Feralpisalo 1-1 Modena – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Modena at 46% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Feralpisalo vs Modena encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Feralpisalo host Modena at Stadio Leonardo Garilli in Serie B, Regular Season - 5. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 16 September 2023 at 13:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Feralpisalo — All Games: 0W 0D 4L from 4 Serie B outings this season, averaging 0.00 points per game. Last five: L L L L. They are averaging 0.00 goals per game and conceding 2.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.50 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Feralpisalo have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Modena stand at 5W 3D 2L from 10 Serie B matches — 1.80 PPG. Last five: L W W W W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Modena have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Modena away from home this season: 3W 0D 7L from 10 away games — 0.90 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.90 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form points away from home here. Modena's 1.80 PPG return is 1.80 points per game ahead of Feralpisalo's 0.00 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
In-Play Profile
Feralpisalo in-play tendencies (4 games): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 0% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games; they fail to score in 100% of games.
Modena in-play tendencies (4 games): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time.
The in-play data supports BTTS No — both teams show low combined scoring rates (Feralpisalo 0% | Modena 50%). The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Feralpisalo 50% | Modena 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Feralpisalo 0.99 xG and Modena 1.45 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Feralpisalo attack 0.752 / defence 1.254 | Modena attack 1.113 / defence 1.094. League average goals — home 1.201 / away 1.041. Feralpisalo's attack strength of 0.752 is below the league average — the 0.99 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 4 Feralpisalo games / 41 Modena games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Feralpisalo 24% | Draw 30% | Modena 46%. Fair-value odds: Feralpisalo 4.17 | Draw 3.33 | Modena 2.17. Modena hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.44. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.44 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Modena at 46% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Modena offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.44 combined xG gives a 44% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 50% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Feralpisalo 0% | Modena 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Feralpisalo vs Modena | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Stadio Leonardo Garilli • Kick-off: Saturday 16 Sep 2023, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Feralpisalo 24% | Draw 30% | Modena 46% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 50% | xG Feralpisalo 0.99 / Modena 1.45 • Poisson strength factors: Feralpisalo attack 0.752 / def 1.254 | Modena attack 1.113 / def 1.094 | league avg home 1.201 / away 1.041 • Poisson stance: Modena (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.99
Feralpisalo xG
Expected Goals
1.45
Modena xG
50%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Feralpisalo vs Modena kick off?
Feralpisalo vs Modena kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 16 September 2023 at Stadio Leonardo Garilli.
What was the final score in Feralpisalo vs Modena?
Feralpisalo 1 - 1 Modena.
Where is Feralpisalo vs Modena being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Leonardo Garilli.
What competition is Feralpisalo vs Modena part of?
Feralpisalo vs Modena is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Feralpisalo vs Modena?
Our statistical model gives Feralpisalo a 24% chance of winning, Modena a 46% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Modena the favourite.
Will both teams score in Feralpisalo vs Modena?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Feralpisalo and Modena will score (BTTS).
Will Feralpisalo vs Modena have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Feralpisalo and Modena?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Feralpisalo and Modena in?
Feralpisalo (all comps): 0W-0D-4L in 4 | 0.00 PPG | GF 0.00 / GA 2.50 | L5 L-L-L-L. Modena (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Feralpisalo's attack at 0.75x the league average against Modena's defence at 1.09x — combine the two and it projects 0.99 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Modena's attack versus Feralpisalo's defence, projects 1.45 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 4/41 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (11.0%), 0-0 (10.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Modena Win
24%
4.20
30%
3.31
46%
2.18
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
12.7%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
0 – 2
9.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.99
Feralpisalo xG
Total xG
2.44
1.45
Modena xG
4.20
24%
Home win
3.31
30%
Draw
2.18
46%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.00
50%
BTTS No
2.00
Clean Sheet
23%
4.27
37%
2.69
Win to Nil
6%
17.95
17%
5.84
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.7 | 12.7 | 9.2 | 4.4 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 8.6 | 12.5 | 9.1 | 4.4 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 4.3 | 6.2 | 4.5 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.4 | 2.0 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Feralpisalo vs Modena?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Feralpisalo and Modena expected to score?
The model projects 0.99 expected goals for Feralpisalo and 1.45 for Modena, a combined total of 2.44.
How confident is the prediction model for Feralpisalo vs Modena?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 4 outings, Feralpisalo have picked up 0.00 PPG on a 0W 0D 4L record — L-L-L-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Feralpisalo, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Modena's form line: 4W 0D 0L from 4 games, 3.00 PPG, last five W-W-W-W. It's still early in the season for Modena, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Modena are the form team by 3.00 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Feralpisalo.
Goals in Recent Form
Feralpisalo are averaging 0.00 goals scored and 2.50 conceded per game recently; Modena are on 1.75 scored and 0.50 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Feralpisalo have seen both teams score in 0% of their recent games.
Defensively: Modena in 50% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 4 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Feralpisalo
Early Season
Modena
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Feralpisalo and Modena in coming into this match?
Feralpisalo have gone 0W 0D 4L in their last 4 games (0.00 PPG), while Modena have gone 4W 0D 0L in their last 4 (3.00 PPG).
Have Feralpisalo or Modena been keeping clean sheets recently?
Feralpisalo have kept a clean sheet in 0% of their recent games, Modena in 50%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 9 March 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Feralpisalo
1
Draws
0
Modena
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Feralpisalo and Modena?
From 2 meetings on record, Feralpisalo have won 1, Modena have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Feralpisalo and Modena last play each other?
They last met on 9 March 2024, when Modena 2-3 Feralpisalo.
Who has won more matches between Feralpisalo and Modena?
Feralpisalo have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Feralpisalo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches.
Modena are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — Feralpisalo 0% BTTS, Modena 50%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Feralpisalo) and 50% (Modena).
On the defensive side: Modena in 50%; Feralpisalo have failed to score in 100% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Feralpisalo home games / Modena away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Feralpisalo play Modena?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 0% of Feralpisalo's recent matches and 50% of Modena's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Feralpisalo vs Modena usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Feralpisalo's recent games and 50% of Modena's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Feralpisalo and Modena tend to score early?
Feralpisalo have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Modena in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Feralpisalo and Modena share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadio Leonardo Garilli, Regular Season - 5, as Feralpisalo and Modena drew 1-1 in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Feralpisalo 0.99 xG and Modena 1.45 xG, a combined 2.44. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Feralpisalo attack 0.75 / defence 1.25 against Modena attack 1.11 / defence 1.09, drawn from 4/41 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Feralpisalo 24% | Draw 30% | Modena 46%, with Modena to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Feralpisalo 50%, Modena 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 25%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Feralpisalo's trading profile (4 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 0% of their matches — today it did.
Modena's trading profile (4 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Modena arrived the stronger side — 3.00 PPG against 0.00. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Feralpisalo scored 1 against a 0.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 2.50 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.