Reggiana 0-4 Sudtirol – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Reggiana at 35%, yet in-form Sudtirol provide a compelling counter-argument — this Reggiana vs Sudtirol fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Sudtirol make the trip to MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore to face Reggiana in Serie B (matchday 28). The match kicks off on Tuesday 3 March 2026 at 19:00 UK time.
Form
Reggiana (all games): 2W 3D 5L across their last 10 — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L W D D W. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Reggiana at home: 3W 3D 4L from their last 10 home games — 1.20 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Sudtirol have collected 1.80 PPG across their last 10 games: 5W 3D 2L. Last five: D D W L D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Sudtirol away from home: 2W 5D 3L from their last 10 away games — 1.10 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Sudtirol are 0.90 PPG clear of Reggiana over their recent games (1.80 vs 0.90). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
Head-to-Head
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 5 H2H matches in our data, Sudtirol edge it 3 wins to 1, with 1 draw. Neither side has a commanding advantage.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 5 H2H matches in our data averaged 3.4 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 27 Sep 2025, ended Reggiana 1–3 Sudtirol — a Sudtirol win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.4 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Reggiana half-time and goal-timing data (last 65 games, 32 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 78% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; of the 15 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Sudtirol half-time and goal-timing data (last 65 games, 32 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 69% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 59% of the time; of the 18 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 39%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Reggiana 58% versus Sudtirol 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Reggiana 48% | Sudtirol 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Reggiana 1.01 xG and Sudtirol 0.96 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Reggiana attack 0.871 / defence 1.068 | Sudtirol attack 0.808 / defence 0.930. League average goals — home 1.252 / away 1.110. Data: built from Reggiana's last 65 games and Sudtirol's last 65.
Result probabilities: Reggiana 35% | Draw 34% | Sudtirol 32%. Fair-value odds: Reggiana 2.88 | Draw 2.98 | Sudtirol 3.15. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 32% | BTTS Yes probability 41% | Total xG 1.97. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 68% probability — total xG of 1.97 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No at 59% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Reggiana at 35% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Sudtirol (1.80 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — the model adjusts for opposition strength, which raw form results do not. Draw probability of 34% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Reggiana if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 1.97 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 68% probability — mixed conviction, supported by recent form (Reggiana's last 10 home games and Sudtirol's last 10 away games) averaging 1.9 goals per game — though the H2H data averaging 3.4 goals per game across 5 H2H matches points the other way.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 59% on No. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Reggiana 60% (last 10 home games) | Sudtirol 40% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Reggiana vs Sudtirol | Competition: Serie B, matchday 28 | Venue: MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore • Kick-off: Tuesday 3 March 2026 at 19:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Reggiana 35% | Draw 34% | Sudtirol 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 32% (Under 68%) | BTTS Yes 41% (No 59%) | xG Reggiana 1.01 / Sudtirol 0.96 • Poisson strength factors: Reggiana attack 0.871 / def 1.068 | Sudtirol attack 0.808 / def 0.930 | league avg home 1.252 / away 1.110 • Poisson stance: Reggiana (35%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.01
Reggiana xG
Expected Goals
0.96
Sudtirol xG
41%
BTTS
60%
Over 1.5
32%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Reggiana vs Sudtirol FAQs
What time does Reggiana vs Sudtirol kick off?
Reggiana vs Sudtirol kicked off at 19:00 UK time on Tuesday 3 March 2026 at MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore.
What was the final score in Reggiana vs Sudtirol?
Reggiana 0 - 4 Sudtirol.
Where is Reggiana vs Sudtirol being played?
The match is being played at MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore.
What competition is Reggiana vs Sudtirol part of?
Reggiana vs Sudtirol is a Serie B fixture (matchday 28) (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Reggiana vs Sudtirol?
Our statistical model gives Reggiana a 35% chance of winning, Sudtirol a 32% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making Reggiana the favourite.
Will both teams score in Reggiana vs Sudtirol?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both Reggiana and Sudtirol will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (59%).
Will Reggiana vs Sudtirol have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 32%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (68%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Reggiana's attack at 0.87x the league average against Sudtirol's defence at 0.93x — combine the two and it projects 1.01 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Sudtirol's attack (0.81x) against Reggiana's defence (1.07x) — and the away total comes out at 0.96.
