Parma 1-1 Cremonese – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Parma at 48% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Parma face Cremonese.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Parma host Cremonese at Stadio Ennio Tardini in Serie B (matchday 37). Kick-off is Sunday 5 May 2024 at 15:00 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Parma stand at 5W 4D 1L — 1.90 PPG. Last five: D W D W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 0.70 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
At home, Parma have gone 6W 3D 1L in their last 10 home games (2.10 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Cremonese — last 10 games: 5W 1D 4L — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W L D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Cremonese away from home: 5W 2D 3L from their last 10 away games — 1.70 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from their last 10 away games (50%) — they are hard to break down on the road.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Parma at 1.90 PPG versus Cremonese's 1.60. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H Record
The H2H picture is flat: the 3 H2H matches we hold have produced 1 wins for Parma, 2 for Cremonese and 0 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 3 H2H matches in our data averaged 3.3 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 1 Oct 2023, ended Parma 2–1 Cremonese — a Parma win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.3 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Parma trading profile (last 74 games, 37 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 78% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 63% of the time; of the 14 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 29%; BTTS occurs in 49% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games).
Cremonese trading profile (last 74 games, 37 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 57% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Parma 50% versus Cremonese 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Parma 45% | Cremonese 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Parma 1.42 xG and Cremonese 0.88 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Parma attack 1.280 / defence 0.908 | Cremonese attack 0.821 / defence 0.905. League average goals — home 1.226 / away 1.176. Parma carry an above-average attack rating of 1.280 — their 1.42 xG reflects attacking quality above the league norm. Data: built from Parma's last 74 games and Cremonese's last 36.
Result probabilities: Parma 48% | Draw 31% | Cremonese 21%. Fair-value odds: Parma 2.09 | Draw 3.26 | Cremonese 4.68. Parma hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (31%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS Yes probability 46% | Total xG 2.30. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.30 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 54% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Parma as the most likely outcome at 48% — moderate model lean. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Parma offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.30 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 60% probability — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 3.3 goals per game across 3 H2H matches points the other way.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 54%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Parma 70% (last 10 home games) | Cremonese 40% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Parma vs Cremonese | Competition: Serie B, matchday 37 | Venue: Stadio Ennio Tardini • Kick-off: Sunday 5 May 2024 at 15:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Parma 48% | Draw 31% | Cremonese 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% (Under 60%) | BTTS Yes 46% (No 54%) | xG Parma 1.42 / Cremonese 0.88 • Poisson strength factors: Parma attack 1.280 / def 0.908 | Cremonese attack 0.821 / def 0.905 | league avg home 1.226 / away 1.176 • Poisson stance: Parma (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.42
Parma xG
Expected Goals
0.88
Cremonese xG
46%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Parma vs Cremonese FAQs
What time does Parma vs Cremonese kick off?
Parma vs Cremonese kicked off at 15:00 UK time on Sunday 5 May 2024 at Stadio Ennio Tardini.
What was the final score in Parma vs Cremonese?
Parma 1 - 1 Cremonese.
Where is Parma vs Cremonese being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Ennio Tardini.
What competition is Parma vs Cremonese part of?
Parma vs Cremonese is a Serie B fixture (matchday 37) (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Parma vs Cremonese?
Our statistical model gives Parma a 48% chance of winning, Cremonese a 21% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Parma the favourite.
Will both teams score in Parma vs Cremonese?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Parma and Cremonese will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (54%).
Will Parma vs Cremonese have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (60%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Parma's attack rating (1.28) and Cremonese's defence rating (0.91), the model arrives at 1.42 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Cremonese's attack versus Parma's defence, projects 0.88 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Parma's last 74 games and Cremonese's last 36 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.1%. Close behind: 1-0 (12.7%), 0-0 (11.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Parma Win
48%
2.09
31%
3.26
21%
4.68
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
2 – 0
10.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.42
Parma xG
Total xG
2.30
0.88
Cremonese xG
2.09
48%
Home win
3.26
31%
Draw
4.68
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.17
54%
BTTS No
1.85
Clean Sheet
42%
2.40
24%
4.14
Win to Nil
20%
5.01
5%
19.37
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.1 | 8.8 | 3.9 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 14.3 | 12.5 | 5.5 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.2 | 8.9 | 3.9 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 4.8 | 4.2 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.7 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Parma vs Cremonese Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Parma vs Cremonese?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Parma and Cremonese expected to score?
The model projects 1.42 expected goals for Parma and 0.88 for Cremonese, a combined total of 2.30.
How confident is the prediction model for Parma vs Cremonese?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 74 outings, Parma have picked up 1.81 PPG on a 38W 20D 16L record — D-W-D-W-D across the most recent five.
Cremonese's form line: 23W 21D 30L from 74 games, 1.22 PPG, last five W-L-D-L-W.
Put side by side, Parma are the form team by 0.59 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Cremonese.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Parma have posted 2.00 PPG from their last 37 home games (22W 8D 7L).
On the road, Cremonese have gone 11W 12D 14L from their last 37 away games — 1.22 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Parma come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Parma are averaging 1.51 goals scored and 0.99 conceded per game recently; Cremonese are on 1.11 scored and 1.35 conceded.
Defensively: Parma have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 74 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Parma
Current Season
Cremonese
Current Season
Parma (Home) vs Cremonese (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Parma
Current Season
Cremonese
Current Season
❓ Parma vs Cremonese Form FAQs
What form are Parma and Cremonese in coming into this match?
Parma have gone 38W 20D 16L in their last 74 games (1.81 PPG), while Cremonese have gone 23W 21D 30L in their last 74 (1.22 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Parma at home or Cremonese away?
Parma's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Parma at home: 2.00 PPG; Cremonese away: 1.22 PPG.
Have Parma or Cremonese been keeping clean sheets recently?
Parma have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, Cremonese in 28%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 6 H2H matches in our data, going back to September 2021. They cover more than one competition — Serie B, Serie A. The most recent was on 21 March 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Parma's record when hosting Cremonese specifically: 0W 1D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Parma
2
Draws
3
Cremonese
Recent Meetings
❓ Parma vs Cremonese H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Parma and Cremonese?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Parma have won 1, Cremonese have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Parma and Cremonese last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 21 March 2026: Parma 0-2 Cremonese.
Who has won more matches between Parma and Cremonese?
Cremonese have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Parma are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Cremonese see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 31% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Parma 49%, Cremonese 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Parma) and 54% (Cremonese).
On the defensive side: Parma keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Cremonese in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Parma home games / Cremonese away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Parma vs Cremonese Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Parma and Cremonese matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 49% of Parma's recent matches and 57% of Cremonese's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Parma and Cremonese matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Parma's recent games and 54% of Cremonese's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Parma and Cremonese matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 78% of Parma's recent matches and 57% of Cremonese's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Parma and Cremonese share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadio Ennio Tardini, Regular Season - 37, as Parma and Cremonese drew 1-1 in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Parma 1.42 xG and Cremonese 0.88 xG, a combined 2.30. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Parma attack 1.28 / defence 0.91 against Cremonese attack 0.82 / defence 0.91, drawn from 74/36 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Parma 48% | Draw 31% | Cremonese 21%, with Parma to win its most likely call at 48%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Parma 45%, Cremonese 49%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Parma's trading profile (74 games, 37 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Cremonese's trading profile (74 games, 37 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Parma arrived the stronger side — 1.81 PPG against 1.22. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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