Pordenone 2-2 Cremonese – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Cremonese at 50% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Pordenone vs Cremonese encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Pordenone and Cremonese meet at Stadio Guido Teghil in Serie B, Regular Season - 11. This fixture gets under way on Monday 1 November 2021 at 17:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Pordenone have collected 0.20 PPG across 10 Serie B outings this season: 0W 2D 8L. Last five: L L L D L. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 2.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.40 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. This season is still relatively young for Pordenone, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Pordenone at Stadio Guido Teghil this season: 0W 1D 4L from 5 home games — 0.20 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 2.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Cremonese's overall Serie B record this term: 5W 2D 3L from 10 games (1.70 PPG). Last five: W W D L D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Cremonese, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Cremonese away from home this season: 2W 0D 2L from 4 away games — 1.50 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.75 goals scored and 0.75 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 25% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
On a straight form reading, Cremonese are the stronger side — 1.50 PPG clear of the hosts (1.70 vs 0.20). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
Trading
Pordenone half-time and goal-timing data (10 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 50%; they fail to score in 50% of games.
Cremonese half-time and goal-timing data (10 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time; they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Pordenone 50% versus Cremonese 30%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Pordenone 50% | Cremonese 30%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Pordenone 0.82 xG and Cremonese 1.42 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Pordenone attack 0.802 / defence 1.739 | Cremonese attack 0.712 / defence 1.028. League average goals — home 0.990 / away 1.148. Data: 10 Pordenone games / 10 Cremonese games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Pordenone 21% | Draw 29% | Cremonese 50%. Fair-value odds: Pordenone 4.76 | Draw 3.45 | Cremonese 2.00. Cremonese hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.24. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.24 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Cremonese at 50% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Cremonese if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.24 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 39% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 43% on No. Form rates corroborate: Pordenone 60% | Cremonese 25% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Pordenone vs Cremonese | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Stadio Guido Teghil • Kick-off: Monday 1 Nov 2021, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Pordenone 21% | Draw 29% | Cremonese 50% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 43% | xG Pordenone 0.82 / Cremonese 1.42 • Poisson strength factors: Pordenone attack 0.802 / def 1.739 | Cremonese attack 0.712 / def 1.028 | league avg home 0.990 / away 1.148 • Poisson stance: Cremonese (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.82
Pordenone xG
Expected Goals
1.42
Cremonese xG
43%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Pordenone vs Cremonese kick off?
Pordenone vs Cremonese kicked off at 17:00 on Monday 1 November 2021 at Stadio Guido Teghil.
What was the final score in Pordenone vs Cremonese?
Pordenone 2 - 2 Cremonese.
Where is Pordenone vs Cremonese being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Guido Teghil.
What competition is Pordenone vs Cremonese part of?
Pordenone vs Cremonese is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Pordenone vs Cremonese?
Our statistical model gives Pordenone a 21% chance of winning, Cremonese a 50% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Cremonese the favourite.
Will both teams score in Pordenone vs Cremonese?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Pordenone and Cremonese will score (BTTS).
Will Pordenone vs Cremonese have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between Pordenone and Cremonese?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Pordenone and Cremonese in?
Pordenone (all comps): 0W-2D-8L in 10 | 0.20 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 2.40 | L5 L-L-L-D-L. Cremonese (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Pordenone's attack rating (0.80) and Cremonese's defence rating (1.03), the model arrives at 0.82 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Cremonese's attack (0.71x) against Pordenone's defence (1.74x) — and the away total comes out at 1.42.
These ratings are built from 10/10 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.0%. Close behind: 0-1 (13.6%), 0-0 (12.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Cremonese Win
21%
4.88
29%
3.42
50%
1.99
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
15.2%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
0 – 2
10.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.82
Pordenone xG
Total xG
2.24
1.42
Cremonese xG
4.88
21%
Home win
3.42
29%
Draw
1.99
50%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.31
57%
BTTS No
1.77
Clean Sheet
24%
4.14
44%
2.26
Win to Nil
5%
20.19
22%
4.50
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.7 | 15.2 | 10.8 | 5.1 | 1.8 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 8.7 | 12.4 | 8.8 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 3.6 | 5.1 | 3.6 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.0 | 1.4 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Pordenone vs Cremonese?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Pordenone and Cremonese expected to score?
The model projects 0.82 expected goals for Pordenone and 1.42 for Cremonese, a combined total of 2.24.
How confident is the prediction model for Pordenone vs Cremonese?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 10 outings, Pordenone have picked up 0.20 PPG on a 0W 2D 8L record — L-L-L-D-L across the most recent five. The sample for Pordenone is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Cremonese's form line: 5W 2D 3L from 10 games, 1.70 PPG, last five W-W-D-L-D. The sample for Cremonese is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Cremonese are the form team by 1.50 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Pordenone.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Pordenone have posted 0.25 PPG from 4 outings (0W 1D 3L).
On the road, Cremonese have gone 2W 0D 2L from 4 away games — 1.50 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Cremonese come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Pordenone are averaging 0.60 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game recently; Cremonese are on 1.20 scored and 0.80 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Cremonese in 30%.
Defensively: Cremonese in 40% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 10 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Pordenone
Blended
Cremonese
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Pordenone and Cremonese in coming into this match?
Pordenone have gone 0W 2D 8L in their last 10 games (0.20 PPG), while Cremonese have gone 5W 2D 3L in their last 10 (1.70 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Pordenone at home or Cremonese away?
Cremonese's away record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Pordenone at home: 0.25 PPG; Cremonese away: 1.50 PPG.
Have Pordenone or Cremonese been keeping clean sheets recently?
Pordenone have kept a clean sheet in 0% of their recent games, Cremonese in 40%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since November 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 16 March 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Pordenone
1
Draws
1
Cremonese
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Pordenone and Cremonese?
From 2 meetings on record, Pordenone have won 0, Cremonese have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Pordenone and Cremonese last play each other?
They last met on 16 March 2022, when Cremonese 2-1 Pordenone.
Who has won more matches between Pordenone and Cremonese?
Cremonese have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Pordenone are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Cremonese see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Pordenone 75%, Cremonese 25% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 75% (Pordenone) and 25% (Cremonese).
On the defensive side: Cremonese in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Pordenone home games / Cremonese away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Pordenone play Cremonese?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 75% of Pordenone's recent matches and 25% of Cremonese's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Pordenone vs Cremonese usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 75% of Pordenone's recent games and 25% of Cremonese's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Pordenone and Cremonese tend to score early?
Pordenone have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Cremonese in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Pordenone and Cremonese share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Pordenone and Cremonese finished level at 2-2 at Stadio Guido Teghil, Regular Season - 11, in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Pordenone 0.82 xG and Cremonese 1.42 xG, a combined 2.24. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Pordenone beat their projection by 1.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Pordenone attack 0.80 / defence 1.74 against Cremonese attack 0.71 / defence 1.03, drawn from 10/10 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Pordenone 21% | Draw 29% | Cremonese 50%, with Cremonese to win its most likely call at 50%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. Over 3.5 was 19% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Pordenone 50%, Cremonese 30%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 40%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Pordenone's trading profile (10 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Cremonese's trading profile (10 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 30% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Cremonese arrived the stronger side — 1.70 PPG against 0.20. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Pordenone (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 2 against a 3.00 average — tighter than their form line. Cremonese (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.75 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 0.75 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.