Spezia 0-2 Frosinone – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Frosinone at 49% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Spezia vs Frosinone encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Spezia welcome Frosinone to Stadio Alberto Picco in Serie B (matchday 25). Kick-off is Sunday 15 February 2026 at 14:00 UK time.
Form Guide
Spezia — last 10 games: 3W 2D 5L, averaging 1.10 points per game. Last five: L W L D D. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
Spezia at home: 3W 3D 4L from their last 10 home games — 1.20 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across their last 10 games, Frosinone have recorded 6W 3D 1L — 2.10 PPG. Last five: D W D L W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 0.90. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Frosinone's form when playing away from home: 5W 4D 1L across their last 10 road games (1.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Form points away from home here. Frosinone's 2.10 PPG return is 1.00 points per game ahead of Spezia's 1.10 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Both teams have scored in at least 70% of each side's games (from Spezia's last 10 home games and Frosinone's last 10 away games). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
Head to Head
The H2H picture is flat: the 3 H2H matches we hold have produced 1 wins for Spezia, 1 for Frosinone and 1 draw. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 3 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 3.3 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 20 Dec 2025, ended Spezia 1–2 Frosinone — a Frosinone win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.3 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Spezia in-play tendencies (last 62 games, 31 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 84% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; of the 17 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 35%; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (home games).
Frosinone in-play tendencies (last 62 games, 31 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 71% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; of the 24 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 42%; of the 15 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Spezia 47% versus Frosinone 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Spezia 37% | Frosinone 47%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Spezia surrender their half-time lead 35% of the time, while Frosinone have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 33% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Spezia 0.93 xG and Frosinone 1.48 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Spezia attack 0.802 / defence 1.081 | Frosinone attack 1.299 / defence 0.910. League average goals — home 1.278 / away 1.052. Frosinone have an above-average attack rating of 1.299, which lifts their away xG to 1.48. Data: built from Spezia's last 62 games and Frosinone's last 62.
Result probabilities: Spezia 23% | Draw 28% | Frosinone 49%. Fair-value odds: Spezia 4.31 | Draw 3.63 | Frosinone 2.03. Frosinone hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS Yes probability 47% | Total xG 2.41. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.41 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 53% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Frosinone are the pick at 49% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Frosinone offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.41 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 57% — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 3.3 goals per game across 3 H2H matches points the other way.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 53% on No. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: Spezia 70% (last 10 home games) | Frosinone 70% (last 10 away games), a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Spezia vs Frosinone | Competition: Serie B, matchday 25 | Venue: Stadio Alberto Picco • Kick-off: Sunday 15 February 2026 at 14:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Spezia 23% | Draw 28% | Frosinone 49% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% (Under 57%) | BTTS Yes 47% (No 53%) | xG Spezia 0.93 / Frosinone 1.48 • Poisson strength factors: Spezia attack 0.802 / def 1.081 | Frosinone attack 1.299 / def 0.910 | league avg home 1.278 / away 1.052 • Poisson stance: Frosinone (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.93
Spezia xG
Expected Goals
1.48
Frosinone xG
47%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Spezia vs Frosinone FAQs
What time does Spezia vs Frosinone kick off?
Spezia vs Frosinone kicked off at 14:00 UK time on Sunday 15 February 2026 at Stadio Alberto Picco.
What was the final score in Spezia vs Frosinone?
Spezia 0 - 2 Frosinone.
Where is Spezia vs Frosinone being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Alberto Picco.
What competition is Spezia vs Frosinone part of?
Spezia vs Frosinone is a Serie B fixture (matchday 25) (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Spezia vs Frosinone?
Our statistical model gives Spezia a 23% chance of winning, Frosinone a 49% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Frosinone the favourite.
Will both teams score in Spezia vs Frosinone?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Spezia and Frosinone will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (53%).
