Sudtirol 2-2 Cagliari – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sudtirol at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Sudtirol vs Cagliari fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadio Marco Druso plays host to Sudtirol versus Cagliari in Serie B, Regular Season - 12. Kick-off: Saturday 5 November 2022 at 13:00 UTC.
Current Form
Sudtirol's overall Serie B record this term: 5W 3D 2L from 10 games (1.80 PPG). Last five: W D W W D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Sudtirol, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sudtirol's form when playing at home: 2W 2D 1L across 5 games at Stadio Marco Druso this term (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Cagliari have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Serie B outings this season: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: L D W L D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Cagliari, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Serie B this season, Cagliari have posted 1W 4D 5L from 10 away outings — 0.70 PPG. Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.80 for Sudtirol, 1.40 for Cagliari — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Trading
Sudtirol half-time and goal-timing data (11 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games).
Cagliari half-time and goal-timing data (11 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 20% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sudtirol 54% versus Cagliari 54%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Sudtirol 36% | Cagliari 36%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sudtirol 1.06 xG and Cagliari 0.88 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sudtirol attack 0.869 / defence 1.017 | Cagliari attack 0.772 / defence 0.968. League average goals — home 1.254 / away 1.117. Data: 11 Sudtirol games / 11 Cagliari games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sudtirol 38% | Draw 33% | Cagliari 29%. Fair-value odds: Sudtirol 2.63 | Draw 3.03 | Cagliari 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 31% | BTTS probability 39% | Total xG 1.93. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 69% probability — total xG of 1.93 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 39% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Sudtirol are the pick at 38% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 33% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Sudtirol if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 1.93 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 31% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 39% on No. This conflicts with form data: Sudtirol 80% | Cagliari 40% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sudtirol vs Cagliari | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Stadio Marco Druso • Kick-off: Saturday 5 Nov 2022, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sudtirol 38% | Draw 33% | Cagliari 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 31% | BTTS 39% | xG Sudtirol 1.06 / Cagliari 0.88 • Poisson strength factors: Sudtirol attack 0.869 / def 1.017 | Cagliari attack 0.772 / def 0.968 | league avg home 1.254 / away 1.117 • Poisson stance: Sudtirol (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.06
Sudtirol xG
Expected Goals
0.88
Cagliari xG
39%
BTTS
58%
Over 1.5
31%
Over 2.5
13%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sudtirol vs Cagliari kick off?
Sudtirol vs Cagliari kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 5 November 2022 at Stadio Marco Druso.
What was the final score in Sudtirol vs Cagliari?
Sudtirol 2 - 2 Cagliari.
Where is Sudtirol vs Cagliari being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Marco Druso.
What competition is Sudtirol vs Cagliari part of?
Sudtirol vs Cagliari is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Sudtirol vs Cagliari?
Our statistical model gives Sudtirol a 38% chance of winning, Cagliari a 29% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Sudtirol the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sudtirol vs Cagliari?
Our model estimates a 39% probability that both Sudtirol and Cagliari will score (BTTS).
Will Sudtirol vs Cagliari have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 31%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sudtirol and Cagliari?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Sudtirol and Cagliari in?
Sudtirol (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-D-W-W-D. Cagliari (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-D-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Sudtirol's attack at 0.87x the league average against Cagliari's defence at 0.97x — combine the two and it projects 1.06 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Cagliari's attack (0.77x) against Sudtirol's defence (1.02x) — and the away total comes out at 0.88.
These ratings are built from 11/11 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 16.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (15.1%), 1-0 (13.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 45% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sudtirol Win
38%
2.61
33%
3.04
29%
3.47
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.3%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
14.5%
Draw
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.06
Sudtirol xG
Total xG
1.93
0.88
Cagliari xG
2.61
38%
Home win
3.04
33%
Draw
3.47
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
58%
Over 1.5
1.72
42%
Under 1.5
2.38
31%
Over 2.5
3.23
69%
Under 2.5
1.45
13%
Over 3.5
7.69
87%
Under 3.5
1.15
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
39%
BTTS Yes
2.57
61%
BTTS No
1.64
Clean Sheet
42%
2.40
35%
2.87
Win to Nil
16%
6.28
10%
9.98
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.5 | 12.7 | 5.6 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 15.3 | 13.4 | 5.9 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.1 | 7.1 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 2.8 | 2.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sudtirol vs Cagliari?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.2%.
How many goals are Sudtirol and Cagliari expected to score?
The model projects 1.06 expected goals for Sudtirol and 0.88 for Cagliari, a combined total of 1.93.
How confident is the prediction model for Sudtirol vs Cagliari?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Sudtirol come into this having played 11 games, going 5W 3D 3L for 1.64 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-W-W-D. The sample for Sudtirol is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Cagliari sit at 1.36 PPG from 11 outings (4W 3D 4L), a run that reads L-D-W-L-D across their last five. The sample for Cagliari is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.64 PPG for Sudtirol against 1.36 for Cagliari. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Sudtirol's home form reads 2W 2D 1L across 5 games on their own ground, a 1.60 PPG return.
Away from home, Cagliari have taken 1.00 points per game from 5 outings (1W 2D 2L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sudtirol come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Sudtirol are averaging 1.09 goals scored and 1.18 conceded per game recently; Cagliari are on 1.00 scored and 1.09 conceded.
Last 11 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sudtirol
Blended
Cagliari
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sudtirol and Cagliari in coming into this match?
Sudtirol have gone 5W 3D 3L in their last 11 games (1.64 PPG), while Cagliari have gone 4W 3D 4L in their last 11 (1.36 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sudtirol at home or Cagliari away?
Sudtirol's home record (1.60 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sudtirol at home: 1.60 PPG; Cagliari away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 1 April 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Sudtirol
2
Draws
0
Cagliari
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sudtirol and Cagliari?
From 2 meetings on record, Sudtirol have won 0, Cagliari have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Sudtirol and Cagliari last play each other?
They last met on 1 April 2023, when Cagliari 1-1 Sudtirol.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Sudtirol are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Cagliari are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sudtirol 80%, Cagliari 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 40% for Sudtirol and 20% for Cagliari.
On the defensive side: Cagliari in 40%; Cagliari in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sudtirol home games / Cagliari away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sudtirol play Cagliari?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 80% of Sudtirol's games and 40% of Cagliari's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Sudtirol vs Cagliari usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Sudtirol's recent games and 20% of Cagliari's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sudtirol and Cagliari tend to score early?
Sudtirol have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Cagliari in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Sudtirol and Cagliari share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadio Marco Druso, Regular Season - 12, as Sudtirol and Cagliari drew 2-2 in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sudtirol 1.06 xG and Cagliari 0.88 xG, a combined 1.93. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Sudtirol beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Cagliari outscored their 0.88 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sudtirol attack 0.87 / defence 1.02 against Cagliari attack 0.77 / defence 0.97, drawn from 11/11 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sudtirol 38% | Draw 33% | Cagliari 29%, with Sudtirol to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 31%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 58% and landed. Over 3.5 was 13% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 36% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sudtirol 36%, Cagliari 36%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sudtirol's trading profile (11 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Cagliari's trading profile (11 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Sudtirol 1.64 PPG, Cagliari 1.36 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Sudtirol (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.20 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Cagliari (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.80 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 0.80 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.