Palermo 2-1 Mantova – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Palermo at 68% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Palermo vs Mantova encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Palermo welcome Mantova to Stadio Renzo Barbera in Serie B (matchday 28). Kick-off is Wednesday 4 March 2026 at 19:00 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Palermo stand at 6W 3D 1L — 2.10 PPG. Last five: W D W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 0.80 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
At home, Palermo have gone 8W 1D 1L in their last 10 home games (2.50 PPG). They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 7 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (70%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Across their last 10 games, Mantova have recorded 3W 4D 3L — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W L L W D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Mantova have gone 2W 3D 5L in their last 10 away fixtures (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Palermo are in the better shape of the two on recent form — 0.80 PPG ahead (2.10 vs 1.30). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
On the goals front, neither side scores or concedes freely enough to make BTTS Yes the call. Palermo's 20% BTTS rate and Mantova's 30% (from Palermo's last 10 home games and Mantova's last 10 away games) are both low — BTTS No is the form-backed angle.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 3 H2H matches, Palermo have won 0, Mantova 0, with 3 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 3 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 11 Jan 2026, ended Palermo 1–1 Mantova — a draw.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Palermo in-play tendencies (last 65 games, 32 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 75% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; of the 12 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 42%; BTTS occurs in 34% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (home games).
Mantova in-play tendencies (last 65 games, 32 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 72% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; of the 12 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; of the 25 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 32%; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Palermo 51% versus Mantova 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Palermo 48% | Mantova 51%). Note also that Mantova surrender HT leads in 33% of cases while Palermo recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 42% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Palermo 1.95 xG and Mantova 0.60 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Palermo attack 1.388 / defence 0.701 | Mantova attack 0.751 / defence 1.097. League average goals — home 1.278 / away 1.146. Palermo carry an above-average attack rating of 1.388 — their 1.95 xG reflects attacking quality above the league norm. Mantova's attack rating of 0.751 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.60. Palermo have a tight defence (rating 0.701), which is pulling Mantova's projected output down. Data: built from Palermo's last 65 games and Mantova's last 65.
Result probabilities: Palermo 68% | Draw 22% | Mantova 10%. Fair-value odds: Palermo 1.46 | Draw 4.59 | Mantova 10.30. The model has a clear lean to Palermo (68%) — a 46pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS Yes probability 40% | Total xG 2.55. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.55 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS No at 60% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Palermo are the pick at 68% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.55 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 53% probability — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 60%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Palermo 20% (last 10 home games) | Mantova 30% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Palermo vs Mantova | Competition: Serie B, matchday 28 | Venue: Stadio Renzo Barbera • Kick-off: Wednesday 4 March 2026 at 19:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Palermo 68% | Draw 22% | Mantova 10% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% (Under 53%) | BTTS Yes 40% (No 60%) | xG Palermo 1.95 / Mantova 0.60 • Poisson strength factors: Palermo attack 1.388 / def 0.701 | Mantova attack 0.751 / def 1.097 | league avg home 1.278 / away 1.146 • Poisson stance: Palermo (68%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.95
Palermo xG
Expected Goals
0.60
Mantova xG
40%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Palermo vs Mantova FAQs
What time does Palermo vs Mantova kick off?
Palermo vs Mantova kicked off at 19:00 UK time on Wednesday 4 March 2026 at Stadio Renzo Barbera.
What was the final score in Palermo vs Mantova?
Palermo 2 - 1 Mantova.
Where is Palermo vs Mantova being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Renzo Barbera.
What competition is Palermo vs Mantova part of?
Palermo vs Mantova is a Serie B fixture (matchday 28) (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Palermo vs Mantova?
Our statistical model gives Palermo a 68% chance of winning, Mantova a 10% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Palermo the favourite.
Will both teams score in Palermo vs Mantova?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both Palermo and Mantova will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (60%).
