Reggiana 2-2 Cremonese – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Cremonese at 39% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Reggiana vs Cremonese encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore plays host to Reggiana versus Cremonese in Serie B (matchday 5). Kick-off: Saturday 16 September 2023 at 16:15 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Reggiana have collected 0.50 PPG across their last 4 games: 0W 2D 2L. Last five: L D L D. They are averaging 0.75 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 4 outings (25%).
Cremonese (all games): 3W 3D 4L across their last 10 — 1.20 points per game. Last five: W D L W D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Cremonese's away record over their last 10 away games: 2W 3D 5L (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
On a straight form reading, Cremonese are the stronger side — 0.70 PPG clear of the hosts (1.20 vs 0.50). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
Trading Data
Reggiana goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 4 games): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 75% of their matches; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games; Over 3.5 in 50%; they fail to score in 50% of games.
Cremonese goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 4 games): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 50% of their matches; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 0% of games; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time; they fail to score in 50% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Reggiana 50% versus Cremonese 25%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Reggiana 50% | Cremonese 0%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Reggiana 1.04 xG and Cremonese 1.24 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Reggiana attack 0.893 / defence 1.382 | Cremonese attack 0.857 / defence 0.994. League average goals — home 1.170 / away 1.049. Reggiana's defence rating of 1.382 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Cremonese's projected output up. Data: built from Reggiana's last 4 games and Cremonese's last 4.
Result probabilities: Reggiana 29% | Draw 33% | Cremonese 39%. Fair-value odds: Reggiana 3.50 | Draw 3.05 | Cremonese 2.59. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS Yes probability 48% | Total xG 2.28. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.28 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 52% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Cremonese as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 33% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Cremonese if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.28 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 60% — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Reggiana 50% (last 4 games) | Cremonese 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Reggiana vs Cremonese | Competition: Serie B, matchday 5 | Venue: MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore • Kick-off: Saturday 16 September 2023 at 16:15 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Reggiana 29% | Draw 33% | Cremonese 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% (Under 60%) | BTTS Yes 48% (No 52%) | xG Reggiana 1.04 / Cremonese 1.24 • Poisson strength factors: Reggiana attack 0.893 / def 1.382 | Cremonese attack 0.857 / def 0.994 | league avg home 1.170 / away 1.049 • Poisson stance: Cremonese (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.04
Reggiana xG
Expected Goals
1.24
Cremonese xG
48%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Reggiana vs Cremonese FAQs
What time does Reggiana vs Cremonese kick off?
Reggiana vs Cremonese kicked off at 16:15 UK time on Saturday 16 September 2023 at MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore.
What was the final score in Reggiana vs Cremonese?
Reggiana 2 - 2 Cremonese.
Where is Reggiana vs Cremonese being played?
The match is being played at MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore.
What competition is Reggiana vs Cremonese part of?
Reggiana vs Cremonese is a Serie B fixture (matchday 5) (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Reggiana vs Cremonese?
Our statistical model gives Reggiana a 29% chance of winning, Cremonese a 39% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Cremonese the favourite.
Will both teams score in Reggiana vs Cremonese?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Reggiana and Cremonese will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (52%).
Will Reggiana vs Cremonese have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (60%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Reggiana's attack at 0.89x the league average against Cremonese's defence at 0.99x — combine the two and it projects 1.04 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Cremonese's attack (0.86x) against Reggiana's defence (1.38x) — and the away total comes out at 1.24.
These ratings are built from Reggiana's last 4 games and Cremonese's last 4 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (11.9%), 0-1 (11.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Cremonese Win
29%
3.50
33%
3.05
39%
2.59
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.7%
Away win
1 – 0
10.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.04
Reggiana xG
Total xG
2.28
1.24
Cremonese xG
3.50
29%
Home win
3.05
33%
Draw
2.59
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.07
52%
BTTS No
1.93
Clean Sheet
29%
3.46
35%
2.83
Win to Nil
8%
12.12
14%
7.31
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.2 | 12.7 | 7.9 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.6 | 13.2 | 8.2 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.5 | 6.9 | 4.3 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 2.4 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Reggiana vs Cremonese Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Reggiana vs Cremonese?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Reggiana and Cremonese expected to score?
The model projects 1.04 expected goals for Reggiana and 1.24 for Cremonese, a combined total of 2.28.
How confident is the prediction model for Reggiana vs Cremonese?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Reggiana come into this having played 4 games, going 0W 2D 2L for 0.50 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-L-D.
On the other side, Cremonese sit at 1.25 PPG from 4 outings (1W 2D 1L), a run that reads D-L-W-D across their last five.
Cremonese carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.75 PPG clear of Reggiana — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Attack vs Defence
Reggiana are averaging 0.75 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; Cremonese are on 0.50 scored and 0.50 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Cremonese in 25%.
Defensively: Cremonese in 50% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 4 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Reggiana
Early Season
Cremonese
Early Season
Reggiana (Home) vs Cremonese (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Reggiana
Early Season
Cremonese
Early Season
❓ Reggiana vs Cremonese Form FAQs
What form are Reggiana and Cremonese in coming into this match?
Reggiana have gone 0W 2D 2L in their last 4 games (0.50 PPG), while Cremonese have gone 1W 2D 1L in their last 4 (1.25 PPG).
Have Reggiana or Cremonese been keeping clean sheets recently?
Reggiana have kept a clean sheet in 25% of their recent games, Cremonese in 50%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 4 H2H matches between Reggiana and Cremonese, the earliest from September 2023. All of them came in Serie B. The most recent in our data was on 4 April 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Reggiana have gone 0W 1D 1L from the 2 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Cremonese — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Reggiana
2
Draws
1
Cremonese
Recent Meetings
❓ Reggiana vs Cremonese H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Reggiana and Cremonese?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Reggiana have won 1, Cremonese have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Reggiana and Cremonese last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 4 April 2025: Reggiana 1-2 Cremonese.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Reggiana are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Cremonese see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 100% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Reggiana 50%, Cremonese 25% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 50% for Reggiana and 0% for Cremonese.
On the defensive side: Cremonese in 50%; Reggiana have failed to score in 50% of games; Cremonese in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Reggiana home games / Cremonese away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Reggiana vs Cremonese Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Reggiana and Cremonese matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Reggiana's recent matches and 25% of Cremonese's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Reggiana and Cremonese matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Reggiana's recent games and 0% of Cremonese's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Reggiana and Cremonese matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 75% of Reggiana's recent matches and 50% of Cremonese's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Reggiana and Cremonese share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Reggiana and Cremonese finished level at 2-2 at MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore, Regular Season - 5, in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Reggiana 1.04 xG and Cremonese 1.24 xG, a combined 2.28. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Reggiana beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Reggiana attack 0.89 / defence 1.38 against Cremonese attack 0.86 / defence 0.99, drawn from 4/4 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Reggiana 29% | Draw 33% | Cremonese 39%, with Cremonese to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. Over 3.5 was 20% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 25% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Reggiana 50%, Cremonese 0%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 38%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Reggiana's trading profile (4 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Cremonese's trading profile (4 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 25% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Cremonese arrived the stronger side — 1.25 PPG against 0.50. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Reggiana scored 2 against a 0.75 average — above their attacking norm. Cremonese scored 2 against a 0.50 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 0.50 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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