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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 34% as Sudtirol take on Juve Stabia.

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Fixture Analysis

It is a Serie B clash, Regular Season - 38 as Sudtirol welcome Juve Stabia to Stadio Marco Druso. Kick-off is set for Friday 8 May 2026 at 19:30 UTC.

Form Analysis

Looking at all fixtures this season, Sudtirol stand at 1W 3D 6L from 10 Serie B matches — 0.60 PPG. Last five: D D L L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.

In front of their own supporters this season, Sudtirol have posted 3W 4D 3L at Stadio Marco Druso — 1.30 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.60 — Sudtirol are significantly better at Stadio Marco Druso than their overall form suggests.

Juve Stabia — All Games: 2W 5D 3L from 10 Serie B fixtures this season — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L W D D L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

Juve Stabia's form when playing away from home: 2W 5D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Juve Stabia are 0.50 PPG ahead (1.10 vs 0.60), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.

H2H

The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Sudtirol, 2 for Juve Stabia and 0 shared spoils from 3 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.

The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 27 Dec 2025, ended 0–1 with Juve Stabia winning.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

Trading Patterns

Sudtirol in-play and half-time data (75 games, 36 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.

Juve Stabia in-play and half-time data (75 games, 36 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sudtirol 56% versus Juve Stabia 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sudtirol 49% | Juve Stabia 47%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Sudtirol 1.03 xG and Juve Stabia 1.05 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sudtirol attack 0.711 / defence 1.087 | Juve Stabia attack 0.909 / defence 1.047. League average goals — home 1.380 / away 1.062. Sudtirol's attack strength of 0.711 is below the league average — the 1.03 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 75 Sudtirol games / 75 Juve Stabia games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Sudtirol 33% | Draw 34% | Juve Stabia 34%. Fair-value odds: Sudtirol 3.03 | Draw 2.94 | Juve Stabia 2.94. The draw (34%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.08. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.08 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 34% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 33% and away win at 34% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.

The Poisson model projects 2.08 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 34% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 44% on No. This conflicts with form data: Sudtirol 50% | Juve Stabia 70% from recent games — a notable divergence.

The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.

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