Will Palermo vs Mantova have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (53%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Palermo's attack rating (1.39) and Mantova's defence rating (1.10), the model arrives at 1.95 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Mantova's attack versus Palermo's defence, projects 0.60 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Palermo's last 65 games and Mantova's last 65 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.8%. Close behind: 1-0 (14.0%), 1-1 (10.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Palermo Win
68%
1.46
22%
4.59
10%
10.30
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.2%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
14.8%
Home win
3 – 0
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.95
Palermo xG
Total xG
2.55
0.60
Mantova xG
1.46
68%
Home win
4.59
22%
Draw
10.30
10%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.52
60%
BTTS No
1.66
Clean Sheet
55%
1.83
14%
7.00
Win to Nil
37%
2.67
1%
72.10
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.8 | 4.7 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 1 | 15.2 | 9.2 | 2.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 14.8 | 8.9 | 2.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 9.6 | 5.8 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 4.7 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 1.8 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Palermo vs Mantova Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Palermo vs Mantova?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Palermo and Mantova expected to score?
The model projects 1.95 expected goals for Palermo and 0.60 for Mantova, a combined total of 2.55.
How confident is the prediction model for Palermo vs Mantova?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 68%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Palermo's recent record stands at 28W 19D 18L from 65 games, a 1.58 PPG return, with W-D-W-W-L in the last five.
Mantova, meanwhile, have gone 17W 20D 28L across 65 games — 1.09 PPG, with W-L-L-W-D in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Palermo by 0.49 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Mantova heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Palermo have managed 18W 7D 7L from their last 32 home games — 1.91 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Mantova's away record stands at 4W 10D 18L across their last 32 away games, a 0.69 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.09 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Mantova's recent record.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Palermo come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Palermo are averaging 1.51 goals scored and 0.98 conceded per game recently; Mantova are on 1.14 scored and 1.51 conceded.
Defensively: Palermo have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 65 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Palermo
Blended
Mantova
Blended
Palermo (Home) vs Mantova (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Palermo
Blended
Mantova
Blended
❓ Palermo vs Mantova Form FAQs
What form are Palermo and Mantova in coming into this match?
Palermo have gone 28W 19D 18L in their last 65 games (1.58 PPG), while Mantova have gone 17W 20D 28L in their last 65 (1.09 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Palermo at home or Mantova away?
Palermo's home record (1.91 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Palermo at home: 1.91 PPG; Mantova away: 0.69 PPG.
Have Palermo or Mantova been keeping clean sheets recently?
Palermo have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their recent games, Mantova in 18%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 5 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 1 year from October 2024. All of them came in Serie B. The most recent was as recently as 17 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear recent trend here: Palermo have taken the most recent 2 H2H results in our data.
Palermo's record when hosting Mantova specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 5 Meetings
2
Palermo
3
Draws
0
Mantova
Recent Meetings
❓ Palermo vs Mantova H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Palermo and Mantova?
Across the 5 head-to-head matches in our data, Palermo have won 2, Mantova have won 0, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Palermo and Mantova last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 17 October 2026: Mantova 0-2 Palermo.
Who has won more matches between Palermo and Mantova?
Palermo have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 5 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Palermo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 53% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Mantova are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 21% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Palermo 34%, Mantova 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 41% (Palermo) and 53% (Mantova).
On the defensive side: Palermo keep a clean sheet in 56% of their matches; Mantova in 41%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Palermo home games / Mantova away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Palermo vs Mantova Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Palermo and Mantova matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 34% of Palermo's recent matches and 56% of Mantova's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Palermo and Mantova matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 41% of Palermo's recent games and 53% of Mantova's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Palermo and Mantova matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 75% of Palermo's recent matches and 72% of Mantova's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Palermo edge out Mantova 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Palermo beat Mantova 2-1 at Stadio Renzo Barbera, Regular Season - 28, in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Palermo 1.95 xG and Mantova 0.60 xG, a combined 2.55. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Palermo attack 1.39 / defence 0.70 against Mantova attack 0.75 / defence 1.10, drawn from 65/65 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Palermo 68% | Draw 22% | Mantova 10%, with Palermo to win its most likely call at 68%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Palermo 48%, Mantova 51%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Palermo's trading profile (65 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.
Mantova's trading profile (65 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Palermo arrived the stronger side — 1.58 PPG against 1.09. The form guide was vindicated by the result.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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