Sudtirol 3-2 Salernitana – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Sudtirol at 51% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Sudtirol vs Salernitana encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Sudtirol and Salernitana meet at Stadio Marco Druso in Serie B, Regular Season - 2. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 24 August 2024 at 18:30 UTC.
Form
Sudtirol (all games): 4W 3D 3L across 10 Serie B fixtures this term — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L W D L W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. Sudtirol have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Stadio Marco Druso, Sudtirol have gone 5W 2D 3L this season (10 games, 1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadio Marco Druso. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Salernitana's overall Serie B record this term: 1W 3D 6L from 10 games (0.60 PPG). Last five: L D L D W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 2.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.30 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Salernitana have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Salernitana have gone 0W 4D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.40 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 2.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form ledger tips toward Sudtirol. A 0.90 PPG lead over Salernitana (1.50 vs 0.60) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
Trading & In-Play
Sudtirol — key trading statistics (39 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 47% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; BTTS occurs in 37% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games).
Salernitana — key trading statistics (39 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 90% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sudtirol 54% versus Salernitana 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sudtirol 49% | Salernitana 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sudtirol 1.59 xG and Salernitana 0.98 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sudtirol attack 1.047 / defence 0.947 | Salernitana attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.321 / away 1.214. Data: 39 Sudtirol games / 1 Salernitana games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Sudtirol 51% | Draw 27% | Salernitana 22%. Fair-value odds: Sudtirol 1.96 | Draw 3.70 | Salernitana 4.55. Sudtirol hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.57. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.57 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Sudtirol are the pick at 51% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Sudtirol if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.57 combined xG gives a 47% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 51%. This conflicts with form data: Sudtirol 20% | Salernitana 60% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (1 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sudtirol vs Salernitana | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Stadio Marco Druso • Kick-off: Saturday 24 Aug 2024, 18:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sudtirol 51% | Draw 27% | Salernitana 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 51% | xG Sudtirol 1.59 / Salernitana 0.98 • Poisson strength factors: Sudtirol attack 1.047 / def 0.947 | Salernitana attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 1.321 / away 1.214 • Poisson stance: Sudtirol (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.59
Sudtirol xG
Expected Goals
0.98
Salernitana xG
51%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sudtirol vs Salernitana kick off?
Sudtirol vs Salernitana kicked off at 18:30 on Saturday 24 August 2024 at Stadio Marco Druso.
What was the final score in Sudtirol vs Salernitana?
Sudtirol 3 - 2 Salernitana.
Where is Sudtirol vs Salernitana being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Marco Druso.
What competition is Sudtirol vs Salernitana part of?
Sudtirol vs Salernitana is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Sudtirol vs Salernitana?
Our statistical model gives Sudtirol a 51% chance of winning, Salernitana a 22% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Sudtirol the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sudtirol vs Salernitana?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Sudtirol and Salernitana will score (BTTS).
Will Sudtirol vs Salernitana have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sudtirol and Salernitana?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Sudtirol and Salernitana in?
Sudtirol (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-W-D-L-W. Salernitana (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 2.30 | L5 L-D-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Sudtirol's attack rating (1.05) and Salernitana's defence rating (1.15), the model arrives at 1.59 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Salernitana's attack (0.85x) against Sudtirol's defence (0.95x) — and the away total comes out at 0.98.
The sample (39/1 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.5%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.6%), 2-0 (9.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sudtirol Win
51%
1.97
27%
3.69
22%
4.50
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.2%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
2 – 0
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.59
Sudtirol xG
Total xG
2.57
0.98
Salernitana xG
1.97
51%
Home win
3.69
27%
Draw
4.50
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.97
49%
BTTS No
2.03
Clean Sheet
38%
2.66
20%
4.91
Win to Nil
19%
5.24
5%
22.13
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.7 | 7.5 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.2 | 11.9 | 5.8 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.7 | 9.5 | 4.6 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.2 | 5.0 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.1 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sudtirol vs Salernitana?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are Sudtirol and Salernitana expected to score?
The model projects 1.59 expected goals for Sudtirol and 0.98 for Salernitana, a combined total of 2.57.
How confident is the prediction model for Sudtirol vs Salernitana?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Sudtirol come into this having played 39 games, going 13W 11D 15L for 1.28 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-D-L-W. It's still early in the season for Sudtirol, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Salernitana sit at 0.51 PPG from 39 outings (3W 11D 25L), a run that reads L-D-L-D-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for Salernitana, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Sudtirol carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.77 PPG clear of Salernitana — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Sudtirol's home form reads 8W 4D 7L across 19 games on their own ground, a 1.47 PPG return.
Away from home, Salernitana have taken 0.47 points per game from 19 outings (1W 6D 12L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sudtirol come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Sudtirol are averaging 1.23 goals scored and 1.26 conceded per game recently; Salernitana are on 0.87 scored and 2.10 conceded.
Last 39 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sudtirol
Early Season
Salernitana
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sudtirol and Salernitana in coming into this match?
Sudtirol have gone 13W 11D 15L in their last 39 games (1.28 PPG), while Salernitana have gone 3W 11D 25L in their last 39 (0.51 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sudtirol at home or Salernitana away?
Sudtirol's home record (1.47 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sudtirol at home: 1.47 PPG; Salernitana away: 0.47 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 12 April 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Sudtirol
0
Draws
1
Salernitana
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sudtirol and Salernitana?
From 2 meetings on record, Sudtirol have won 1, Salernitana have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Sudtirol and Salernitana last play each other?
They last met on 12 April 2025, when Salernitana 2-1 Sudtirol.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Sudtirol see a goal before the break in 47% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Salernitana are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sudtirol 37%, Salernitana 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Sudtirol) and 63% (Salernitana).
On the defensive side: Sudtirol keep a clean sheet in 37% of their matches; Sudtirol have failed to score in 42% of games; Salernitana in 47%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sudtirol home games / Salernitana away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sudtirol play Salernitana?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 37% of Sudtirol's recent matches and 47% of Salernitana's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Sudtirol vs Salernitana usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Sudtirol's recent games and 63% of Salernitana's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sudtirol and Salernitana tend to score early?
Sudtirol have had a goal before half-time in 47% of their recent matches, Salernitana in 90% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Sudtirol edge out Salernitana 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sudtirol beat Salernitana 3-2 at Stadio Marco Druso, Regular Season - 2, in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sudtirol 1.59 xG and Salernitana 0.98 xG, a combined 2.57. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Sudtirol beat their projection by 1.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Salernitana outscored their 0.98 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sudtirol attack 1.05 / defence 0.95 against Salernitana attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 39/1 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Sudtirol 51% | Draw 27% | Salernitana 22%, with Sudtirol to win its most likely call at 51%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. Over 3.5 was 26% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sudtirol 49%, Salernitana 67%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sudtirol's trading profile (39 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Salernitana's trading profile (39 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Sudtirol arrived the stronger side — 1.28 PPG against 0.51. Form held, and they took the win. Sudtirol (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.16 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Salernitana (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.79 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.