Cremonese 2-1 Pisa – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Cremonese at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Cremonese vs Pisa fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie B encounter, Regular Season - 36 sees Pisa travel to Stadio Giovanni Zini to take on Cremonese. The game is scheduled for Wednesday 1 May 2024, 11:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Cremonese stand at 4W 2D 4L from 10 Serie B matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L W L D L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters this season, Cremonese have posted 6W 2D 2L at Stadio Giovanni Zini — 2.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadio Giovanni Zini. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — Cremonese are significantly better at Stadio Giovanni Zini than their overall form suggests.
Pisa — All Games: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Serie B fixtures this season — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W L W D D. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.70. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
Pisa's form when playing away from home: 2W 3D 5L across 10 road games this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.90 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Cremonese 1.40 PPG, Pisa 1.50 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 3 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Cremonese, 1 for Pisa and 2 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The last 3 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.7 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 2 Dec 2023, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.7 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Cremonese trading profile (73 games, 36 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Pisa trading profile (73 games, 36 at away): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 59% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cremonese 49% versus Pisa 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cremonese 48% | Pisa 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cremonese 1.33 xG and Pisa 1.16 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cremonese attack 0.910 / defence 0.971 | Pisa attack 1.009 / defence 1.218. League average goals — home 1.198 / away 1.181. Pisa bring a strong defensive rating of 1.218 — this is suppressing Cremonese's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 35 Cremonese games / 73 Pisa games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cremonese 38% | Draw 32% | Pisa 30%. Fair-value odds: Cremonese 2.63 | Draw 3.12 | Pisa 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.49. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.49 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Cremonese as the most likely outcome at 38% — marginal model lean. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Cremonese offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.49 combined xG gives a 45% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by H2H averaging 1.7 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Cremonese 40% | Pisa 80% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cremonese vs Pisa | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 36 | Venue: Stadio Giovanni Zini • Kick-off: Wednesday 1 May 2024, 11:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cremonese 38% | Draw 32% | Pisa 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 53% | xG Cremonese 1.33 / Pisa 1.16 • Poisson strength factors: Cremonese attack 0.910 / def 0.971 | Pisa attack 1.009 / def 1.218 | league avg home 1.198 / away 1.181 • Poisson stance: Cremonese (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.33
Cremonese xG
Expected Goals
1.16
Pisa xG
53%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cremonese vs Pisa kick off?
Cremonese vs Pisa kicked off at 11:30 on Wednesday 1 May 2024 at Stadio Giovanni Zini.
What was the final score in Cremonese vs Pisa?
Cremonese 2 - 1 Pisa.
Where is Cremonese vs Pisa being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Giovanni Zini.
What competition is Cremonese vs Pisa part of?
Cremonese vs Pisa is a Regular Season - 36 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Cremonese vs Pisa?
Our statistical model gives Cremonese a 38% chance of winning, Pisa a 30% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Cremonese the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cremonese vs Pisa?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Cremonese and Pisa will score (BTTS).
Will Cremonese vs Pisa have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cremonese and Pisa?
Record (3 meetings): Cremonese 0W | Draws 2 | Pisa 1W.
What form are Cremonese and Pisa in?
Cremonese (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-L-D-L. Pisa (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-L-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Cremonese's attack at 0.91x the league average against Pisa's defence at 1.22x — combine the two and it projects 1.33 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Pisa's attack versus Cremonese's defence, projects 1.16 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 35/73 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (10.0%), 1-0 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Cremonese Win
38%
2.63
32%
3.12
30%
3.35
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.1%
Home win
0 – 1
9.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.33
Cremonese xG
Total xG
2.49
1.16
Pisa xG
2.63
38%
Home win
3.12
32%
Draw
3.35
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.89
47%
BTTS No
2.13
Clean Sheet
31%
3.18
26%
3.78
Win to Nil
12%
8.36
8%
12.66
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.3 | 9.6 | 5.6 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.1 | 12.8 | 7.4 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.4 | 8.5 | 4.9 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 3.8 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cremonese vs Pisa?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Cremonese and Pisa expected to score?
The model projects 1.33 expected goals for Cremonese and 1.16 for Pisa, a combined total of 2.49.
How confident is the prediction model for Cremonese vs Pisa?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Cremonese's recent record stands at 22W 21D 30L from 73 games, a 1.19 PPG return, with L-W-L-D-L in the last five.
Pisa, meanwhile, have gone 22W 26D 25L across 73 games — 1.26 PPG, with W-L-W-D-D in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Cremonese on 1.19 PPG, Pisa on 1.26. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Cremonese have managed 11W 9D 16L from 36 games — 1.17 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Pisa's away record stands at 9W 14D 13L across 36 trips, a 1.14 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Cremonese are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.36 conceded per game recently; Pisa are on 1.30 scored and 1.23 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Pisa in 62%.
Last 73 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cremonese
Current Season
Pisa
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cremonese and Pisa in coming into this match?
Cremonese have gone 22W 21D 30L in their last 73 games (1.19 PPG), while Pisa have gone 22W 26D 25L in their last 73 (1.26 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cremonese at home or Pisa away?
Cremonese's home record (1.17 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cremonese at home: 1.17 PPG; Pisa away: 1.14 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Cremonese and Pisa runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Serie B, Serie A all feature in the head-to-head log. The two were last together as recently as 10 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 13 Mar 2022, when Pisa won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Cremonese's record when hosting Pisa specifically: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Cremonese
2
Draws
4
Pisa
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cremonese and Pisa?
From 8 meetings on record, Cremonese have won 2, Pisa have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Cremonese and Pisa last play each other?
They last met on 10 May 2026, when Cremonese 3-0 Pisa.
Who has won more matches between Cremonese and Pisa?
Pisa have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Cremonese are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time.
Pisa see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cremonese 42%, Pisa 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Cremonese) and 39% (Pisa).
On the defensive side: Cremonese keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Pisa in 33%; Cremonese have failed to score in 33% of games; Pisa in 28%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cremonese home games / Pisa away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cremonese play Pisa?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 42% of Cremonese's recent matches and 56% of Pisa's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Cremonese vs Pisa usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Cremonese's recent games and 39% of Pisa's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Cremonese and Pisa tend to score early?
Cremonese have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Pisa in 56% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Cremonese edge out Pisa 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cremonese beat Pisa 2-1 at Stadio Giovanni Zini, Regular Season - 36, in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cremonese 1.33 xG and Pisa 1.16 xG, a combined 2.49. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cremonese attack 0.91 / defence 0.97 against Pisa attack 1.01 / defence 1.22, drawn from 35/73 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cremonese 38% | Draw 32% | Pisa 30%, with Cremonese to win its most likely call at 38%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cremonese 48%, Pisa 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cremonese's trading profile (73 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.
Pisa's trading profile (73 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Cremonese 1.19 PPG, Pisa 1.26 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Cremonese win broke the near-deadlock. Cremonese (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.