Spezia 0-1 Reggiana – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Spezia at 36% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Spezia vs Reggiana encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Spezia host Reggiana at Stadio Alberto Picco in Serie B (matchday 27). Kick-off is Saturday 28 February 2026 at 16:15 UK time.
Form Guide
Spezia — last 10 games: 3W 2D 5L, averaging 1.10 points per game. Last five: L D D L W. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
Spezia at home: 3W 3D 4L from their last 10 home games — 1.20 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across their last 10 games, Reggiana have recorded 1W 3D 6L — 0.60 PPG. Last five: D L W D D. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Reggiana's form when playing away from home: 2W 2D 6L across their last 10 road games (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Spezia carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.50 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.10 vs 0.60. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Both teams have scored in 60% of Spezia's games and 60% of Reggiana's (from Spezia's last 10 home games and Reggiana's last 10 away games) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
The H2H picture is flat: the 5 H2H matches we hold have produced 1 wins for Spezia, 2 for Reggiana and 2 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here.
The 5 H2H matches in our data have been tight, averaging just 1.8 goals per game — a meaningful input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent of those, on 30 Sep 2025, ended Spezia 1–1 Reggiana — a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.8 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Spezia in-play and half-time data (last 64 games, 32 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 84% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; of the 17 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 35%; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games).
Reggiana in-play and half-time data (last 64 games, 32 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 69% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; of the 14 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 36%; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Spezia 47% versus Reggiana 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Spezia 38% | Reggiana 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Spezia 1.07 xG and Reggiana 1.00 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Spezia attack 0.764 / defence 1.089 | Reggiana attack 0.824 / defence 1.117. League average goals — home 1.254 / away 1.116. Spezia's attack rating of 0.764 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.07. Data: built from Spezia's last 64 games and Reggiana's last 64.
Result probabilities: Spezia 36% | Draw 32% | Reggiana 32%. Fair-value odds: Spezia 2.79 | Draw 3.12 | Reggiana 3.11. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS Yes probability 43% | Total xG 2.07. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.07 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No at 57% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Spezia are the pick at 36% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Spezia offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.07 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 66% — reasonable conviction, supported by the H2H data averaging 1.8 goals per game across 5 H2H matches.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 57% on No. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: Spezia 60% (last 10 home games) | Reggiana 60% (last 10 away games), a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Spezia vs Reggiana | Competition: Serie B, matchday 27 | Venue: Stadio Alberto Picco • Kick-off: Saturday 28 February 2026 at 16:15 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Spezia 36% | Draw 32% | Reggiana 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 34% (Under 66%) | BTTS Yes 43% (No 57%) | xG Spezia 1.07 / Reggiana 1.00 • Poisson strength factors: Spezia attack 0.764 / def 1.089 | Reggiana attack 0.824 / def 1.117 | league avg home 1.254 / away 1.116 • Poisson stance: Spezia (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.07
Spezia xG
Expected Goals
1.00
Reggiana xG
43%
BTTS
62%
Over 1.5
34%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Spezia vs Reggiana FAQs
What time does Spezia vs Reggiana kick off?
Spezia vs Reggiana kicked off at 16:15 UK time on Saturday 28 February 2026 at Stadio Alberto Picco.
What was the final score in Spezia vs Reggiana?
Spezia 0 - 1 Reggiana.
Where is Spezia vs Reggiana being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Alberto Picco.
What competition is Spezia vs Reggiana part of?
Spezia vs Reggiana is a Serie B fixture (matchday 27) (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Spezia vs Reggiana?
Our statistical model gives Spezia a 36% chance of winning, Reggiana a 32% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Spezia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Spezia vs Reggiana?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Spezia and Reggiana will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (57%).
