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Poisson model rates Benevento at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this Benevento vs Arezzo fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Benevento and Arezzo meet at Stadio Ciro Vigorito in Serie B, Regular Season - 21. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 16 January 2027 at 14:00 UTC.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Benevento 1.51 xG and Arezzo 1.05 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Benevento attack 0.850 / defence 1.150 | Arezzo attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.543 / away 1.071. Data: 0 Benevento games / 0 Arezzo games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Benevento 47% | Draw 28% | Arezzo 25%. Fair-value odds: Benevento 2.13 | Draw 3.57 | Arezzo 4.00. Benevento hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.56. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.56 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Benevento as the most likely outcome at 47% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Benevento if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.56 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 47% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (0 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Benevento vs Arezzo | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Stadio Ciro Vigorito • Kick-off: Saturday 16 Jan 2027, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
⚔️ Head-to-Head History
• No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset
📈 Recent Form
• Form data is not yet available for either side
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Benevento 47% | Draw 28% | Arezzo 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 52% | xG Benevento 1.51 / Arezzo 1.05 • Poisson strength factors: Benevento attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | Arezzo attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 1.543 / away 1.071 • Poisson stance: Benevento (47%) — moderate lean
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.51
Benevento xG
Expected Goals
1.05
Arezzo xG
52%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
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❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Benevento vs Arezzo kick off?
Benevento vs Arezzo is scheduled to kick off at 14:00 on Saturday 16 January 2027 at Stadio Ciro Vigorito.
Where is Benevento vs Arezzo being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Ciro Vigorito.
What competition is Benevento vs Arezzo part of?
Benevento vs Arezzo is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Benevento vs Arezzo?
Our statistical model gives Benevento a 47% chance of winning, Arezzo a 25% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Benevento the favourite.
Will both teams score in Benevento vs Arezzo?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Benevento and Arezzo will score (BTTS).
Will Benevento vs Arezzo have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Benevento and Arezzo?
• No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset
What form are Benevento and Arezzo in?
• Form data is not yet available for either side
What do the betting odds say about Benevento vs Arezzo?
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture