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Frosinone cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Spezia.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Frosinone beat Spezia 0-2 at Stadio Alberto Picco, Regular Season - 25, in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Spezia 0.93 xG and Frosinone 1.48 xG, a combined 2.41. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Spezia fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Spezia attack 0.80 / defence 1.08 against Frosinone attack 1.30 / defence 0.91, drawn from 62/62 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Spezia 23% | Draw 28% | Frosinone 49%, with Frosinone to win its most likely call at 49%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Spezia 37%, Frosinone 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Spezia's trading profile (62 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Frosinone's trading profile (62 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Spezia 1.40 PPG, Frosinone 1.48 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Frosinone win broke the near-deadlock. Spezia (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.48 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.10 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Frosinone (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.19 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.10 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.

💡 Key Insights