Frosinone 1-0 Palermo – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Frosinone at 73%, yet other data sources diverge — this Frosinone vs Palermo fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadio Benito Stirpe plays host to Frosinone versus Palermo in Serie B, Regular Season - 6. Kick-off: Saturday 17 September 2022 at 13:00 UTC.
Form
Frosinone (all games): 5W 1D 4L across 10 Serie B fixtures this term — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W W L W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Frosinone have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Frosinone have posted 8W 0D 2L at Stadio Benito Stirpe — 2.40 PPG. They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadio Benito Stirpe. Their home PPG of 2.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.60 — Frosinone are significantly better at Stadio Benito Stirpe than their overall form suggests.
Palermo have collected 1.40 PPG across 5 Serie B outings this season: 2W 1D 2L. Last five: W D L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets in 5 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Palermo have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.60 PPG for Frosinone against 1.40 for Palermo. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Trading Data
Frosinone goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (5 games): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures; they lead at the break 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 20% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games; they keep a clean sheet 60% of the time.
Palermo goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (5 games): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
The in-play data supports BTTS No — both teams show low combined scoring rates (Frosinone 20% | Palermo 40%). Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Frosinone 40% | Palermo 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Frosinone 2.08 xG and Palermo 0.58 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Frosinone attack 1.316 / defence 0.729 | Palermo attack 0.734 / defence 1.238. League average goals — home 1.275 / away 1.078. Frosinone carry an above-average attack strength of 1.316 — their λ of 2.08 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Palermo bring a strong defensive rating of 1.238 — this is suppressing Frosinone's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Frosinone's defence rating of 0.729 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 43 Frosinone games / 5 Palermo games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Frosinone 73% | Draw 18% | Palermo 9%. Fair-value odds: Frosinone 1.37 | Draw 5.56 | Palermo 11.11. The model has a clear lean to Frosinone (73%) — a 64pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 38% | Total xG 2.65. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.65 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 38% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Frosinone are the pick at 73% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 18% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.65 combined xG gives a 50% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 38%. Form rates corroborate: Frosinone 40% | Palermo 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Frosinone vs Palermo | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Stadio Benito Stirpe • Kick-off: Saturday 17 Sep 2022, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Frosinone 73% | Draw 18% | Palermo 9% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 38% | xG Frosinone 2.08 / Palermo 0.58 • Poisson strength factors: Frosinone attack 1.316 / def 0.729 | Palermo attack 0.734 / def 1.238 | league avg home 1.275 / away 1.078 • Poisson stance: Frosinone (73%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.08
Frosinone xG
Expected Goals
0.58
Palermo xG
38%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Frosinone vs Palermo kick off?
Frosinone vs Palermo kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 17 September 2022 at Stadio Benito Stirpe.
What was the final score in Frosinone vs Palermo?
Frosinone 1 - 0 Palermo.
Where is Frosinone vs Palermo being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Benito Stirpe.
What competition is Frosinone vs Palermo part of?
Frosinone vs Palermo is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Frosinone vs Palermo?
Our statistical model gives Frosinone a 73% chance of winning, Palermo a 9% chance, and a 18% chance of a draw — making Frosinone the favourite.
Will both teams score in Frosinone vs Palermo?
Our model estimates a 38% probability that both Frosinone and Palermo will score (BTTS).
Will Frosinone vs Palermo have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Frosinone and Palermo?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Frosinone and Palermo in?
Frosinone (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-W-L-W-L. Palermo (all comps): 2W-1D-2L in 5 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-D-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Frosinone's attack at 1.32x the league average against Palermo's defence at 1.24x — combine the two and it projects 2.08 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Palermo's attack (0.73x) against Frosinone's defence (0.73x) — and the away total comes out at 0.58.
These ratings are built from 43/5 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-0 carries the highest individual probability at 15.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (13.5%), 3-0 (10.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Frosinone Win
73%
1.38
18%
5.45
9%
11.00
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
15.2%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
14.6%
Home win
3 – 0
10.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.08
Frosinone xG
Total xG
2.65
0.58
Palermo xG
1.38
73%
Home win
5.45
18%
Draw
11.00
9%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
38%
BTTS Yes
2.61
62%
BTTS No
1.62
Clean Sheet
56%
1.78
13%
7.99
Win to Nil
41%
2.45
1%
87.88
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.0 | 4.1 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 1 | 14.6 | 8.4 | 2.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 15.2 | 8.8 | 2.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 10.5 | 6.1 | 1.8 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 4 | 5.5 | 3.2 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 2.3 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Frosinone vs Palermo?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Frosinone and Palermo expected to score?
The model projects 2.08 expected goals for Frosinone and 0.58 for Palermo, a combined total of 2.65.
How confident is the prediction model for Frosinone vs Palermo?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 73%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Frosinone's recent record stands at 3W 0D 2L from 5 games, a 1.80 PPG return, with W-W-L-W-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for Frosinone, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Palermo, meanwhile, have gone 2W 1D 2L across 5 games — 1.40 PPG, with W-D-L-L-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for Palermo, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Frosinone by 0.40 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Palermo heading into this one.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Frosinone are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game recently; Palermo are on 1.20 scored and 1.40 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Frosinone have seen both teams score in 20% of their recent games.
Defensively: Frosinone have kept a clean sheet in 60% of their games; Palermo in 40% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 5 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Frosinone
Early Season
Palermo
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Frosinone and Palermo in coming into this match?
Frosinone have gone 3W 0D 2L in their last 5 games (1.80 PPG), while Palermo have gone 2W 1D 2L in their last 5 (1.40 PPG).
Have Frosinone or Palermo been keeping clean sheets recently?
Frosinone have kept a clean sheet in 60% of their recent games, Palermo in 40%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since September 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. They last met on 10 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Frosinone have gone 1W 2D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Palermo — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Frosinone
4
Draws
1
Palermo
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Frosinone and Palermo?
From 6 meetings on record, Frosinone have won 1, Palermo have won 1, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Frosinone and Palermo last play each other?
They last met on 10 April 2026, when Frosinone 1-1 Palermo.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Frosinone are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 60% of the time.
Palermo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
Neither side has been leaking BTTS chances often — 20% (Frosinone) and 40% (Palermo) both sit on the low side, favouring BTTS No.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Frosinone) and 40% (Palermo).
On the defensive side: Frosinone keep a clean sheet in 60% of their matches; Palermo in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Frosinone home games / Palermo away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Frosinone play Palermo?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 20% of Frosinone's recent matches and 40% of Palermo's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Frosinone vs Palermo usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Frosinone's recent games and 40% of Palermo's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Frosinone and Palermo tend to score early?
Frosinone have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Palermo in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Frosinone edge out Palermo 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Frosinone beat Palermo 1-0 at Stadio Benito Stirpe, Regular Season - 6, in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Frosinone 2.08 xG and Palermo 0.58 xG, a combined 2.65. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Frosinone fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Frosinone attack 1.32 / defence 0.73 against Palermo attack 0.73 / defence 1.24, drawn from 43/5 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Frosinone 73% | Draw 18% | Palermo 9%, with Frosinone to win its most likely call at 73%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 74% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 38% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Frosinone 40%, Palermo 40%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 30%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Frosinone's trading profile (5 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 20% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 60% of the time, and duly kept one.
Palermo's trading profile (5 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Frosinone arrived the stronger side — 1.80 PPG against 1.40. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Palermo managed 0 against a 1.20 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.