Sudtirol 1-0 Bari – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Bari at 36%, yet other data sources diverge — this Sudtirol vs Bari fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadio Marco Druso plays host to Sudtirol versus Bari in Serie B, Regular Season - 26. Kick-off: Saturday 24 February 2024 at 13:00 UTC.
Form
Sudtirol (all games): 3W 2D 5L across 10 Serie B fixtures this term — 1.10 PPG. Last five: D L W L D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Sudtirol, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sudtirol's home record at Stadio Marco Druso: 2W 2D 6L from 10 Serie B appearances (0.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
Bari have collected 1.50 PPG across 10 Serie B outings this season: 4W 3D 3L. Last five: D L L W W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Bari, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Bari's away record: 1W 5D 4L from 10 road trips in Serie B this season (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.10 PPG for Sudtirol against 1.50 for Bari. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Sudtirol lead 1W to 2W over the last 3 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 3 previous contests averaged 1.7 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 9 Dec 2023, ended 1–2 with Bari winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.7 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Data
Sudtirol goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (66 games, 32 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 34% of games (home games).
Bari goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (66 games, 32 at away): they score before half-time in 66% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 34% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sudtirol 50% versus Bari 50%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Sudtirol 36% | Bari 36%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sudtirol 1.18 xG and Bari 1.23 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sudtirol attack 0.774 / defence 1.158 | Bari attack 0.862 / defence 1.126. League average goals — home 1.348 / away 1.227. Sudtirol's attack strength of 0.774 is below the league average — the 1.18 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 63 Sudtirol games / 63 Bari games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sudtirol 34% | Draw 30% | Bari 36%. Fair-value odds: Sudtirol 2.94 | Draw 3.33 | Bari 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.40. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.40 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Bari as the most likely outcome at 36% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Bari if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.40 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 43% — reasonable confidence, supported by H2H averaging 1.7 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 50% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Sudtirol 40% | Bari 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sudtirol vs Bari | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Stadio Marco Druso • Kick-off: Saturday 24 Feb 2024, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sudtirol 34% | Draw 30% | Bari 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 50% | xG Sudtirol 1.18 / Bari 1.23 • Poisson strength factors: Sudtirol attack 0.774 / def 1.158 | Bari attack 0.862 / def 1.126 | league avg home 1.348 / away 1.227 • Poisson stance: Bari (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.18
Sudtirol xG
Expected Goals
1.23
Bari xG
50%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sudtirol vs Bari kick off?
Sudtirol vs Bari kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 24 February 2024 at Stadio Marco Druso.
What was the final score in Sudtirol vs Bari?
Sudtirol 1 - 0 Bari.
Where is Sudtirol vs Bari being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Marco Druso.
What competition is Sudtirol vs Bari part of?
Sudtirol vs Bari is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Sudtirol vs Bari?
Our statistical model gives Sudtirol a 34% chance of winning, Bari a 36% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Bari the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sudtirol vs Bari?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Sudtirol and Bari will score (BTTS).
Will Sudtirol vs Bari have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sudtirol and Bari?
Record (3 meetings): Sudtirol 1W | Draws 0 | Bari 2W.
What form are Sudtirol and Bari in?
Sudtirol (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-L-W-L-D. Bari (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-L-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Sudtirol's attack rating (0.77) and Bari's defence rating (1.13), the model arrives at 1.18 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Bari's attack (0.86x) against Sudtirol's defence (1.16x) — and the away total comes out at 1.23.
These ratings are built from 63/63 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.8%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.8%), 0-1 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bari Win
34%
2.96
30%
3.33
36%
2.76
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.1%
Away win
1 – 0
10.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.18
Sudtirol xG
Total xG
2.40
1.23
Bari xG
2.96
34%
Home win
3.33
30%
Draw
2.76
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.00
50%
BTTS No
2.00
Clean Sheet
29%
3.40
31%
3.24
Win to Nil
10%
10.07
11%
8.95
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.1 | 11.1 | 6.8 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.7 | 13.1 | 8.0 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.3 | 7.7 | 4.7 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 3.0 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sudtirol vs Bari?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Sudtirol and Bari expected to score?
The model projects 1.18 expected goals for Sudtirol and 1.23 for Bari, a combined total of 2.40.
How confident is the prediction model for Sudtirol vs Bari?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 66 outings, Sudtirol have picked up 1.39 PPG on a 23W 23D 20L record — D-L-W-L-D across the most recent five. The sample for Sudtirol is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Bari's form line: 25W 26D 15L from 66 games, 1.53 PPG, last five D-L-L-W-W. The sample for Bari is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.39 PPG for Sudtirol against 1.53 for Bari. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Sudtirol have posted 1.44 PPG from 32 outings (11W 13D 8L).
On the road, Bari have gone 12W 11D 9L from 32 away games — 1.47 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Sudtirol are averaging 1.09 goals scored and 1.08 conceded per game recently; Bari are on 1.29 scored and 1.02 conceded.
Last 66 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sudtirol
Blended
Bari
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sudtirol and Bari in coming into this match?
Sudtirol have gone 23W 23D 20L in their last 66 games (1.39 PPG), while Bari have gone 25W 26D 15L in their last 66 (1.53 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sudtirol at home or Bari away?
Bari's away record (1.47 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sudtirol at home: 1.44 PPG; Bari away: 1.47 PPG.
Have Sudtirol or Bari been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sudtirol have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Bari in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since May 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. The two were last together as recently as 22 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Sudtirol have gone 2W 3D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Bari — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Sudtirol
4
Draws
2
Bari
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sudtirol and Bari?
From 10 meetings on record, Sudtirol have won 4, Bari have won 2, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Sudtirol and Bari last play each other?
They last met on 22 May 2026, when Sudtirol 0-0 Bari.
Who has won more matches between Sudtirol and Bari?
Sudtirol have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Sudtirol are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Bari are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sudtirol 53%, Bari 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 34% for Sudtirol and 34% for Bari.
On the defensive side: Sudtirol have failed to score in 28% of games; Bari in 28%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sudtirol home games / Bari away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sudtirol play Bari?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 53% of Sudtirol's recent matches and 50% of Bari's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Sudtirol vs Bari usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 34% of Sudtirol's recent games and 34% of Bari's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sudtirol and Bari tend to score early?
Sudtirol have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Bari in 66% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Sudtirol defy the odds to beat Bari 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sudtirol beat Bari 1-0 at Stadio Marco Druso, Regular Season - 26, in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sudtirol 1.18 xG and Bari 1.23 xG, a combined 2.40. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Bari landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sudtirol attack 0.77 / defence 1.16 against Bari attack 0.86 / defence 1.13, drawn from 63/63 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sudtirol 34% | Draw 30% | Bari 36%, with Bari to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual Sudtirol win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 70% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 36% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sudtirol 36%, Bari 36%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sudtirol's trading profile (66 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one.
Bari's trading profile (66 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Sudtirol 1.39 PPG, Bari 1.53 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Sudtirol win broke the near-deadlock. Sudtirol (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.03 average — tighter than their form line. Bari (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.22 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.