Will Spezia vs Frosinone have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (57%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Spezia's attacking strength (0.80x league average) is weighed against Frosinone's defensive record (0.91x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.93. The same calculation in reverse, Frosinone's attack versus Spezia's defence, projects 1.48 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Spezia's last 62 games and Frosinone's last 62 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.0%. Close behind: 0-1 (11.7%), 0-0 (10.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Frosinone Win
23%
4.31
28%
3.63
49%
2.03
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.3%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
0 – 2
9.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.93
Spezia xG
Total xG
2.41
1.48
Frosinone xG
4.31
23%
Home win
3.63
28%
Draw
2.03
49%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.11
53%
BTTS No
1.90
Clean Sheet
23%
4.38
39%
2.54
Win to Nil
5%
18.88
19%
5.16
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.0 | 13.3 | 9.8 | 4.8 | 1.8 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 8.4 | 12.4 | 9.1 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 3.9 | 5.8 | 4.3 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.2 | 1.8 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Spezia vs Frosinone Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Spezia vs Frosinone?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Spezia and Frosinone expected to score?
The model projects 0.93 expected goals for Spezia and 1.48 for Frosinone, a combined total of 2.41.
How confident is the prediction model for Spezia vs Frosinone?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Spezia come into this having played 62 games, going 22W 21D 19L for 1.40 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-L-D-D.
On the other side, Frosinone sit at 1.48 PPG from 62 outings (23W 23D 16L), a run that reads D-W-D-L-W across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Spezia on 1.40 PPG, Frosinone on 1.48. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Spezia's home form reads 14W 8D 9L across their last 31 home games, a 1.61 PPG return.
Away from home, Frosinone have taken 1.52 points per game from their last 31 away games (12W 11D 8L).
The Goals Picture
Spezia are averaging 1.27 goals scored and 1.02 conceded per game recently; Frosinone are on 1.31 scored and 1.16 conceded.
Defensively: Spezia have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 62 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Spezia
Blended
Frosinone
Blended
Spezia (Home) vs Frosinone (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Spezia
Blended
Frosinone
Blended
❓ Spezia vs Frosinone Form FAQs
What form are Spezia and Frosinone in coming into this match?
Spezia have gone 22W 21D 19L in their last 62 games (1.40 PPG), while Frosinone have gone 23W 23D 16L in their last 62 (1.48 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Spezia at home or Frosinone away?
Spezia's home record (1.61 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Spezia at home: 1.61 PPG; Frosinone away: 1.52 PPG.
Have Spezia or Frosinone been keeping clean sheets recently?
Spezia have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their recent games, Frosinone in 27%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 4 H2H matches in our data, going back to August 2024. All of them came in Serie B. The most recent was on 15 February 2026, roughly 9 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear recent trend here: Frosinone have taken the most recent 2 H2H results in our data.
Spezia's record when hosting Frosinone specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Spezia
1
Draws
2
Frosinone
Recent Meetings
❓ Spezia vs Frosinone H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Spezia and Frosinone?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Spezia have won 1, Frosinone have won 2, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Spezia and Frosinone last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 15 February 2026: Spezia 0-2 Frosinone.
Who has won more matches between Spezia and Frosinone?
Frosinone have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 4 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Spezia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 84% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 22% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Frosinone are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Spezia 55%, Frosinone 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 45% (Spezia) and 36% (Frosinone).
On the defensive side: Spezia keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Frosinone in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Spezia home games / Frosinone away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Spezia vs Frosinone Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Spezia and Frosinone matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 55% of Spezia's recent matches and 52% of Frosinone's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Spezia and Frosinone matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 45% of Spezia's recent games and 36% of Frosinone's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Spezia and Frosinone matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 84% of Spezia's recent matches and 71% of Frosinone's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Frosinone cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Spezia.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Frosinone beat Spezia 0-2 at Stadio Alberto Picco, Regular Season - 25, in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Spezia 0.93 xG and Frosinone 1.48 xG, a combined 2.41. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Spezia fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Spezia attack 0.80 / defence 1.08 against Frosinone attack 1.30 / defence 0.91, drawn from 62/62 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Spezia 23% | Draw 28% | Frosinone 49%, with Frosinone to win its most likely call at 49%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Spezia 37%, Frosinone 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Spezia's trading profile (62 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Frosinone's trading profile (62 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Spezia 1.40 PPG, Frosinone 1.48 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Frosinone win broke the near-deadlock. Spezia (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.48 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.10 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Frosinone (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.19 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.10 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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