Juve Stabia vs Sampdoria – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Juve Stabia at 57%, yet other data sources diverge — this Juve Stabia vs Sampdoria fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Juve Stabia host Sampdoria at Stadio Romeo Menti in Serie B, Regular Season - 20. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 9 January 2027 at 14:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Juve Stabia — All Games: 3W 4D 3L from 10 Serie B outings this season, averaging 1.30 points per game. Last five: L D D D W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Juve Stabia have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Stadio Romeo Menti, Juve Stabia have gone 3W 5D 2L this season (10 games, 1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Sampdoria stand at 2W 2D 6L from 10 Serie B matches — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L L W L L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Sampdoria have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Sampdoria's away record: 1W 3D 6L from 10 road trips in Serie B this season (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game.
Juve Stabia are in the better shape of the two on current Serie B data — 0.50 PPG ahead (1.30 vs 0.80). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 5 previous meetings, Juve Stabia have won 2, Sampdoria 1, with 2 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.8 per contest from 5 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 29 Aug 2026, ended 2–1 with Juve Stabia winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.8 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Juve Stabia in-play and half-time data (45 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games).
Sampdoria in-play and half-time data (45 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Juve Stabia 58% versus Sampdoria 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Juve Stabia 47% | Sampdoria 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Juve Stabia 1.83 xG and Sampdoria 0.95 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Juve Stabia attack 1.039 / defence 0.931 | Sampdoria attack 0.813 / defence 1.304. League average goals — home 1.353 / away 1.261. Sampdoria bring a strong defensive rating of 1.304 — this is suppressing Juve Stabia's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 45 Juve Stabia games / 45 Sampdoria games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Juve Stabia 57% | Draw 25% | Sampdoria 18%. Fair-value odds: Juve Stabia 1.75 | Draw 4.00 | Sampdoria 5.56. The model has a clear lean to Juve Stabia (57%) — a 39pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.79. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.79 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Juve Stabia at 57% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.79 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 53% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 1.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 53%. Form rates corroborate: Juve Stabia 60% | Sampdoria 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Juve Stabia vs Sampdoria | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Stadio Romeo Menti • Kick-off: Saturday 9 Jan 2027, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Juve Stabia 57% | Draw 25% | Sampdoria 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 53% | xG Juve Stabia 1.83 / Sampdoria 0.95 • Poisson strength factors: Juve Stabia attack 1.039 / def 0.931 | Sampdoria attack 0.813 / def 1.304 | league avg home 1.353 / away 1.261 • Poisson stance: Juve Stabia (57%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.83
Juve Stabia xG
Expected Goals
0.95
Sampdoria xG
53%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Juve Stabia vs Sampdoria kick off?
Juve Stabia vs Sampdoria is scheduled to kick off at 14:00 on Saturday 9 January 2027 at Stadio Romeo Menti.
Where is Juve Stabia vs Sampdoria being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Romeo Menti.
What competition is Juve Stabia vs Sampdoria part of?
Juve Stabia vs Sampdoria is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Juve Stabia vs Sampdoria?
Our statistical model gives Juve Stabia a 57% chance of winning, Sampdoria a 18% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Juve Stabia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Juve Stabia vs Sampdoria?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Juve Stabia and Sampdoria will score (BTTS).
Will Juve Stabia vs Sampdoria have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Juve Stabia and Sampdoria?
Record (5 meetings): Juve Stabia 2W | Draws 2 | Sampdoria 1W.
What form are Juve Stabia and Sampdoria in?
Juve Stabia (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-D-D-D-W. Sampdoria (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Juve Stabia's attacking strength (1.04x league average) is weighed against Sampdoria's defensive record (1.30x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.83. The same calculation in reverse, Sampdoria's attack versus Juve Stabia's defence, projects 0.95 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 45/45 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.2%. Close behind: 2-0 (10.3%), 1-0 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Juve Stabia Win
57%
1.77
25%
3.93
18%
5.57
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
11.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
10.8%
Draw
2 – 0
10.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.83
Juve Stabia xG
Total xG
2.79
0.95
Sampdoria xG
1.77
57%
Home win
3.93
25%
Draw
5.57
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.88
47%
BTTS No
2.13
Clean Sheet
38%
2.60
16%
6.25
Win to Nil
22%
4.59
3%
34.85
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.2 | 5.9 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 11.3 | 10.8 | 5.1 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.3 | 9.9 | 4.7 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.3 | 6.0 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.9 | 2.8 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.1 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Juve Stabia vs Sampdoria?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.2%.
How many goals are Juve Stabia and Sampdoria expected to score?
The model projects 1.83 expected goals for Juve Stabia and 0.95 for Sampdoria, a combined total of 2.79.
How confident is the prediction model for Juve Stabia vs Sampdoria?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 57%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Juve Stabia's recent record stands at 14W 19D 12L from 45 games, a 1.36 PPG return, with L-D-D-D-W in the last five. It's still early in the season for Juve Stabia, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Sampdoria, meanwhile, have gone 12W 12D 21L across 45 games — 1.07 PPG, with L-L-W-L-L in their last five. It's still early in the season for Sampdoria, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Juve Stabia on 1.36 PPG, Sampdoria on 1.07. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Juve Stabia have managed 9W 9D 3L from 21 games — 1.71 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Sampdoria's away record stands at 2W 7D 12L across 21 trips, a 0.62 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.07 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Sampdoria's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Juve Stabia come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Juve Stabia are averaging 1.22 goals scored and 1.24 conceded per game recently; Sampdoria are on 0.93 scored and 1.40 conceded.
Last 45 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Juve Stabia
Early Season
Sampdoria
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Juve Stabia and Sampdoria in coming into this match?
Juve Stabia have gone 14W 19D 12L in their last 45 games (1.36 PPG), while Sampdoria have gone 12W 12D 21L in their last 45 (1.07 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Juve Stabia at home or Sampdoria away?
Juve Stabia's home record (1.71 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Juve Stabia at home: 1.71 PPG; Sampdoria away: 0.62 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
5 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. The two were last together as recently as 29 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
Juve Stabia's record when hosting Sampdoria specifically: 0W 2D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 5 Meetings
2
Juve Stabia
2
Draws
1
Sampdoria
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Juve Stabia and Sampdoria?
From 5 meetings on record, Juve Stabia have won 2, Sampdoria have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Juve Stabia and Sampdoria last play each other?
They last met on 29 August 2026, when Sampdoria 1-2 Juve Stabia.
Who has won more matches between Juve Stabia and Sampdoria?
Juve Stabia have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 5 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Juve Stabia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 48% of the time.
Sampdoria see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Juve Stabia 52%, Sampdoria 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (Juve Stabia) and 43% (Sampdoria).
On the defensive side: Juve Stabia keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Sampdoria in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Juve Stabia home games / Sampdoria away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Juve Stabia play Sampdoria?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 52% of Juve Stabia's games and 62% of Sampdoria's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Juve Stabia vs Sampdoria usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of Juve Stabia's recent games and 43% of Sampdoria's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Juve Stabia and Sampdoria tend to score early?
Juve Stabia have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, Sampdoria in 57% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.