have gone 2W 1D 0L in their last 3 games (2.33 PPG), while Sudtirol have gone 2W 1D 0L in their last 3 (2.33 PPG).
Have Ascoli or Sudtirol been keeping clean sheets recently?
Ascoli have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Sudtirol in 67%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 4 February 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Sudtirol have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
Ascoli's record when hosting Sudtirol specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Ascoli
1
Draws
2
Sudtirol
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ascoli and Sudtirol?
From 4 meetings on record, Ascoli have won 1, Sudtirol have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Ascoli and Sudtirol last play each other?
They last met on 4 February 2024, when Ascoli 1-2 Sudtirol.
Who has won more matches between Ascoli and Sudtirol?
Sudtirol have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Ascoli see a goal before the break in 33% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Sudtirol tend to start slowly — only 0% of their games have a goal by half-time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ascoli 67%, Sudtirol 33% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 33% for Ascoli and 0% for Sudtirol.
On the defensive side: Ascoli keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Sudtirol in 67%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ascoli home games / Sudtirol away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ascoli play Sudtirol?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 67% of Ascoli's recent matches and 33% of Sudtirol's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Ascoli vs Sudtirol usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Ascoli's recent games and 0% of Sudtirol's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Ascoli and Sudtirol tend to score early?
Ascoli have had a goal before half-time in 33% of their recent matches, Sudtirol in 0% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.