Sampdoria 0-1 Reggiana – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sampdoria at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Sampdoria vs Reggiana fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Sampdoria and Reggiana meet at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris in Serie B, Regular Season - 2. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 24 August 2024 at 19:30 UTC.
Form
Sampdoria (all games): 4W 4D 2L across 10 Serie B fixtures this term — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W W W L D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Sampdoria have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Sampdoria have posted 3W 4D 3L at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris — 1.30 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Reggiana have collected 1.20 PPG across 10 Serie B outings this season: 3W 3D 4L. Last five: W W L D D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Reggiana have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Reggiana have gone 4W 4D 2L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.60 vs 1.20 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 2 meetings: Sampdoria 2W, Reggiana 0W, 0D.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 5 May 2024, ended 1–0 with Sampdoria winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Sampdoria half-time and goal-timing data (39 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games).
Reggiana half-time and goal-timing data (39 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sampdoria 64% versus Reggiana 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sampdoria 51% | Reggiana 38%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sampdoria 1.27 xG and Reggiana 1.19 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sampdoria attack 1.028 / defence 0.985 | Reggiana attack 0.970 / defence 0.916. League average goals — home 1.351 / away 1.240. Data: 39 Sampdoria games / 39 Reggiana games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Sampdoria 37% | Draw 29% | Reggiana 33%. Fair-value odds: Sampdoria 2.70 | Draw 3.45 | Reggiana 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.46. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.46 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Sampdoria at 37% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Sampdoria if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.46 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 44% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 51% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Sampdoria 70% | Reggiana 40% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (39 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sampdoria vs Reggiana | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris • Kick-off: Saturday 24 Aug 2024, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sampdoria 37% | Draw 29% | Reggiana 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 51% | xG Sampdoria 1.27 / Reggiana 1.19 • Poisson strength factors: Sampdoria attack 1.028 / def 0.985 | Reggiana attack 0.970 / def 0.916 | league avg home 1.351 / away 1.240 • Poisson stance: Sampdoria (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.27
Sampdoria xG
Expected Goals
1.19
Reggiana xG
51%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sampdoria vs Reggiana kick off?
Sampdoria vs Reggiana kicked off at 19:30 on Saturday 24 August 2024 at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris.
What was the final score in Sampdoria vs Reggiana?
Sampdoria 0 - 1 Reggiana.
Where is Sampdoria vs Reggiana being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris.
What competition is Sampdoria vs Reggiana part of?
Sampdoria vs Reggiana is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Sampdoria vs Reggiana?
Our statistical model gives Sampdoria a 37% chance of winning, Reggiana a 33% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Sampdoria the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sampdoria vs Reggiana?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Sampdoria and Reggiana will score (BTTS).
Will Sampdoria vs Reggiana have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sampdoria and Reggiana?
Record (2 meetings): Sampdoria 2W | Draws 0 | Reggiana 0W.
What form are Sampdoria and Reggiana in?
Sampdoria (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-W-L-D. Reggiana (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-W-L-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Sampdoria's attacking strength (1.03x league average) is weighed against Reggiana's defensive record (0.92x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.27. Flip it around — Reggiana's attack (0.97x) against Sampdoria's defence (0.98x) — and the away total comes out at 1.19.
The sample (39/39 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.6%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.3%), 1-0 (9.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sampdoria Win
37%
2.68
29%
3.40
33%
3.01
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.9%
Home win
0 – 1
10.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.27
Sampdoria xG
Total xG
2.46
1.19
Reggiana xG
2.68
37%
Home win
3.40
29%
Draw
3.01
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.96
49%
BTTS No
2.04
Clean Sheet
31%
3.27
28%
3.56
Win to Nil
11%
8.76
9%
10.74
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.6 | 10.2 | 6.0 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.9 | 12.9 | 7.7 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.9 | 8.2 | 4.9 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 3.5 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sampdoria vs Reggiana?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Sampdoria and Reggiana expected to score?
The model projects 1.27 expected goals for Sampdoria and 1.19 for Reggiana, a combined total of 2.46.
How confident is the prediction model for Sampdoria vs Reggiana?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Sampdoria come into this having played 39 games, going 15W 10D 14L for 1.41 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W-L-D. It's still early in the season for Sampdoria, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Reggiana sit at 1.23 PPG from 39 outings (10W 18D 11L), a run that reads W-W-L-D-D across their last five. It's still early in the season for Reggiana, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.41 PPG for Sampdoria against 1.23 for Reggiana. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Sampdoria's home form reads 7W 4D 8L across 19 games on their own ground, a 1.32 PPG return.
Away from home, Reggiana have taken 1.42 points per game from 19 outings (7W 6D 6L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Sampdoria are averaging 1.36 goals scored and 1.36 conceded per game recently; Reggiana are on 1.03 scored and 1.21 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Sampdoria have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games.
Last 39 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sampdoria
Early Season
Reggiana
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sampdoria and Reggiana in coming into this match?
Sampdoria have gone 15W 10D 14L in their last 39 games (1.41 PPG), while Reggiana have gone 10W 18D 11L in their last 39 (1.23 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sampdoria at home or Reggiana away?
Reggiana's away record (1.42 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sampdoria at home: 1.32 PPG; Reggiana away: 1.42 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since December 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. The two were last together as recently as 8 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Sampdoria have gone 2W 0D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Reggiana — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Sampdoria
1
Draws
2
Reggiana
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sampdoria and Reggiana?
From 6 meetings on record, Sampdoria have won 3, Reggiana have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Sampdoria and Reggiana last play each other?
They last met on 8 May 2026, when Reggiana 1-0 Sampdoria.
Who has won more matches between Sampdoria and Reggiana?
Sampdoria have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Sampdoria are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
Reggiana are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sampdoria 63%, Reggiana 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (Sampdoria) and 47% (Reggiana).
On the defensive side: Reggiana in 32%; Reggiana in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sampdoria home games / Reggiana away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sampdoria play Reggiana?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 63% of Sampdoria's recent matches and 42% of Reggiana's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Sampdoria vs Reggiana usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 53% of Sampdoria's recent games and 47% of Reggiana's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sampdoria and Reggiana tend to score early?
Sampdoria have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Reggiana in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Reggiana defy the odds to beat Sampdoria 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Reggiana beat Sampdoria 0-1 at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris, Regular Season - 2, in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sampdoria 1.27 xG and Reggiana 1.19 xG, a combined 2.46. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Sampdoria fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sampdoria attack 1.03 / defence 0.98 against Reggiana attack 0.97 / defence 0.92, drawn from 39/39 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Sampdoria 37% | Draw 29% | Reggiana 33%, with Sampdoria to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual Reggiana win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 71% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sampdoria 51%, Reggiana 38%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sampdoria's trading profile (39 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not.
Reggiana's trading profile (39 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Sampdoria 1.41 PPG, Reggiana 1.23 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Reggiana win broke the near-deadlock. Sampdoria (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.32 scoring average — below par going forward. Reggiana (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.11 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.