Will Spezia vs Reggiana have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 34%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (66%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Spezia's attacking strength (0.76x league average) is weighed against Reggiana's defensive record (1.12x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.07. The same calculation in reverse, Reggiana's attack versus Spezia's defence, projects 1.00 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Spezia's last 64 games and Reggiana's last 64 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.3%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.3%), 1-0 (11.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Spezia Win
36%
2.79
32%
3.12
32%
3.11
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.5%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
0 – 0
12.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.07
Spezia xG
Total xG
2.07
1.00
Reggiana xG
2.79
36%
Home win
3.12
32%
Draw
3.11
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
34%
Over 2.5
2.94
66%
Under 2.5
1.52
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.35
57%
BTTS No
1.74
Clean Sheet
37%
2.72
34%
2.92
Win to Nil
13%
7.61
11%
9.08
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.6 | 12.6 | 6.3 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.5 | 13.5 | 6.8 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.2 | 7.2 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 2.6 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Spezia vs Reggiana Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Spezia vs Reggiana?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.3%.
How many goals are Spezia and Reggiana expected to score?
The model projects 1.07 expected goals for Spezia and 1.00 for Reggiana, a combined total of 2.07.
How confident is the prediction model for Spezia vs Reggiana?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Spezia's recent record stands at 23W 21D 20L from 64 games, a 1.41 PPG return, with L-D-D-L-W in the last five.
Reggiana, meanwhile, have gone 17W 19D 28L across 64 games — 1.09 PPG, with D-L-W-D-D in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Spezia on 1.41 PPG, Reggiana on 1.09. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Spezia have managed 14W 8D 10L from their last 32 home games — 1.56 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Reggiana's away record stands at 7W 8D 17L across their last 32 away games, a 0.91 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Spezia come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Spezia are averaging 1.28 goals scored and 1.05 conceded per game recently; Reggiana are on 1.09 scored and 1.38 conceded.
Defensively: Spezia have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 64 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Spezia
Blended
Reggiana
Blended
Spezia (Home) vs Reggiana (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Spezia
Blended
Reggiana
Blended
❓ Spezia vs Reggiana Form FAQs
What form are Spezia and Reggiana in coming into this match?
Spezia have gone 23W 21D 20L in their last 64 games (1.41 PPG), while Reggiana have gone 17W 19D 28L in their last 64 (1.09 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Spezia at home or Reggiana away?
Spezia's home record (1.56 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Spezia at home: 1.56 PPG; Reggiana away: 0.91 PPG.
Have Spezia or Reggiana been keeping clean sheets recently?
Spezia have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, Reggiana in 22%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 6 H2H matches in our data, going back to September 2023. All of them came in Serie B. The most recent was on 28 February 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Spezia's record when hosting Reggiana specifically: 1W 0D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Spezia
2
Draws
3
Reggiana
Recent Meetings
❓ Spezia vs Reggiana H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Spezia and Reggiana?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Spezia have won 1, Reggiana have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Spezia and Reggiana last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 28 February 2026: Spezia 0-1 Reggiana.
Who has won more matches between Spezia and Reggiana?
Reggiana have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Spezia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 84% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 22% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Reggiana are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Spezia 53%, Reggiana 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Spezia) and 47% (Reggiana).
On the defensive side: Spezia keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; Reggiana in 28%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Spezia home games / Reggiana away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Spezia vs Reggiana Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Spezia and Reggiana matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 53% of Spezia's games and 59% of Reggiana's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Spezia and Reggiana matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Spezia's recent games and 47% of Reggiana's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Spezia and Reggiana matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 84% of Spezia's recent matches and 69% of Reggiana's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Reggiana defy the odds to beat Spezia 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Reggiana beat Spezia 0-1 at Stadio Alberto Picco, Regular Season - 27, in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Spezia 1.07 xG and Reggiana 1.00 xG, a combined 2.07. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Spezia fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Spezia attack 0.76 / defence 1.09 against Reggiana attack 0.82 / defence 1.12, drawn from 64/64 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Spezia 36% | Draw 32% | Reggiana 32%, with Spezia to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual Reggiana win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 62% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Spezia 38%, Reggiana 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Spezia's trading profile (64 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Reggiana's trading profile (64 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Spezia 1.41 PPG, Reggiana 1.09 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Reggiana win broke the near-deadlock. Spezia (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.44 scoring average — below par going forward. Reggiana (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.53 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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