These ratings are built from Reggiana's last 65 games and Sudtirol's last 65 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 15.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (15.3%), 1-0 (12.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Reggiana Win
35%
2.88
34%
2.98
32%
3.15
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.1%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.9%
Draw
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.01
Reggiana xG
Total xG
1.97
0.96
Sudtirol xG
2.88
35%
Home win
2.98
34%
Draw
3.15
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
59%
Over 1.5
1.69
41%
Under 1.5
2.44
32%
Over 2.5
3.12
68%
Under 2.5
1.47
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.47
59%
BTTS No
1.68
Clean Sheet
38%
2.61
36%
2.76
Win to Nil
13%
7.52
12%
8.67
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.9 | 13.3 | 6.4 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.1 | 13.5 | 6.5 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.1 | 6.9 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 2.4 | 2.3 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Reggiana vs Sudtirol Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Reggiana vs Sudtirol?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.7%.
How many goals are Reggiana and Sudtirol expected to score?
The model projects 1.01 expected goals for Reggiana and 0.96 for Sudtirol, a combined total of 1.97.
How confident is the prediction model for Reggiana vs Sudtirol?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 65 outings, Reggiana have picked up 1.12 PPG on a 18W 19D 28L record — L-W-D-D-W across the most recent five.
Sudtirol's form line: 19W 23D 23L from 65 games, 1.23 PPG, last five D-D-W-L-D.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.12 PPG for Reggiana against 1.23 for Sudtirol. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Reggiana have posted 1.28 PPG from their last 32 home games (10W 11D 11L).
On the road, Sudtirol have gone 8W 12D 12L from their last 32 away games — 1.12 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Reggiana are averaging 1.09 goals scored and 1.35 conceded per game recently; Sudtirol are on 1.18 scored and 1.31 conceded.
Last 65 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Reggiana
Blended
Sudtirol
Blended
Reggiana (Home) vs Sudtirol (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Reggiana
Blended
Sudtirol
Blended
❓ Reggiana vs Sudtirol Form FAQs
What form are Reggiana and Sudtirol in coming into this match?
Reggiana have gone 18W 19D 28L in their last 65 games (1.12 PPG), while Sudtirol have gone 19W 23D 23L in their last 65 (1.23 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Reggiana at home or Sudtirol away?
Reggiana's home record (1.28 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Reggiana at home: 1.28 PPG; Sudtirol away: 1.12 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 6 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to December 2023 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Serie B. The most recent was on 3 March 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear recent trend here: Sudtirol have taken the most recent 4 H2H results in our data.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Sudtirol won Reggiana 0-4 Sudtirol on 3 Mar 2026, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Reggiana have gone 0W 1D 2L from the 3 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Sudtirol — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Reggiana
1
Draws
4
Sudtirol
Recent Meetings
❓ Reggiana vs Sudtirol H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Reggiana and Sudtirol?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Reggiana have won 1, Sudtirol have won 4, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Reggiana and Sudtirol last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 3 March 2026: Reggiana 0-4 Sudtirol.
Who has won more matches between Reggiana and Sudtirol?
Sudtirol have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Reggiana are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Sudtirol are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 56% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 31% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Reggiana 59%, Sudtirol 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Reggiana) and 47% (Sudtirol).
On the defensive side: Reggiana have failed to score in 28% of games; Sudtirol in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Reggiana home games / Sudtirol away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Reggiana vs Sudtirol Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Reggiana and Sudtirol matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 59% of Reggiana's recent matches and 50% of Sudtirol's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Reggiana and Sudtirol matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Reggiana's recent games and 47% of Sudtirol's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Reggiana and Sudtirol matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 78% of Reggiana's recent matches and 69% of Sudtirol's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Sudtirol run riot with a 0-4 hammering of Reggiana.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sudtirol beat Reggiana 0-4 at MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore, Regular Season - 28, in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Reggiana 1.01 xG and Sudtirol 0.96 xG, a combined 1.97. The scoreboard read 0-4 for 4 actual goals. Reggiana fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Sudtirol outscored their 0.96 projection by 3.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Reggiana attack 0.87 / defence 1.07 against Sudtirol attack 0.81 / defence 0.93, drawn from 65/65 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Reggiana 35% | Draw 34% | Sudtirol 32%, with Reggiana to win its most likely call at 35%. The actual Sudtirol win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 32%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 60% and landed. Over 3.5 was 14% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Reggiana 48%, Sudtirol 49%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Reggiana's trading profile (65 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Sudtirol's trading profile (65 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Reggiana 1.12 PPG, Sudtirol 1.23 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Sudtirol win broke the near-deadlock. Reggiana (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.19 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.22 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Sudtirol (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.12 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.38 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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