Cosenza 2-2 Sudtirol – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 34% as Cosenza take on Sudtirol.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Cosenza host Sudtirol at Stadio San Vito-Luigi Marulla in Serie B, Regular Season - 5. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 16 September 2023 at 13:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Cosenza — All Games: 2W 4D 4L from 10 Serie B outings this season, averaging 1.00 points per game. Last five: D W D L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Cosenza have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Stadio San Vito-Luigi Marulla, Cosenza have gone 5W 3D 2L this season (10 games, 1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadio San Vito-Luigi Marulla. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Cosenza are significantly better at Stadio San Vito-Luigi Marulla than their overall form suggests.
Across all Serie B games this season, Sudtirol have recorded 5W 3D 2L from 10 outings — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W L D W W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Sudtirol have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Sudtirol away from home this season: 3W 4D 3L from 10 away games — 1.30 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 6 away clean sheets from 10 games (60%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.30 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form points away from home here. Sudtirol's 1.80 PPG return is 0.80 points per game ahead of Cosenza's 1.00 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, Cosenza have won 0, Sudtirol 0, with 2 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The last 2 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.0 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 18 Feb 2023, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Cosenza in-play and half-time data (44 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
Sudtirol in-play and half-time data (44 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 24% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 19% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cosenza 50% versus Sudtirol 43%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Cosenza 36% | Sudtirol 27%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cosenza 1.03 xG and Sudtirol 1.05 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cosenza attack 1.072 / defence 0.971 | Sudtirol attack 1.043 / defence 0.801. League average goals — home 1.201 / away 1.041. Data: 42 Cosenza games / 41 Sudtirol games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cosenza 32% | Draw 34% | Sudtirol 34%. Fair-value odds: Cosenza 3.12 | Draw 2.94 | Sudtirol 2.94. The draw (34%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.09. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.09 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 34% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 32% and away win at 34% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
The Poisson model projects 2.09 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 35% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 1.4 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 44% on No. Form rates corroborate: Cosenza 40% | Sudtirol 20% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cosenza vs Sudtirol | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Stadio San Vito-Luigi Marulla • Kick-off: Saturday 16 Sep 2023, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cosenza 32% | Draw 34% | Sudtirol 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% | BTTS 44% | xG Cosenza 1.03 / Sudtirol 1.05 • Poisson strength factors: Cosenza attack 1.072 / def 0.971 | Sudtirol attack 1.043 / def 0.801 | league avg home 1.201 / away 1.041 • Poisson stance: Draw (34%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.03
Cosenza xG
Expected Goals
1.05
Sudtirol xG
44%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cosenza vs Sudtirol kick off?
Cosenza vs Sudtirol kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 16 September 2023 at Stadio San Vito-Luigi Marulla.
What was the final score in Cosenza vs Sudtirol?
Cosenza 2 - 2 Sudtirol.
Where is Cosenza vs Sudtirol being played?
The match is being played at Stadio San Vito-Luigi Marulla.
What competition is Cosenza vs Sudtirol part of?
Cosenza vs Sudtirol is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Cosenza vs Sudtirol?
Our statistical model gives Cosenza a 32% chance of winning, Sudtirol a 34% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Cosenza vs Sudtirol?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Cosenza and Sudtirol will score (BTTS).
Will Cosenza vs Sudtirol have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cosenza and Sudtirol?
Record (2 meetings): Cosenza 0W | Draws 2 | Sudtirol 0W.
What form are Cosenza and Sudtirol in?
Cosenza (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-W-D-L-L. Sudtirol (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-L-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Cosenza's attack rating (1.07) and Sudtirol's defence rating (0.80), the model arrives at 1.03 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Sudtirol's attack versus Cosenza's defence, projects 1.05 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 42/41 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.3%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.2%), 0-1 (11.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
32%
3.09
34%
2.93
34%
2.98
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
13.1%
Away win
1 – 0
12.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.03
Cosenza xG
Total xG
2.09
1.05
Sudtirol xG
3.09
32%
Home win
2.93
34%
Draw
2.98
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.27
56%
BTTS No
1.78
Clean Sheet
35%
2.87
36%
2.81
Win to Nil
11%
8.88
12%
8.37
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.4 | 13.1 | 6.9 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.8 | 13.5 | 7.1 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.6 | 7.0 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 2.4 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cosenza vs Sudtirol?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.3%.
