Sampdoria 2-0 Lecco – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sampdoria at 39% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Sampdoria face Lecco.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Sampdoria welcome Lecco to Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris in Serie B (matchday 16). Kick-off is Saturday 9 December 2023 at 13:00 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Sampdoria have gone 4W 2D 4L — a 1.40 PPG return. Last five: L W W W L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Sampdoria at home: 3W 2D 5L from their last 10 home games — 1.10 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Lecco stand at 4W 3D 3L — 1.50 PPG. Last five: D W L D W. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
Lecco away from home: 2W 3D 3L from their last 8 away games — 1.12 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.75 goals scored and 1.12 conceded per game.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.40 PPG (Sampdoria) versus 1.50 (Lecco). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
In-Play Data
Sampdoria trading profile (last 15 games, 7 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 71% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; of the 5 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 40%; of the 5 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 40%; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games).
Lecco trading profile (last 15 games, 7 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 86% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 40% of the time; of the 4 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games); they fail to score in 47% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sampdoria 67% versus Lecco 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sampdoria 47% | Lecco 47%). Note also that Lecco surrender HT leads in 25% of cases while Sampdoria recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 40% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sampdoria 1.15 xG and Lecco 0.92 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sampdoria attack 0.997 / defence 1.108 | Lecco attack 0.717 / defence 1.054. League average goals — home 1.092 / away 1.152. Lecco's attack rating of 0.717 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.92. Data: built from Sampdoria's last 15 games and Lecco's last 15.
Result probabilities: Sampdoria 39% | Draw 33% | Lecco 27%. Fair-value odds: Sampdoria 2.54 | Draw 3.02 | Lecco 3.64. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS Yes probability 42% | Total xG 2.06. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.06 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No at 58% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Sampdoria at 39% — marginal model lean. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Sampdoria offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.06 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 66% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Sampdoria's last 10 home games and Lecco's last 8 away games) averaging 2.2 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 58% on No. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Sampdoria 60% (last 10 home games) | Lecco 50% (last 8 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sampdoria vs Lecco | Competition: Serie B, matchday 16 | Venue: Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris • Kick-off: Saturday 9 December 2023 at 13:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sampdoria 39% | Draw 33% | Lecco 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 34% (Under 66%) | BTTS Yes 42% (No 58%) | xG Sampdoria 1.15 / Lecco 0.92 • Poisson strength factors: Sampdoria attack 0.997 / def 1.108 | Lecco attack 0.717 / def 1.054 | league avg home 1.092 / away 1.152 • Poisson stance: Sampdoria (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.15
Sampdoria xG
Expected Goals
0.92
Lecco xG
42%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
34%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Sampdoria vs Lecco FAQs
What time does Sampdoria vs Lecco kick off?
Sampdoria vs Lecco kicked off at 13:00 UK time on Saturday 9 December 2023 at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris.
What was the final score in Sampdoria vs Lecco?
Sampdoria 2 - 0 Lecco.
Where is Sampdoria vs Lecco being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris.
What competition is Sampdoria vs Lecco part of?
Sampdoria vs Lecco is a Serie B fixture (matchday 16) (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Sampdoria vs Lecco?
Our statistical model gives Sampdoria a 39% chance of winning, Lecco a 27% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Sampdoria the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sampdoria vs Lecco?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Sampdoria and Lecco will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (58%).
Will Sampdoria vs Lecco have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 34%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (66%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Sampdoria's attacking strength (1.00x league average) is weighed against Lecco's defensive record (1.05x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.15. The same calculation in reverse, Lecco's attack versus Sampdoria's defence, projects 0.92 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Sampdoria's last 15 games and Lecco's last 15 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.5%), 1-0 (12.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sampdoria Win
39%
2.54
33%
3.02
27%
3.64
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
0 – 0
12.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.15
Sampdoria xG
Total xG
2.06
0.92
Lecco xG
2.54
39%
Home win
3.02
33%
Draw
3.64
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
34%
Over 2.5
2.94
66%
Under 2.5
1.52
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.36
58%
BTTS No
1.74
Clean Sheet
40%
2.50
32%
3.15
Win to Nil
16%
6.33
9%
11.45
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.7 | 11.7 | 5.3 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.6 | 13.4 | 6.1 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.4 | 7.7 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 3.2 | 2.9 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Sampdoria vs Lecco Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Sampdoria vs Lecco?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Sampdoria and Lecco expected to score?
The model projects 1.15 expected goals for Sampdoria and 0.92 for Lecco, a combined total of 2.06.
How confident is the prediction model for Sampdoria vs Lecco?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Sampdoria's recent record stands at 5W 3D 7L from 15 games, a 1.20 PPG return, with L-W-W-W-L in the last five.
Lecco, meanwhile, have gone 4W 4D 7L across 15 games — 1.07 PPG, with D-W-L-D-W in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Sampdoria on 1.20 PPG, Lecco on 1.07. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Sampdoria have managed 3W 0D 4L from their last 7 home games — 1.29 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Lecco's away record stands at 2W 2D 3L across their last 7 away games, a 1.14 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Sampdoria are averaging 1.13 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game recently; Lecco are on 0.93 scored and 1.40 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Sampdoria have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games.
Last 15 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sampdoria
Blended
Lecco
Blended
Sampdoria (Home) vs Lecco (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Sampdoria
Blended
Lecco
Blended
❓ Sampdoria vs Lecco Form FAQs
What form are Sampdoria and Lecco in coming into this match?
Sampdoria have gone 5W 3D 7L in their last 15 games (1.20 PPG), while Lecco have gone 4W 4D 7L in their last 15 (1.07 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sampdoria at home or Lecco away?
Sampdoria's home record (1.29 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sampdoria at home: 1.29 PPG; Lecco away: 1.14 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 2 H2H matches in our data, going back to December 2023. All of them came in Serie B. The most recent in our data was on 1 May 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
2
Sampdoria
0
Draws
0
Lecco
Recent Meetings
❓ Sampdoria vs Lecco H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Sampdoria and Lecco?
Across the 2 head-to-head matches in our data, Sampdoria have won 2, Lecco have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Sampdoria and Lecco last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 1 May 2024: Lecco 0-1 Sampdoria.
Who has won more matches between Sampdoria and Lecco?
Sampdoria have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 2 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Sampdoria are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 50% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Lecco are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sampdoria 57%, Lecco 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (Sampdoria) and 57% (Lecco). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 0% and 0% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Lecco in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sampdoria home games / Lecco away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Sampdoria vs Lecco Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Sampdoria and Lecco matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 57% of Sampdoria's games and 57% of Lecco's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Sampdoria and Lecco matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 57% of Sampdoria's matches and 57% of Lecco's.
Do Sampdoria and Lecco matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 71% of Sampdoria's recent matches and 86% of Lecco's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Sampdoria cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Lecco.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sampdoria beat Lecco 2-0 at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris, Regular Season - 16, in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sampdoria 1.15 xG and Lecco 0.92 xG, a combined 2.06. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Sampdoria beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Lecco landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sampdoria attack 1.00 / defence 1.11 against Lecco attack 0.72 / defence 1.05, drawn from 15/15 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sampdoria 39% | Draw 33% | Lecco 27%, with Sampdoria to win its most likely call at 39%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 63% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sampdoria 47%, Lecco 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sampdoria's trading profile (15 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not.
Lecco's trading profile (15 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 47% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Sampdoria 1.20 PPG, Lecco 1.07 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Sampdoria win broke the near-deadlock. Sampdoria (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.14 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.29 average — tighter than their form line. Lecco (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.86 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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