Reggiana 2-2 Cremonese – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Cremonese at 39% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Reggiana vs Cremonese encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore plays host to Reggiana versus Cremonese in Serie B, Regular Season - 5. Kick-off: Saturday 16 September 2023 at 15:15 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Reggiana have collected 0.50 PPG across 4 Serie B outings this season: 0W 2D 2L. Last five: L D L D. They are averaging 0.75 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 4 outings provides some defensive foundation. Reggiana have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Cremonese (all games): 3W 3D 4L across 10 Serie B outings this term — 1.20 points per game. Last five: W D L W D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Cremonese have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Cremonese's away record: 2W 3D 5L from 10 road trips in Serie B this season (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
On a straight form reading, Cremonese are the stronger side — 0.70 PPG clear of the hosts (1.20 vs 0.50). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
Trading Data
Reggiana goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (4 games): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 25% of cases; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games; Over 3.5 in 50%; they fail to score in 50% of games.
Cremonese goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (4 games): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 25% of the time; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 0% of games; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time; they fail to score in 50% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Reggiana 50% versus Cremonese 25%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Reggiana 50% | Cremonese 0%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Reggiana 1.04 xG and Cremonese 1.24 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Reggiana attack 0.893 / defence 1.382 | Cremonese attack 0.857 / defence 0.994. League average goals — home 1.170 / away 1.049. Data: 4 Reggiana games / 4 Cremonese games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Reggiana 29% | Draw 33% | Cremonese 39%. Fair-value odds: Reggiana 3.45 | Draw 3.03 | Cremonese 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.28. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.28 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Cremonese as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 33% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Cremonese if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.28 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 40% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 48% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Reggiana 50% | Cremonese 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Reggiana vs Cremonese | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore • Kick-off: Saturday 16 Sep 2023, 15:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Reggiana 29% | Draw 33% | Cremonese 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 48% | xG Reggiana 1.04 / Cremonese 1.24 • Poisson strength factors: Reggiana attack 0.893 / def 1.382 | Cremonese attack 0.857 / def 0.994 | league avg home 1.170 / away 1.049 • Poisson stance: Cremonese (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.04
Reggiana xG
Expected Goals
1.24
Cremonese xG
48%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Reggiana vs Cremonese kick off?
Reggiana vs Cremonese kicked off at 15:15 on Saturday 16 September 2023 at MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore.
What was the final score in Reggiana vs Cremonese?
Reggiana 2 - 2 Cremonese.
Where is Reggiana vs Cremonese being played?
The match is being played at MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore.
What competition is Reggiana vs Cremonese part of?
Reggiana vs Cremonese is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Reggiana vs Cremonese?
Our statistical model gives Reggiana a 29% chance of winning, Cremonese a 39% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Cremonese the favourite.
Will both teams score in Reggiana vs Cremonese?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Reggiana and Cremonese will score (BTTS).
Will Reggiana vs Cremonese have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Reggiana and Cremonese?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Reggiana and Cremonese in?
Reggiana (all comps): 0W-2D-2L in 4 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.75 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-D-L-D. Cremonese (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-D-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Reggiana's attack at 0.89x the league average against Cremonese's defence at 0.99x — combine the two and it projects 1.04 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Cremonese's attack (0.86x) against Reggiana's defence (1.38x) — and the away total comes out at 1.24.
These ratings are built from 4/4 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (11.9%), 0-1 (11.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Cremonese Win
29%
3.50
33%
3.05
39%
2.59
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.7%
Away win
1 – 0
10.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.04
Reggiana xG
Total xG
2.28
1.24
Cremonese xG
3.50
29%
Home win
3.05
33%
Draw
2.59
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.07
52%
BTTS No
1.93
Clean Sheet
29%
3.46
35%
2.83
Win to Nil
8%
12.12
14%
7.31
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.2 | 12.7 | 7.9 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.6 | 13.2 | 8.2 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.5 | 6.9 | 4.3 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 2.4 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Reggiana vs Cremonese?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Reggiana and Cremonese expected to score?
The model projects 1.04 expected goals for Reggiana and 1.24 for Cremonese, a combined total of 2.28.
How confident is the prediction model for Reggiana vs Cremonese?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Reggiana come into this having played 4 games, going 0W 2D 2L for 0.50 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-L-D. It's still early in the season for Reggiana, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Cremonese sit at 1.25 PPG from 4 outings (1W 2D 1L), a run that reads D-L-W-D across their last five. It's still early in the season for Cremonese, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Cremonese carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.75 PPG clear of Reggiana — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Attack vs Defence
Reggiana are averaging 0.75 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; Cremonese are on 0.50 scored and 0.50 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Cremonese in 25%.
Defensively: Cremonese in 50% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 4 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Reggiana
Early Season
Cremonese
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Reggiana and Cremonese in coming into this match?
Reggiana have gone 0W 2D 2L in their last 4 games (0.50 PPG), while Cremonese have gone 1W 2D 1L in their last 4 (1.25 PPG).
Have Reggiana or Cremonese been keeping clean sheets recently?
Reggiana have kept a clean sheet in 25% of their recent games, Cremonese in 50%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 4 April 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Reggiana have gone 0W 1D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Cremonese — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Reggiana
2
Draws
1
Cremonese
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Reggiana and Cremonese?
From 4 meetings on record, Reggiana have won 1, Cremonese have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Reggiana and Cremonese last play each other?
They last met on 4 April 2025, when Reggiana 1-2 Cremonese.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Reggiana are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Cremonese see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Reggiana 50%, Cremonese 25% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 50% for Reggiana and 0% for Cremonese.
On the defensive side: Cremonese in 50%; Reggiana have failed to score in 50% of games; Cremonese in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Reggiana home games / Cremonese away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Reggiana play Cremonese?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Reggiana's recent matches and 25% of Cremonese's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Reggiana vs Cremonese usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Reggiana's recent games and 0% of Cremonese's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Reggiana and Cremonese tend to score early?
Reggiana have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Cremonese in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Reggiana and Cremonese share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Reggiana and Cremonese finished level at 2-2 at MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore, Regular Season - 5, in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Reggiana 1.04 xG and Cremonese 1.24 xG, a combined 2.28. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Reggiana beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Reggiana attack 0.89 / defence 1.38 against Cremonese attack 0.86 / defence 0.99, drawn from 4/4 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Reggiana 29% | Draw 33% | Cremonese 39%, with Cremonese to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. Over 3.5 was 20% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 25% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Reggiana 50%, Cremonese 0%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 38%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Reggiana's trading profile (4 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Cremonese's trading profile (4 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 25% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Cremonese arrived the stronger side — 1.25 PPG against 0.50. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Reggiana scored 2 against a 0.75 average — above their attacking norm. Cremonese scored 2 against a 0.50 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 0.50 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.