Pescara 1-2 Sampdoria – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Pescara at 51% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Pescara vs Sampdoria encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Pescara welcome Sampdoria to Stadio Adriatico - Giovanni Cornacchia in Serie B (matchday 34). Kick-off is Saturday 11 April 2026 at 15:00 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Pescara stand at 5W 2D 3L — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W D W L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
At home, Pescara have gone 4W 1D 5L in their last 10 home games (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
Sampdoria — last 10 games: 3W 3D 4L — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L D L W W. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
When travelling, Sampdoria have posted 1W 3D 6L from their last 10 away outings — 0.60 PPG. Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
Pescara carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.50 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.70 vs 1.20. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
Head to Head
The H2H picture is flat: the 1 H2H match we hold have produced 0 wins for Pescara, 1 for Sampdoria and 0 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 1 H2H match in our data have been high-scoring — 5.0 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 5 Oct 2025, ended Pescara 1–4 Sampdoria — a Sampdoria win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 5.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Pescara trading profile (last 33 games, 16 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 75% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; of the 9 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 67%; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
Sampdoria trading profile (last 33 games, 16 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 56% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; of the 4 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 75%; of the 11 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 27%; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Pescara 64% versus Sampdoria 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Pescara 67% | Sampdoria 39%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Pescara 1.62 xG and Sampdoria 0.95 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Pescara attack 1.077 / defence 1.140 | Sampdoria attack 0.763 / defence 1.084. League average goals — home 1.392 / away 1.099. Sampdoria's attack rating of 0.763 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.95. Data: built from Pescara's last 33 games and Sampdoria's last 71.
Result probabilities: Pescara 51% | Draw 28% | Sampdoria 21%. Fair-value odds: Pescara 1.94 | Draw 3.56 | Sampdoria 4.87. Pescara hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS Yes probability 51% | Total xG 2.58. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.58 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 51% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Pescara at 51% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Pescara offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.58 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 52% probability — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 51%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Pescara 40% (last 10 home games) | Sampdoria 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Pescara vs Sampdoria | Competition: Serie B, matchday 34 | Venue: Stadio Adriatico - Giovanni Cornacchia • Kick-off: Saturday 11 April 2026 at 15:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Pescara 51% | Draw 28% | Sampdoria 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% (Under 52%) | BTTS Yes 51% (No 49%) | xG Pescara 1.62 / Sampdoria 0.95 • Poisson strength factors: Pescara attack 1.077 / def 1.140 | Sampdoria attack 0.763 / def 1.084 | league avg home 1.392 / away 1.099 • Poisson stance: Pescara (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.62
Pescara xG
Expected Goals
0.95
Sampdoria xG
51%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Pescara vs Sampdoria FAQs
What time does Pescara vs Sampdoria kick off?
Pescara vs Sampdoria kicked off at 15:00 UK time on Saturday 11 April 2026 at Stadio Adriatico - Giovanni Cornacchia.
What was the final score in Pescara vs Sampdoria?
Pescara 1 - 2 Sampdoria.
Where is Pescara vs Sampdoria being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Adriatico - Giovanni Cornacchia.
What competition is Pescara vs Sampdoria part of?
Pescara vs Sampdoria is a Serie B fixture (matchday 34) (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Pescara vs Sampdoria?
Our statistical model gives Pescara a 51% chance of winning, Sampdoria a 21% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Pescara the favourite.
Will both teams score in Pescara vs Sampdoria?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Pescara and Sampdoria will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Pescara vs Sampdoria have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (52%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Pescara's attack rating (1.08) and Sampdoria's defence rating (1.08), the model arrives at 1.62 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Sampdoria's attack versus Pescara's defence, projects 0.95 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Pescara's last 33 games and Sampdoria's last 71 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.3%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.8%), 2-0 (10.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Pescara Win
51%
1.94
28%
3.56
21%
4.87
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
2 – 0
10.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.62
Pescara xG
Total xG
2.58
0.95
Sampdoria xG
1.94
51%
Home win
3.56
28%
Draw
4.87
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.96
49%
BTTS No
2.04
Clean Sheet
38%
2.60
20%
5.08
Win to Nil
20%
5.05
4%
24.74
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.6 | 7.2 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.3 | 11.8 | 5.6 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.0 | 9.6 | 4.6 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.4 | 5.2 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.2 | 2.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Pescara vs Sampdoria Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Pescara vs Sampdoria?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are Pescara and Sampdoria expected to score?
