Cosenza 1-2 Sampdoria – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Cosenza at 53%, yet other data sources diverge — this Cosenza vs Sampdoria fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie B encounter, Regular Season - 26 sees Sampdoria travel to Stadio San Vito-Luigi Marulla to take on Cosenza. The game is scheduled for Friday 23 February 2024, 19:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie B games this season, Cosenza have gone 3W 4D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.30 PPG return. Last five: W W D D W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Cosenza, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Cosenza at Stadio San Vito-Luigi Marulla this season: 3W 4D 3L from 10 home games — 1.30 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Sampdoria stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 Serie B matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L W D L D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.90. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Sampdoria, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sampdoria away from home this season: 3W 2D 5L from 10 away games — 1.10 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.30 PPG (Cosenza) versus 1.20 (Sampdoria). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Cosenza, 1 for Sampdoria and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 22 Oct 2023, ended 0–2 with Sampdoria winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Cosenza trading profile (63 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
Sampdoria trading profile (63 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cosenza 49% versus Sampdoria 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cosenza 36% | Sampdoria 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cosenza 1.95 xG and Sampdoria 1.25 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cosenza attack 1.085 / defence 1.022 | Sampdoria attack 1.000 / defence 1.323. League average goals — home 1.355 / away 1.221. Sampdoria bring a strong defensive rating of 1.323 — this is suppressing Cosenza's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 63 Cosenza games / 25 Sampdoria games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cosenza 53% | Draw 24% | Sampdoria 23%. Fair-value odds: Cosenza 1.89 | Draw 4.17 | Sampdoria 4.35. Cosenza hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.19. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.19 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.95 / 1.25) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Cosenza at 53% — moderate model lean. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Cosenza offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 3.19 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 62% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 62% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Cosenza 70% | Sampdoria 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cosenza vs Sampdoria | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Stadio San Vito-Luigi Marulla • Kick-off: Friday 23 Feb 2024, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cosenza 53% | Draw 24% | Sampdoria 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 62% | BTTS 62% | xG Cosenza 1.95 / Sampdoria 1.25 • Poisson strength factors: Cosenza attack 1.085 / def 1.022 | Sampdoria attack 1.000 / def 1.323 | league avg home 1.355 / away 1.221 • Poisson stance: Cosenza (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.95
Cosenza xG
Expected Goals
1.25
Sampdoria xG
62%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
62%
Over 2.5
40%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cosenza vs Sampdoria kick off?
Cosenza vs Sampdoria kicked off at 19:30 on Friday 23 February 2024 at Stadio San Vito-Luigi Marulla.
What was the final score in Cosenza vs Sampdoria?
Cosenza 1 - 2 Sampdoria.
Where is Cosenza vs Sampdoria being played?
The match is being played at Stadio San Vito-Luigi Marulla.
What competition is Cosenza vs Sampdoria part of?
Cosenza vs Sampdoria is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Cosenza vs Sampdoria?
Our statistical model gives Cosenza a 53% chance of winning, Sampdoria a 23% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Cosenza the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cosenza vs Sampdoria?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Cosenza and Sampdoria will score (BTTS).
Will Cosenza vs Sampdoria have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 62%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cosenza and Sampdoria?
Record (1 meetings): Cosenza 0W | Draws 0 | Sampdoria 1W.
What form are Cosenza and Sampdoria in?
Cosenza (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-D-D-W. Sampdoria (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-W-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Cosenza's attack rating (1.08) and Sampdoria's defence rating (1.32), the model arrives at 1.95 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Sampdoria's attack versus Cosenza's defence, projects 1.25 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 63/25 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.3%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 2-0 (7.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Cosenza Win
53%
1.90
24%
4.18
23%
4.27
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.0%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
1 – 0
8.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.95
Cosenza xG
Total xG
3.19
1.25
Sampdoria xG
1.90
53%
Home win
4.18
24%
Draw
4.27
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
62%
Over 2.5
1.61
38%
Under 2.5
2.63
40%
Over 3.5
2.50
60%
Under 3.5
1.67
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.61
38%
BTTS No
2.63
Clean Sheet
29%
3.48
14%
6.99
Win to Nil
15%
6.61
3%
29.89
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.1 | 5.1 | 3.2 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.0 | 10.0 | 6.2 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.8 | 9.7 | 6.0 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.0 | 6.3 | 3.9 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.4 | 3.1 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.0 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cosenza vs Sampdoria?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.3%.
How many goals are Cosenza and Sampdoria expected to score?
The model projects 1.95 expected goals for Cosenza and 1.25 for Sampdoria, a combined total of 3.19.
How confident is the prediction model for Cosenza vs Sampdoria?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Cosenza's recent record stands at 16W 22D 25L from 63 games, a 1.11 PPG return, with W-W-D-D-W in the last five. The sample for Cosenza is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Sampdoria, meanwhile, have gone 11W 16D 36L across 63 games — 0.78 PPG, with L-W-D-L-D in their last five. The sample for Sampdoria is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Cosenza on 1.11 PPG, Sampdoria on 0.78. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Cosenza have managed 11W 11D 9L from 31 games — 1.42 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Sampdoria's away record stands at 6W 6D 19L across 31 trips, a 0.77 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Cosenza come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Cosenza are averaging 0.92 goals scored and 1.27 conceded per game recently; Sampdoria are on 0.89 scored and 1.75 conceded.
Last 63 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cosenza
Blended
Sampdoria
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cosenza and Sampdoria in coming into this match?
Cosenza have gone 16W 22D 25L in their last 63 games (1.11 PPG), while Sampdoria have gone 11W 16D 36L in their last 63 (0.78 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cosenza at home or Sampdoria away?
Cosenza's home record (1.42 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cosenza at home: 1.42 PPG; Sampdoria away: 0.77 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Cosenza and Sampdoria runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 1 February 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Cosenza's record when hosting Sampdoria specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Cosenza
0
Draws
3
Sampdoria
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cosenza and Sampdoria?
From 4 meetings on record, Cosenza have won 1, Sampdoria have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Cosenza and Sampdoria last play each other?
They last met on 1 February 2025, when Sampdoria 1-0 Cosenza.
Who has won more matches between Cosenza and Sampdoria?
Sampdoria have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Cosenza are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Sampdoria are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cosenza 58%, Sampdoria 55% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 45% (Cosenza) and 52% (Sampdoria).
On the defensive side: Cosenza keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Sampdoria in 39%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cosenza home games / Sampdoria away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cosenza play Sampdoria?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 58% of Cosenza's games and 55% of Sampdoria's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Cosenza vs Sampdoria usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 45% of Cosenza's recent games and 52% of Sampdoria's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Cosenza and Sampdoria tend to score early?
Cosenza have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Sampdoria in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Sampdoria defy the odds to beat Cosenza 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sampdoria beat Cosenza 1-2 at Stadio San Vito-Luigi Marulla, Regular Season - 26, in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cosenza 1.95 xG and Sampdoria 1.25 xG, a combined 3.19. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Cosenza fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cosenza attack 1.08 / defence 1.02 against Sampdoria attack 1.00 / defence 1.32, drawn from 63/25 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cosenza 53% | Draw 24% | Sampdoria 23%, with Cosenza to win its most likely call at 53%. Instead the game produced a Sampdoria win, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cosenza 36%, Sampdoria 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cosenza's trading profile (63 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.
Sampdoria's trading profile (63 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Cosenza 1.11 PPG, Sampdoria 0.78 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Sampdoria win broke the near-deadlock. Cosenza (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.03 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Sampdoria (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.90 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 2.03 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.