How many goals are Cosenza and Sudtirol expected to score?
The model projects 1.03 expected goals for Cosenza and 1.05 for Sudtirol, a combined total of 2.09.
How confident is the prediction model for Cosenza vs Sudtirol?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 34%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Cosenza come into this having played 44 games, going 11W 15D 18L for 1.09 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-D-L-L. It's still early in the season for Cosenza, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Sudtirol sit at 1.61 PPG from 44 outings (18W 17D 9L), a run that reads W-L-D-W-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for Sudtirol, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Sudtirol carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.52 PPG clear of Cosenza — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Cosenza's home form reads 8W 7D 6L across 21 games on their own ground, a 1.48 PPG return.
Away from home, Sudtirol have taken 1.57 points per game from 21 outings (9W 6D 6L).
The Goals Picture
Cosenza are averaging 0.84 goals scored and 1.32 conceded per game recently; Sudtirol are on 1.09 scored and 0.89 conceded.
Defensively: Sudtirol in 41% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 44 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cosenza
Early Season
Sudtirol
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cosenza and Sudtirol in coming into this match?
Cosenza have gone 11W 15D 18L in their last 44 games (1.09 PPG), while Sudtirol have gone 18W 17D 9L in their last 44 (1.61 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cosenza at home or Sudtirol away?
Sudtirol's away record (1.57 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cosenza at home: 1.48 PPG; Sudtirol away: 1.57 PPG.
Have Cosenza or Sudtirol been keeping clean sheets recently?
Cosenza have kept a clean sheet in 27% of their recent games, Sudtirol in 41%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Cosenza and Sudtirol runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 4 May 2025, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Sudtirol go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Cosenza's record when hosting Sudtirol specifically: 0W 2D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Cosenza
3
Draws
2
Sudtirol
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cosenza and Sudtirol?
From 6 meetings on record, Cosenza have won 1, Sudtirol have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Cosenza and Sudtirol last play each other?
They last met on 4 May 2025, when Sudtirol 2-1 Cosenza.
Who has won more matches between Cosenza and Sudtirol?
Sudtirol have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Cosenza are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Sudtirol are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cosenza 52%, Sudtirol 24% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 38% for Cosenza and 19% for Sudtirol.
On the defensive side: Cosenza keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Sudtirol in 52%; Sudtirol in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cosenza home games / Sudtirol away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cosenza play Sudtirol?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of Cosenza's recent matches and 24% of Sudtirol's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Cosenza vs Sudtirol usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of Cosenza's recent games and 19% of Sudtirol's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Cosenza and Sudtirol tend to score early?
Cosenza have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Sudtirol in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Cosenza and Sudtirol share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cosenza and Sudtirol finished level at 2-2 at Stadio San Vito-Luigi Marulla, Regular Season - 5, in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cosenza 1.03 xG and Sudtirol 1.05 xG, a combined 2.09. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Cosenza beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Sudtirol outscored their 1.05 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cosenza attack 1.07 / defence 0.97 against Sudtirol attack 1.04 / defence 0.80, drawn from 42/41 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cosenza 32% | Draw 34% | Sudtirol 34%, with Sudtirol to win its most likely call at 34%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. Over 3.5 was 16% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 32% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cosenza 36%, Sudtirol 27%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cosenza's trading profile (44 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Sudtirol's trading profile (44 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Sudtirol arrived the stronger side — 1.61 PPG against 1.09. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Cosenza (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.10 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 0.90 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Sudtirol (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.90 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 0.81 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.