Parma 2-1 Frosinone – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Parma at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this Parma vs Frosinone fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie B encounter, Regular Season - 7 sees Frosinone travel to Stadio Ennio Tardini to take on Parma. The game is scheduled for Saturday 1 October 2022, 13:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie B games this season, Parma have gone 3W 4D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.30 PPG return. Last five: D W D L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Parma have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Parma have posted 3W 5D 2L at Stadio Ennio Tardini — 1.40 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Frosinone stand at 5W 1D 4L from 10 Serie B matches — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W L W L W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.30. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Frosinone have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Serie B this season, Frosinone have posted 1W 2D 7L from 10 away outings — 0.50 PPG. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.50 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.30 PPG (Parma) versus 1.60 (Frosinone). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Parma, 1 for Frosinone and 1 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 21 Jan 2022, ended 0–1 with Frosinone winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Parma in-play and half-time data (44 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
Frosinone in-play and half-time data (44 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Parma 57% versus Frosinone 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Parma 46% | Frosinone 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Parma 1.43 xG and Frosinone 1.06 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Parma attack 1.097 / defence 1.174 | Frosinone attack 0.856 / defence 1.023. League average goals — home 1.275 / away 1.055. Data: 44 Parma games / 44 Frosinone games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Parma 46% | Draw 26% | Frosinone 28%. Fair-value odds: Parma 2.17 | Draw 3.85 | Frosinone 3.57. Parma hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.49. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.49 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Parma at 46% — moderate model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Parma offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.49 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 45% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 50% on No. Form rates corroborate: Parma 60% | Frosinone 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Parma vs Frosinone | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Stadio Ennio Tardini • Kick-off: Saturday 1 Oct 2022, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Parma 46% | Draw 26% | Frosinone 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 50% | xG Parma 1.43 / Frosinone 1.06 • Poisson strength factors: Parma attack 1.097 / def 1.174 | Frosinone attack 0.856 / def 1.023 | league avg home 1.275 / away 1.055 • Poisson stance: Parma (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.43
Parma xG
Expected Goals
1.06
Frosinone xG
50%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Parma vs Frosinone kick off?
Parma vs Frosinone kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 1 October 2022 at Stadio Ennio Tardini.
What was the final score in Parma vs Frosinone?
Parma 2 - 1 Frosinone.
Where is Parma vs Frosinone being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Ennio Tardini.
What competition is Parma vs Frosinone part of?
Parma vs Frosinone is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Parma vs Frosinone?
Our statistical model gives Parma a 46% chance of winning, Frosinone a 28% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Parma the favourite.
Will both teams score in Parma vs Frosinone?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Parma and Frosinone will score (BTTS).
Will Parma vs Frosinone have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Parma and Frosinone?
Record (2 meetings): Parma 0W | Draws 1 | Frosinone 1W.
What form are Parma and Frosinone in?
Parma (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-W-D-L-W. Frosinone (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Parma's attack at 1.10x the league average against Frosinone's defence at 1.02x — combine the two and it projects 1.43 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Frosinone's attack versus Parma's defence, projects 1.06 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 44/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (10.2%), 0-0 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Parma Win
46%
2.20
26%
3.78
28%
3.58
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.8%
Home win
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.43
Parma xG
Total xG
2.49
1.06
Frosinone xG
2.20
46%
Home win
3.78
26%
Draw
3.58
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.01
50%
BTTS No
1.99
Clean Sheet
35%
2.89
24%
4.18
Win to Nil
16%
6.35
7%
14.95
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.3 | 8.8 | 4.7 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.8 | 12.6 | 6.7 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.5 | 9.0 | 4.8 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.0 | 4.3 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Parma vs Frosinone?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Parma and Frosinone expected to score?
The model projects 1.43 expected goals for Parma and 1.06 for Frosinone, a combined total of 2.49.
How confident is the prediction model for Parma vs Frosinone?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Parma come into this having played 44 games, going 13W 19D 12L for 1.32 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-D-L-W. It's still early in the season for Parma, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Frosinone sit at 1.59 PPG from 44 outings (19W 13D 12L), a run that reads W-L-W-L-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for Frosinone, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Parma on 1.32 PPG, Frosinone on 1.59. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Parma's home form reads 6W 10D 6L across 22 games on their own ground, a 1.27 PPG return.
Away from home, Frosinone have taken 1.14 points per game from 22 outings (6W 7D 9L). That's a step down from their 1.59 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Frosinone's season.
The Goals Picture
Parma are averaging 1.34 goals scored and 1.18 conceded per game recently; Frosinone are on 1.50 scored and 1.09 conceded.
Defensively: Frosinone in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 44 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Parma
Early Season
Frosinone
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Parma and Frosinone in coming into this match?
Parma have gone 13W 19D 12L in their last 44 games (1.32 PPG), while Frosinone have gone 19W 13D 12L in their last 44 (1.59 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Parma at home or Frosinone away?
Parma's home record (1.27 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Parma at home: 1.27 PPG; Frosinone away: 1.14 PPG.
Have Parma or Frosinone been keeping clean sheets recently?
Parma have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Frosinone in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Parma and Frosinone runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 24 February 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Parma have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Parma's record when hosting Frosinone specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Parma
1
Draws
1
Frosinone
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Parma and Frosinone?
From 4 meetings on record, Parma have won 2, Frosinone have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Parma and Frosinone last play each other?
They last met on 24 February 2023, when Frosinone 3-4 Parma.
Who has won more matches between Parma and Frosinone?
Parma have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Parma are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 23% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Frosinone are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Parma 59%, Frosinone 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 36% (Parma) and 41% (Frosinone).
On the defensive side: Frosinone in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Parma home games / Frosinone away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Parma play Frosinone?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 59% of Parma's recent matches and 46% of Frosinone's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Parma vs Frosinone usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 36% of Parma's recent games and 41% of Frosinone's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Parma and Frosinone tend to score early?
Parma have had a goal before half-time in 82% of their recent matches, Frosinone in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Parma edge out Frosinone 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Parma beat Frosinone 2-1 at Stadio Ennio Tardini, Regular Season - 7, in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Parma 1.43 xG and Frosinone 1.06 xG, a combined 2.49. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Parma attack 1.10 / defence 1.17 against Frosinone attack 0.86 / defence 1.02, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Parma 46% | Draw 26% | Frosinone 28%, with Parma to win its most likely call at 46%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Parma 46%, Frosinone 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Parma's trading profile (44 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Frosinone's trading profile (44 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Parma 1.32 PPG, Frosinone 1.59 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Parma win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.