Cosenza 1-1 Benevento – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Benevento at 41% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Cosenza vs Benevento encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Cosenza host Benevento at Stadio San Vito-Luigi Marulla in Serie B, Regular Season - 20. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 15 January 2023 at 15:15 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Cosenza stand at 1W 3D 6L from 10 Serie B matches — 0.60 PPG. Last five: D D L L L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 2.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Cosenza, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Cosenza have posted 4W 2D 4L at Stadio San Vito-Luigi Marulla — 1.40 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.60 — Cosenza are significantly better at Stadio San Vito-Luigi Marulla than their overall form suggests.
Benevento — All Games: 3W 4D 3L from 10 Serie B fixtures this season — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L W W D L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Benevento, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Benevento's away record: 3W 4D 3L from 10 road trips in Serie B this season (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Benevento — 0.70 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.30 vs 0.60). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 3 previous meetings, Cosenza have won 2, Benevento 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The last 3 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.7 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 14 Aug 2022, ended 1–0 with Cosenza winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.7 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Cosenza in-play tendencies (59 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
Benevento in-play tendencies (59 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 28% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cosenza 54% versus Benevento 42%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Cosenza 42% | Benevento 36%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cosenza 1.07 xG and Benevento 1.32 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cosenza attack 1.007 / defence 1.191 | Benevento attack 1.019 / defence 0.922. League average goals — home 1.154 / away 1.088. Data: 57 Cosenza games / 57 Benevento games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cosenza 29% | Draw 30% | Benevento 41%. Fair-value odds: Cosenza 3.45 | Draw 3.33 | Benevento 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.39. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.39 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Benevento as the most likely outcome at 41% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Benevento offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.39 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 43% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by H2H averaging 1.7 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 49%. This conflicts with form data: Cosenza 70% | Benevento 50% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cosenza vs Benevento | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Stadio San Vito-Luigi Marulla • Kick-off: Sunday 15 Jan 2023, 15:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cosenza 29% | Draw 30% | Benevento 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 49% | xG Cosenza 1.07 / Benevento 1.32 • Poisson strength factors: Cosenza attack 1.007 / def 1.191 | Benevento attack 1.019 / def 0.922 | league avg home 1.154 / away 1.088 • Poisson stance: Benevento (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.07
Cosenza xG
Expected Goals
1.32
Benevento xG
49%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cosenza vs Benevento kick off?
Cosenza vs Benevento kicked off at 15:15 on Sunday 15 January 2023 at Stadio San Vito-Luigi Marulla.
What was the final score in Cosenza vs Benevento?
Cosenza 1 - 1 Benevento.
Where is Cosenza vs Benevento being played?
The match is being played at Stadio San Vito-Luigi Marulla.
What competition is Cosenza vs Benevento part of?
Cosenza vs Benevento is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Cosenza vs Benevento?
Our statistical model gives Cosenza a 29% chance of winning, Benevento a 41% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Benevento the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cosenza vs Benevento?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Cosenza and Benevento will score (BTTS).
Will Cosenza vs Benevento have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cosenza and Benevento?
Record (3 meetings): Cosenza 2W | Draws 0 | Benevento 1W.
What form are Cosenza and Benevento in?
Cosenza (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 2.10 | L5 D-D-L-L-L. Benevento (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-W-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Cosenza's attacking strength (1.01x league average) is weighed against Benevento's defensive record (0.92x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.07. The same calculation in reverse, Benevento's attack versus Cosenza's defence, projects 1.32 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 57/57 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.6%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.8%), 0-1 (10.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Benevento Win
29%
3.44
30%
3.34
41%
2.44
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.1%
Away win
1 – 0
9.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.07
Cosenza xG
Total xG
2.39
1.32
Benevento xG
3.44
29%
Home win
3.34
30%
Draw
2.44
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.02
51%
BTTS No
1.98
Clean Sheet
27%
3.74
34%
2.92
Win to Nil
8%
12.89
14%
7.12
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.1 | 12.1 | 8.0 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.8 | 12.9 | 8.5 | 3.8 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.3 | 6.9 | 4.6 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 2.5 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cosenza vs Benevento?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Cosenza and Benevento expected to score?
The model projects 1.07 expected goals for Cosenza and 1.32 for Benevento, a combined total of 2.39.
How confident is the prediction model for Cosenza vs Benevento?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Cosenza come into this having played 59 games, going 13W 16D 30L for 0.93 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-L-L-L. The sample for Cosenza is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Benevento sit at 1.49 PPG from 59 outings (24W 16D 19L), a run that reads L-W-W-D-L across their last five. The sample for Benevento is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Benevento carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.56 PPG clear of Cosenza — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Cosenza's home form reads 12W 5D 12L across 29 games on their own ground, a 1.41 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 0.93 PPG overall — Cosenza are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Benevento have taken 1.55 points per game from 29 outings (12W 9D 8L).
The Goals Picture
Cosenza are averaging 0.93 goals scored and 1.56 conceded per game recently; Benevento are on 1.31 scored and 0.97 conceded.
Last 59 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cosenza
Blended
Benevento
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cosenza and Benevento in coming into this match?
Cosenza have gone 13W 16D 30L in their last 59 games (0.93 PPG), while Benevento have gone 24W 16D 19L in their last 59 (1.49 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cosenza at home or Benevento away?
Benevento's away record (1.55 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cosenza at home: 1.41 PPG; Benevento away: 1.55 PPG.
Have Cosenza or Benevento been keeping clean sheets recently?
Cosenza have kept a clean sheet in 15% of their recent games, Benevento in 34%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Cosenza and Benevento runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 15 January 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 23 Oct 2021, when Benevento won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Cosenza's record when hosting Benevento specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Cosenza
1
Draws
1
Benevento
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cosenza and Benevento?
From 4 meetings on record, Cosenza have won 2, Benevento have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Cosenza and Benevento last play each other?
They last met on 15 January 2023, when Cosenza 1-1 Benevento.
Who has won more matches between Cosenza and Benevento?
Cosenza have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Cosenza are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches.
Benevento are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cosenza 55%, Benevento 41% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Cosenza) and 28% (Benevento).
On the defensive side: Benevento in 34%; Cosenza have failed to score in 28% of games; Benevento in 28%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cosenza home games / Benevento away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cosenza play Benevento?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 55% of Cosenza's recent matches and 41% of Benevento's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Cosenza vs Benevento usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of Cosenza's recent games and 28% of Benevento's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Cosenza and Benevento tend to score early?
Cosenza have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, Benevento in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Cosenza and Benevento share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cosenza and Benevento finished level at 1-1 at Stadio San Vito-Luigi Marulla, Regular Season - 20, in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cosenza 1.07 xG and Benevento 1.32 xG, a combined 2.39. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cosenza attack 1.01 / defence 1.19 against Benevento attack 1.02 / defence 0.92, drawn from 57/57 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cosenza 29% | Draw 30% | Benevento 41%, with Benevento to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 39% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cosenza 42%, Benevento 36%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cosenza's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Benevento's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Benevento arrived the stronger side — 1.49 PPG against 0.93. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.