Ternana 1-0 Catanzaro – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Catanzaro at 41% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Ternana vs Catanzaro encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie B clash, Regular Season - 37 as Ternana welcome Catanzaro to Stadio Libero Liberati. Kick-off is set for Sunday 5 May 2024 at 14:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Ternana stand at 3W 2D 5L from 10 Serie B matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: D W D L L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Ternana's form when playing at home: 3W 4D 3L across 10 games at Stadio Libero Liberati this term (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game.
Across all Serie B games this season, Catanzaro have recorded 5W 3D 2L from 10 outings — 1.80 PPG. Last five: L W D D W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 0.90. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Catanzaro's form when playing away from home: 4W 3D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Catanzaro are 0.70 PPG ahead (1.80 vs 1.10), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Ternana, 1 for Catanzaro and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 27 Aug 2023, ended 1–2 with Catanzaro winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Ternana trading profile (36 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 28% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Catanzaro trading profile (36 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 94% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ternana 58% versus Catanzaro 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ternana 50% | Catanzaro 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ternana 0.86 xG and Catanzaro 1.18 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ternana attack 0.722 / defence 0.889 | Catanzaro attack 1.126 / defence 0.974. League average goals — home 1.226 / away 1.176. Ternana's attack strength of 0.722 is below the league average — the 0.86 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 74 Ternana games / 36 Catanzaro games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ternana 25% | Draw 34% | Catanzaro 41%. Fair-value odds: Ternana 4.00 | Draw 2.94 | Catanzaro 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 33% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.04. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 67% probability — total xG of 2.04 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Catanzaro as the most likely outcome at 41% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 34% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Catanzaro offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.04 combined xG gives a 33% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 42% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Ternana 50% | Catanzaro 50%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ternana vs Catanzaro | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 37 | Venue: Stadio Libero Liberati • Kick-off: Sunday 5 May 2024, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ternana 25% | Draw 34% | Catanzaro 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 33% | BTTS 42% | xG Ternana 0.86 / Catanzaro 1.18 • Poisson strength factors: Ternana attack 0.722 / def 0.889 | Catanzaro attack 1.126 / def 0.974 | league avg home 1.226 / away 1.176 • Poisson stance: Catanzaro (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.86
Ternana xG
Expected Goals
1.18
Catanzaro xG
42%
BTTS
62%
Over 1.5
33%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ternana vs Catanzaro kick off?
Ternana vs Catanzaro kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 5 May 2024 at Stadio Libero Liberati.
What was the final score in Ternana vs Catanzaro?
Ternana 1 - 0 Catanzaro.
Where is Ternana vs Catanzaro being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Libero Liberati.
What competition is Ternana vs Catanzaro part of?
Ternana vs Catanzaro is a Regular Season - 37 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Ternana vs Catanzaro?
Our statistical model gives Ternana a 25% chance of winning, Catanzaro a 41% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making Catanzaro the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ternana vs Catanzaro?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Ternana and Catanzaro will score (BTTS).
Will Ternana vs Catanzaro have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 33%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ternana and Catanzaro?
Record (1 meetings): Ternana 0W | Draws 0 | Catanzaro 1W.
What form are Ternana and Catanzaro in?
Ternana (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-W-D-L-L. Catanzaro (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-W-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Ternana's attack rating (0.72) and Catanzaro's defence rating (0.97), the model arrives at 0.86 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Catanzaro's attack versus Ternana's defence, projects 1.18 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 74/36 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.9%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.7%), 0-1 (13.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Catanzaro Win
25%
4.00
34%
2.96
41%
2.43
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
15.3%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
0 – 0
13.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.86
Ternana xG
Total xG
2.04
1.18
Catanzaro xG
4.00
25%
Home win
2.96
34%
Draw
2.43
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
60%
Over 1.5
1.67
40%
Under 1.5
2.50
33%
Over 2.5
3.03
67%
Under 2.5
1.49
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.39
58%
BTTS No
1.72
Clean Sheet
31%
3.24
42%
2.37
Win to Nil
8%
12.98
17%
5.75
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.0 | 15.3 | 9.0 | 3.5 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.2 | 13.2 | 7.8 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 4.8 | 5.7 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.4 | 1.6 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ternana vs Catanzaro?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Ternana and Catanzaro expected to score?
The model projects 0.86 expected goals for Ternana and 1.18 for Catanzaro, a combined total of 2.04.
How confident is the prediction model for Ternana vs Catanzaro?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Ternana's recent record stands at 9W 10D 17L from 36 games, a 1.03 PPG return, with D-W-D-L-L in the last five.
Catanzaro, meanwhile, have gone 17W 9D 10L across 36 games — 1.67 PPG, with L-W-D-D-W in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Catanzaro by 0.64 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Ternana heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Ternana have managed 4W 7D 7L from 18 games — 1.06 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Catanzaro's away record stands at 8W 5D 5L across 18 trips, a 1.61 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Catanzaro come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Ternana are averaging 1.14 goals scored and 1.39 conceded per game recently; Catanzaro are on 1.61 scored and 1.28 conceded.
Last 36 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ternana
Current Season
Catanzaro
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ternana and Catanzaro in coming into this match?
Ternana have gone 9W 10D 17L in their last 36 games (1.03 PPG), while Catanzaro have gone 17W 9D 10L in their last 36 (1.67 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ternana at home or Catanzaro away?
Catanzaro's away record (1.61 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ternana at home: 1.06 PPG; Catanzaro away: 1.61 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 5 May 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Ternana
0
Draws
1
Catanzaro
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ternana and Catanzaro?
From 2 meetings on record, Ternana have won 1, Catanzaro have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Ternana and Catanzaro last play each other?
They last met on 5 May 2024, when Ternana 1-0 Catanzaro.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Ternana see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Catanzaro are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 94% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 56% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ternana 44%, Catanzaro 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 28% (Ternana) and 50% (Catanzaro).
On the defensive side: Ternana have failed to score in 44% of games; Catanzaro in 28%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ternana home games / Catanzaro away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ternana play Catanzaro?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Ternana's recent matches and 56% of Catanzaro's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Ternana vs Catanzaro usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 28% of Ternana's recent games and 50% of Catanzaro's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Ternana and Catanzaro tend to score early?
Ternana have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Catanzaro in 94% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Ternana defy the odds to beat Catanzaro 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ternana beat Catanzaro 1-0 at Stadio Libero Liberati, Regular Season - 37, in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ternana 0.86 xG and Catanzaro 1.18 xG, a combined 2.04. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Catanzaro landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ternana attack 0.72 / defence 0.89 against Catanzaro attack 1.13 / defence 0.97, drawn from 74/36 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ternana 25% | Draw 34% | Catanzaro 41%, with Catanzaro to win its most likely call at 41%. Instead the game produced a Ternana win, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 62% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ternana 50%, Catanzaro 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ternana's trading profile (36 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.
Catanzaro's trading profile (36 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Catanzaro arrived the stronger side — 1.67 PPG against 1.03. Form was overturned, with Ternana winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Ternana (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.89 average — tighter than their form line. Catanzaro (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.39 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.