Reggiana 1-0 Sampdoria – Result & Analysis

Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 34% as Reggiana take on Sampdoria.

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Full Analysis

MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore plays host to Reggiana versus Sampdoria in Serie B (matchday 38). Kick-off: Friday 8 May 2026 at 20:30 UK time.

Form

Reggiana (all games): 1W 2D 7L across their last 10 — 0.50 PPG. Last five: L W L D L. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).

In front of their own supporters, Reggiana have posted 2W 4D 4L from their last 10 home games — 1.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.50 — Reggiana are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.

Sampdoria have collected 1.50 PPG across their last 10 games: 4W 3D 3L. Last five: W W L D W. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.

Sampdoria's form when playing away from home: 2W 4D 4L across their last 10 road games (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.

On a straight form reading, Sampdoria are the stronger side — 1.00 PPG clear of the hosts (1.50 vs 0.50). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.

In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (from Reggiana's last 10 home games and Sampdoria's last 10 away games) — Reggiana have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Sampdoria in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.

H2H History

The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 5 H2H matches in our data, Sampdoria edge it 3 wins to 1, with 1 draw. Neither side has a commanding advantage.

The 5 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 27 Dec 2025, ended Reggiana 1–2 Sampdoria — a Sampdoria win.

The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.

Trading Data

Reggiana goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 75 games, 36 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 81% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 63% of the time; of the 16 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 31%; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.

Sampdoria goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 75 games, 36 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; of the 17 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 59%; of the 19 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 32%; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Reggiana 56% versus Sampdoria 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Reggiana 48% | Sampdoria 39%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Reggiana surrender their half-time lead 31% of the time, while Sampdoria have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 32% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Reggiana 1.03 xG and Sampdoria 0.97 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Reggiana attack 0.776 / defence 1.162 | Sampdoria attack 0.788 / defence 0.962. League average goals — home 1.380 / away 1.062. Reggiana's attack rating of 0.776 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.03. Sampdoria's attack rating of 0.788 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.97. Data: built from Reggiana's last 75 games and Sampdoria's last 75.

Result probabilities: Reggiana 34% | Draw 34% | Sampdoria 31%. Fair-value odds: Reggiana 2.91 | Draw 2.90 | Sampdoria 3.20. The draw (34%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 32% | BTTS Yes probability 42% | Total xG 2.00. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 68% probability — total xG of 2.00 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No at 58% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.

Final Verdict

The Poisson model's most likely outcome is the draw at 34% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 34% and away win at 31% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.

Poisson projects 2.00 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 68% probability — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 58% on No. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: Reggiana 60% (last 10 home games) | Sampdoria 60% (last 10 away games), a notable divergence.

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