Pisa 2-0 Palermo – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Pisa at 43% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Pisa face Palermo.

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Match Analysis

Pisa host Palermo at Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani in Serie B (matchday 2). Kick-off is Saturday 24 August 2024 at 20:30 UK time.

Form Analysis

Looking at their last 10 matches, Pisa stand at 2W 4D 4L — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D L D L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 2.10 conceded. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.

Pisa at home: 4W 4D 2L from their last 10 home games — 1.60 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Pisa are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.

Palermo — last 10 games: 2W 3D 5L — 0.90 PPG. Last five: W W L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).

Palermo away from home: 3W 2D 5L from their last 10 away games — 1.10 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Pisa 1.00 PPG, Palermo 0.90 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.

The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Both teams have scored in 80% of Pisa's games and 60% of Palermo's (from Pisa's last 10 home games and Palermo's last 10 away games) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.

H2H

The H2H picture is flat: the 4 H2H matches we hold have produced 1 wins for Pisa, 1 for Palermo and 2 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here.

These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 5.0 per game across the 4 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 1 Apr 2024, ended Pisa 4–3 Palermo — a Pisa win.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 5.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.

In-Play Profile

Pisa in-play tendencies (last 39 games, 19 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 79% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; of the 11 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 46%; of the 15 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 79% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (home games).

Palermo in-play tendencies (last 39 games, 19 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 74% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; of the 16 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 56%; of the 12 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games).

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Pisa 72% and Palermo 56% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Pisa 56% | Palermo 56%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Pisa surrender their half-time lead 46% of the time, while Palermo have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 33% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle. Note also that Palermo surrender HT leads in 56% of cases while Pisa recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 33% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Pisa 1.56 xG and Palermo 1.30 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Pisa attack 1.190 / defence 1.150 | Palermo attack 0.909 / defence 0.970. League average goals — home 1.351 / away 1.240. Data: built from Pisa's last 39 games and Palermo's last 39. Some of those games are older results, so treat these probabilities as directional rather than precise.

Result probabilities: Pisa 43% | Draw 27% | Palermo 31%. Fair-value odds: Pisa 2.35 | Draw 3.74 | Palermo 3.25. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS Yes probability 58% | Total xG 2.85. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.85 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 58% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Pisa as the most likely outcome at 43% — marginal model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Pisa offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.85 combined xG gives a 54% probability to Over 2.5 — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Pisa's last 10 home games and Palermo's last 10 away games) averaging 3.3 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 5.0 goals per game across 4 H2H matches.

Poisson assigns a 58% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Pisa 80% (last 10 home games) | Palermo 60% (last 10 away games).

The Poisson model's sample (Pisa 39 games, Palermo 39) includes some older results, so its projections carry extra uncertainty — weight recent form and the odds accordingly.

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