The model projects 1.62 expected goals for Pescara and 0.95 for Sampdoria, a combined total of 2.58.
How confident is the prediction model for Pescara vs Sampdoria?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Pescara's recent record stands at 7W 11D 15L from 33 games, a 0.97 PPG return, with W-D-W-L-W in the last five.
Sampdoria, meanwhile, have gone 9W 10D 14L across 33 games — 1.12 PPG, with L-D-L-W-W in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Pescara on 0.97 PPG, Sampdoria on 1.12. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Pescara have managed 5W 5D 6L from their last 16 home games — 1.25 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Sampdoria's away record stands at 1W 5D 10L across their last 16 away games, a 0.50 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.12 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Sampdoria's recent record.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Pescara come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Pescara are averaging 1.39 goals scored and 1.79 conceded per game recently; Sampdoria are on 0.97 scored and 1.30 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Pescara have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games.
Last 33 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Pescara
Current Season
Sampdoria
Current Season
Pescara (Home) vs Sampdoria (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Pescara
Current Season
Sampdoria
Current Season
❓ Pescara vs Sampdoria Form FAQs
What form are Pescara and Sampdoria in coming into this match?
Pescara have gone 7W 11D 15L in their last 33 games (0.97 PPG), while Sampdoria have gone 9W 10D 14L in their last 33 (1.12 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Pescara at home or Sampdoria away?
Pescara's home record (1.25 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Pescara at home: 1.25 PPG; Sampdoria away: 0.50 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 2 H2H matches in our data, going back to October 2025. All of them came in Serie B. The most recent was on 11 April 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Pescara
0
Draws
2
Sampdoria
Recent Meetings
❓ Pescara vs Sampdoria H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Pescara and Sampdoria?
Across the 2 head-to-head matches in our data, Pescara have won 0, Sampdoria have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Pescara and Sampdoria last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 11 April 2026: Pescara 1-2 Sampdoria.
Who has won more matches between Pescara and Sampdoria?
Sampdoria have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 2 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Pescara are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 40% of those situations.
Sampdoria see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Pescara 56%, Sampdoria 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 62% (Pescara) and 44% (Sampdoria).
On the defensive side: Sampdoria in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Pescara home games / Sampdoria away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Pescara vs Sampdoria Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Pescara and Sampdoria matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 56% of Pescara's games and 62% of Sampdoria's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Pescara and Sampdoria matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 62% of Pescara's recent games and 44% of Sampdoria's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Pescara and Sampdoria matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 75% of Pescara's recent matches and 56% of Sampdoria's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Sampdoria defy the odds to beat Pescara 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sampdoria beat Pescara 1-2 at Stadio Adriatico - Giovanni Cornacchia, Regular Season - 34, in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Pescara 1.62 xG and Sampdoria 0.95 xG, a combined 2.58. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Sampdoria outscored their 0.95 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Pescara attack 1.08 / defence 1.14 against Sampdoria attack 0.76 / defence 1.08, drawn from 33/71 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Pescara 51% | Draw 28% | Sampdoria 21%, with Pescara to win its most likely call at 51%. Instead the game produced a Sampdoria win, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Pescara 67%, Sampdoria 39%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Pescara's trading profile (33 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Sampdoria's trading profile (33 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Pescara 0.97 PPG, Sampdoria 1.12 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Sampdoria win broke the near-deadlock. Sampdoria (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.69 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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