Perugia 1-3 Pisa – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Perugia at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this Perugia vs Pisa fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Perugia host Pisa at Stadio Renato Curi in Serie B, Regular Season - 7. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 1 October 2022 at 15:15 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Perugia stand at 3W 1D 6L from 10 Serie B matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D L L W L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Perugia have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Perugia's home record at Stadio Renato Curi: 3W 4D 3L from 10 Serie B appearances (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game.
Pisa — All Games: 1W 2D 7L from 10 Serie B fixtures this season — 0.50 PPG. Last five: D L L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Pisa have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Pisa's away record: 1W 2D 7L from 10 road trips in Serie B this season (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Perugia are in the better shape of the two on current Serie B data — 0.50 PPG ahead (1.00 vs 0.50). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Perugia, 0 for Pisa and 2 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 10 Apr 2022, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Perugia trading profile (45 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 18% of games (home games).
Pisa trading profile (45 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 32% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Perugia 49% versus Pisa 53%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Perugia 31% | Pisa 36%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Perugia 1.37 xG and Pisa 1.03 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Perugia attack 0.831 / defence 0.885 | Pisa attack 1.052 / defence 1.291. League average goals — home 1.279 / away 1.108. Pisa bring a strong defensive rating of 1.291 — this is suppressing Perugia's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 44 Perugia games / 44 Pisa games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Perugia 45% | Draw 27% | Pisa 28%. Fair-value odds: Perugia 2.22 | Draw 3.70 | Pisa 3.57. Perugia hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.40. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.40 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Perugia as the most likely outcome at 45% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Perugia offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.40 combined xG gives a 43% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 48% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Perugia 50% | Pisa 70% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Perugia vs Pisa | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Stadio Renato Curi • Kick-off: Saturday 1 Oct 2022, 15:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Perugia 45% | Draw 27% | Pisa 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 48% | xG Perugia 1.37 / Pisa 1.03 • Poisson strength factors: Perugia attack 0.831 / def 0.885 | Pisa attack 1.052 / def 1.291 | league avg home 1.279 / away 1.108 • Poisson stance: Perugia (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.37
Perugia xG
Expected Goals
1.03
Pisa xG
48%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Perugia vs Pisa kick off?
Perugia vs Pisa kicked off at 15:15 on Saturday 1 October 2022 at Stadio Renato Curi.
What was the final score in Perugia vs Pisa?
Perugia 1 - 3 Pisa.
Where is Perugia vs Pisa being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Renato Curi.
What competition is Perugia vs Pisa part of?
Perugia vs Pisa is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Perugia vs Pisa?
Our statistical model gives Perugia a 45% chance of winning, Pisa a 28% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Perugia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Perugia vs Pisa?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Perugia and Pisa will score (BTTS).
Will Perugia vs Pisa have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Perugia and Pisa?
Record (2 meetings): Perugia 0W | Draws 2 | Pisa 0W.
What form are Perugia and Pisa in?
Perugia (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-L-L-W-L. Pisa (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-L-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Perugia's attack rating (0.83) and Pisa's defence rating (1.29), the model arrives at 1.37 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Pisa's attack versus Perugia's defence, projects 1.03 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 44/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.5%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.7%), 0-0 (10.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Perugia Win
45%
2.24
27%
3.69
28%
3.54
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.4%
Home win
0 – 1
9.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.37
Perugia xG
Total xG
2.40
1.03
Pisa xG
2.24
45%
Home win
3.69
27%
Draw
3.54
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.08
52%
BTTS No
1.92
Clean Sheet
36%
2.80
25%
3.95
Win to Nil
16%
6.28
7%
13.99
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.0 | 9.3 | 4.8 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.4 | 12.8 | 6.6 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.5 | 8.8 | 4.5 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.9 | 4.0 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Perugia vs Pisa?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Perugia and Pisa expected to score?
The model projects 1.37 expected goals for Perugia and 1.03 for Pisa, a combined total of 2.40.
How confident is the prediction model for Perugia vs Pisa?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Perugia's recent record stands at 15W 17D 13L from 45 games, a 1.38 PPG return, with D-L-L-W-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for Perugia, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Pisa, meanwhile, have gone 16W 15D 14L across 45 games — 1.40 PPG, with D-L-L-L-D in their last five. It's still early in the season for Pisa, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Perugia on 1.38 PPG, Pisa on 1.40. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Perugia have managed 7W 9D 6L from 22 games — 1.36 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Pisa's away record stands at 6W 6D 10L across 22 trips, a 1.09 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Perugia are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.96 conceded per game recently; Pisa are on 1.18 scored and 1.16 conceded.
Defensively: Perugia have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 45 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Perugia
Early Season
Pisa
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Perugia and Pisa in coming into this match?
Perugia have gone 15W 17D 13L in their last 45 games (1.38 PPG), while Pisa have gone 16W 15D 14L in their last 45 (1.40 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Perugia at home or Pisa away?
Perugia's home record (1.36 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Perugia at home: 1.36 PPG; Pisa away: 1.09 PPG.
Have Perugia or Pisa been keeping clean sheets recently?
Perugia have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, Pisa in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Perugia and Pisa runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 24 February 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Pisa go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Perugia's record when hosting Pisa specifically: 0W 1D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Perugia
2
Draws
2
Pisa
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Perugia and Pisa?
From 4 meetings on record, Perugia have won 0, Pisa have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Perugia and Pisa last play each other?
They last met on 24 February 2023, when Pisa 2-1 Perugia.
Who has won more matches between Perugia and Pisa?
Pisa have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Perugia see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
Pisa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Perugia 46%, Pisa 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 18% for Perugia and 32% for Pisa.
On the defensive side: Perugia keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Perugia have failed to score in 27% of games; Pisa in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Perugia home games / Pisa away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Perugia play Pisa?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Perugia's recent matches and 54% of Pisa's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Perugia vs Pisa usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 18% of Perugia's recent games and 32% of Pisa's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Perugia and Pisa tend to score early?
Perugia have had a goal before half-time in 59% of their recent matches, Pisa in 82% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Pisa cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Perugia.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Pisa beat Perugia 1-3 at Stadio Renato Curi, Regular Season - 7, in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Perugia 1.37 xG and Pisa 1.03 xG, a combined 2.40. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Pisa outscored their 1.03 projection by 2.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Perugia attack 0.83 / defence 0.89 against Pisa attack 1.05 / defence 1.29, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Perugia 45% | Draw 27% | Pisa 28%, with Perugia to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual Pisa win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. Over 3.5 was 22% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 33% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Perugia 31%, Pisa 36%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Perugia's trading profile (45 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Pisa's trading profile (45 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Perugia 1.38 PPG, Pisa 1.40 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Pisa win broke the near-deadlock. Perugia (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 0.86 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Pisa (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.95 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.