Brescia 1-1 Ascoli – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Brescia at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Brescia vs Ascoli fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie B encounter, Regular Season - 12 sees Ascoli travel to Stadio Mario Rigamonti to take on Brescia. The game is scheduled for Saturday 5 November 2022, 13:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Brescia — All Games: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Serie B outings this season, averaging 1.50 points per game. Last five: L D L D D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Brescia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Brescia at Stadio Mario Rigamonti this season: 6W 3D 1L from 10 home games — 2.10 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.50 — Brescia are significantly better at Stadio Mario Rigamonti than their overall form suggests.
Across all Serie B games this season, Ascoli have recorded 4W 3D 3L from 10 outings — 1.50 PPG. Last five: D L W W W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Ascoli, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Ascoli's away record: 6W 1D 3L from 10 road trips in Serie B this season (1.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Brescia 1.50 PPG, Ascoli 1.50 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for Brescia, 0 for Ascoli and 0 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 2 meetings have averaged 3.5 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 23 Feb 2022, ended 2–0 with Brescia winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Brescia trading profile (50 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games).
Ascoli trading profile (50 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Brescia 58% versus Ascoli 52%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Brescia 38% | Ascoli 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Brescia 1.12 xG and Ascoli 1.03 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Brescia attack 1.069 / defence 0.848 | Ascoli attack 1.091 / defence 0.834. League average goals — home 1.254 / away 1.117. Data: 49 Brescia games / 49 Ascoli games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Brescia 37% | Draw 31% | Ascoli 32%. Fair-value odds: Brescia 2.70 | Draw 3.23 | Ascoli 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.15. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.15 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Brescia as the most likely outcome at 37% — marginal model lean. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Brescia offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.15 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 36% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 44% on No. Form rates corroborate: Brescia 60% | Ascoli 30% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Brescia vs Ascoli | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Stadio Mario Rigamonti • Kick-off: Saturday 5 Nov 2022, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Brescia 37% | Draw 31% | Ascoli 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% | BTTS 44% | xG Brescia 1.12 / Ascoli 1.03 • Poisson strength factors: Brescia attack 1.069 / def 0.848 | Ascoli attack 1.091 / def 0.834 | league avg home 1.254 / away 1.117 • Poisson stance: Brescia (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.12
Brescia xG
Expected Goals
1.03
Ascoli xG
44%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Brescia vs Ascoli kick off?
Brescia vs Ascoli kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 5 November 2022 at Stadio Mario Rigamonti.
What was the final score in Brescia vs Ascoli?
Brescia 1 - 1 Ascoli.
Where is Brescia vs Ascoli being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Mario Rigamonti.
What competition is Brescia vs Ascoli part of?
Brescia vs Ascoli is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Brescia vs Ascoli?
Our statistical model gives Brescia a 37% chance of winning, Ascoli a 32% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Brescia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Brescia vs Ascoli?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Brescia and Ascoli will score (BTTS).
Will Brescia vs Ascoli have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%.
What is the head-to-head record between Brescia and Ascoli?
Record (2 meetings): Brescia 2W | Draws 0 | Ascoli 0W.
What form are Brescia and Ascoli in?
Brescia (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-D-L-D-D. Ascoli (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-L-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Brescia's attacking strength (1.07x league average) is weighed against Ascoli's defensive record (0.83x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.12. The same calculation in reverse, Ascoli's attack versus Brescia's defence, projects 1.03 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 49/49 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.4%), 1-0 (11.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Brescia Win
37%
2.73
31%
3.21
32%
3.10
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
13.0%
Home win
0 – 1
12.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.12
Brescia xG
Total xG
2.15
1.03
Ascoli xG
2.73
37%
Home win
3.21
31%
Draw
3.10
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.27
56%
BTTS No
1.79
Clean Sheet
36%
2.81
33%
3.06
Win to Nil
13%
7.68
11%
9.47
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.6 | 12.0 | 6.2 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.0 | 13.4 | 6.9 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.3 | 7.5 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 2.8 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Brescia vs Ascoli?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Brescia and Ascoli expected to score?
The model projects 1.12 expected goals for Brescia and 1.03 for Ascoli, a combined total of 2.15.
How confident is the prediction model for Brescia vs Ascoli?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Brescia's recent record stands at 21W 18D 11L from 50 games, a 1.62 PPG return, with L-D-L-D-D in the last five. The sample for Brescia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Ascoli, meanwhile, have gone 24W 11D 15L across 50 games — 1.66 PPG, with D-L-W-W-W in their last five. The sample for Ascoli is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Brescia on 1.62 PPG, Ascoli on 1.66. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Brescia have managed 11W 9D 4L from 24 games — 1.75 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Ascoli's away record stands at 14W 3D 7L across 24 trips, a 1.88 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Brescia are averaging 1.36 goals scored and 1.12 conceded per game recently; Ascoli are on 1.34 scored and 1.10 conceded.
Last 50 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Brescia
Blended
Ascoli
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Brescia and Ascoli in coming into this match?
Brescia have gone 21W 18D 11L in their last 50 games (1.62 PPG), while Ascoli have gone 24W 11D 15L in their last 50 (1.66 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Brescia at home or Ascoli away?
Ascoli's away record (1.88 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Brescia at home: 1.75 PPG; Ascoli away: 1.88 PPG.
Have Brescia or Ascoli been keeping clean sheets recently?
Brescia have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Ascoli in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Brescia and Ascoli runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 27 February 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Brescia's record when hosting Ascoli specifically: 1W 2D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Brescia
3
Draws
1
Ascoli
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Brescia and Ascoli?
From 6 meetings on record, Brescia have won 2, Ascoli have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Brescia and Ascoli last play each other?
They last met on 27 February 2024, when Ascoli 1-1 Brescia.
Who has won more matches between Brescia and Ascoli?
Brescia have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Brescia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Ascoli are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Brescia 58%, Ascoli 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Brescia) and 42% (Ascoli).
On the defensive side: Brescia keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Brescia home games / Ascoli away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Brescia play Ascoli?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 58% of Brescia's recent matches and 50% of Ascoli's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Brescia vs Ascoli usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Brescia's recent games and 42% of Ascoli's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Brescia and Ascoli tend to score early?
Brescia have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Ascoli in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Brescia and Ascoli share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadio Mario Rigamonti, Regular Season - 12, as Brescia and Ascoli drew 1-1 in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Brescia 1.12 xG and Ascoli 1.03 xG, a combined 2.15. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Brescia attack 1.07 / defence 0.85 against Ascoli attack 1.09 / defence 0.83, drawn from 49/49 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Brescia 37% | Draw 31% | Ascoli 32%, with Brescia to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 39% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Brescia 38%, Ascoli 40%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Brescia's trading profile (50 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Ascoli's trading profile (50 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Brescia 1.62 PPG, Ascoli 1.66 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.