Brescia 1-0 Palermo – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Brescia at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Brescia vs Palermo fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Brescia and Palermo meet at Stadio Mario Rigamonti in Serie B, Regular Season - 1. This fixture gets under way on Friday 16 August 2024 at 19:30 UTC.
Current Form
Brescia's overall Serie B record this term: 3W 4D 3L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: D D W L L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Brescia haven't played a Serie B game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
At home at Stadio Mario Rigamonti, Brescia have gone 4W 5D 1L this season (10 games, 1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Palermo have collected 1.00 PPG across 10 Serie B outings this season: 2W 4D 4L. Last five: D W W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Palermo haven't played a Serie B game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
When travelling in Serie B this season, Palermo have posted 3W 3D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.20 PPG. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.30 PPG for Brescia against 1.00 for Palermo. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Brescia lead 1W to 1W over the last 4 encounters, with 2 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.2 per game across 4 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 2 Mar 2024, ended 4–2 with Brescia winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.2 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Brescia goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (39 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Palermo goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (39 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Brescia 54% versus Palermo 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Brescia 33% | Palermo 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Brescia 1.44 xG and Palermo 1.11 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Brescia attack 1.031 / defence 0.911 | Palermo attack 1.046 / defence 1.024. League average goals — home 1.361 / away 1.169. Data: 38 Brescia games / 38 Palermo games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Brescia 43% | Draw 30% | Palermo 28%. Fair-value odds: Brescia 2.33 | Draw 3.33 | Palermo 3.57. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.55. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.55 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Brescia at 43% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Brescia if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.55 combined xG gives a 47% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 3.2 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 53%. Form rates corroborate: Brescia 50% | Palermo 70% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (38 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Brescia vs Palermo | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Stadio Mario Rigamonti • Kick-off: Friday 16 Aug 2024, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Brescia 43% | Draw 30% | Palermo 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 53% | xG Brescia 1.44 / Palermo 1.11 • Poisson strength factors: Brescia attack 1.031 / def 0.911 | Palermo attack 1.046 / def 1.024 | league avg home 1.361 / away 1.169 • Poisson stance: Brescia (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.44
Brescia xG
Expected Goals
1.11
Palermo xG
53%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Brescia vs Palermo kick off?
Brescia vs Palermo kicked off at 19:30 on Friday 16 August 2024 at Stadio Mario Rigamonti.
What was the final score in Brescia vs Palermo?
Brescia 1 - 0 Palermo.
Where is Brescia vs Palermo being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Mario Rigamonti.
What competition is Brescia vs Palermo part of?
Brescia vs Palermo is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Brescia vs Palermo?
Our statistical model gives Brescia a 43% chance of winning, Palermo a 28% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Brescia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Brescia vs Palermo?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Brescia and Palermo will score (BTTS).
Will Brescia vs Palermo have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Brescia and Palermo?
Record (4 meetings): Brescia 1W | Draws 2 | Palermo 1W.
What form are Brescia and Palermo in?
No current-season fixtures available — form shown from previous season data. Brescia (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-D-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Brescia's attack rating (1.03) and Palermo's defence rating (1.02), the model arrives at 1.44 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Palermo's attack (1.05x) against Brescia's defence (0.91x) — and the away total comes out at 1.11.
These ratings are built from 38/38 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.1%. Close behind: 1-0 (9.6%), 0-0 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Brescia Win
43%
2.34
30%
3.36
28%
3.64
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.2%
Home win
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.44
Brescia xG
Total xG
2.55
1.11
Palermo xG
2.34
43%
Home win
3.36
30%
Draw
3.64
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.89
47%
BTTS No
2.12
Clean Sheet
33%
3.04
24%
4.20
Win to Nil
14%
7.13
7%
15.28
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.8 | 8.7 | 4.8 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.2 | 12.5 | 7.0 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.1 | 9.0 | 5.0 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.9 | 4.3 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Brescia vs Palermo?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Brescia and Palermo expected to score?
The model projects 1.44 expected goals for Brescia and 1.11 for Palermo, a combined total of 2.55.
How confident is the prediction model for Brescia vs Palermo?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Brescia's recent record stands at 12W 15D 12L from 39 games, a 1.31 PPG return, with D-D-W-L-L in the last five. Brescia haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
Palermo, meanwhile, have gone 15W 10D 14L across 39 games — 1.41 PPG, with D-W-W-L-L in their last five. Palermo haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.31 PPG for Brescia against 1.41 for Palermo. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Brescia have managed 6W 8D 4L from 18 games — 1.44 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Palermo's away record stands at 6W 6D 6L across 18 trips, a 1.33 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Brescia are averaging 1.18 goals scored and 1.13 conceded per game recently; Palermo are on 1.59 scored and 1.41 conceded.
Last 39 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Brescia
Pre-Season
Palermo
Pre-Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Brescia and Palermo in coming into this match?
Brescia have gone 12W 15D 12L in their last 39 games (1.31 PPG), while Palermo have gone 15W 10D 14L in their last 39 (1.41 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Brescia at home or Palermo away?
Brescia's home record (1.44 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Brescia at home: 1.44 PPG; Palermo away: 1.33 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 2 March 2025, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Brescia have gone 2W 1D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Palermo — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Brescia
2
Draws
2
Palermo
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Brescia and Palermo?
From 6 meetings on record, Brescia have won 2, Palermo have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Brescia and Palermo last play each other?
They last met on 2 March 2025, when Palermo 1-0 Brescia.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Brescia see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Palermo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Brescia 50%, Palermo 61% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Brescia) and 44% (Palermo).
On the defensive side: Brescia keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Brescia have failed to score in 39% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Brescia home games / Palermo away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Brescia play Palermo?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Brescia's games and 61% of Palermo's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Brescia vs Palermo usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Brescia's recent games and 44% of Palermo's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Brescia and Palermo tend to score early?
Brescia have had a goal before half-time in 56% of their recent matches, Palermo in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Brescia edge out Palermo 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Brescia beat Palermo 1-0 at Stadio Mario Rigamonti, Regular Season - 1, in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Brescia 1.44 xG and Palermo 1.11 xG, a combined 2.55. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Palermo landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Brescia attack 1.03 / defence 0.91 against Palermo attack 1.05 / defence 1.02, drawn from 38/38 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Brescia 43% | Draw 30% | Palermo 28%, with Brescia to win its most likely call at 43%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 74% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Brescia 33%, Palermo 59%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Brescia's trading profile (39 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not.
Palermo's trading profile (39 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Brescia 1.31 PPG, Palermo 1.41 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Brescia win broke the near-deadlock. Brescia (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.94 average — tighter than their form line. Palermo (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.50 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.