Lecco 1-3 Cosenza – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Cosenza at 36%, yet other data sources diverge — this Lecco vs Cosenza fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadio Rigamonti Ceppi plays host to Lecco versus Cosenza in Serie B, Regular Season - 25. Kick-off: Saturday 17 February 2024 at 13:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Lecco have collected 0.70 PPG across 10 Serie B outings this season: 2W 1D 7L. Last five: L L L L L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 2.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.50 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Lecco, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Lecco have posted 3W 1D 6L at Stadio Rigamonti Ceppi — 1.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
Cosenza (all games): 2W 4D 4L across 10 Serie B outings this term — 1.00 points per game. Last five: L W W D D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Cosenza, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Cosenza's away record: 3W 3D 4L from 10 road trips in Serie B this season (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 0.70 PPG for Lecco against 1.00 for Cosenza. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Lecco 0W, Cosenza 1W, 0D.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 1 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 7 Oct 2023, ended 0–3 with Cosenza winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Lecco half-time and goal-timing data (24 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
Cosenza half-time and goal-timing data (24 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 36% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 18% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 9% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Lecco 58% versus Cosenza 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lecco 58% | Cosenza 38%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lecco 0.90 xG and Cosenza 1.03 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lecco attack 0.829 / defence 1.335 | Cosenza attack 0.645 / defence 0.819. League average goals — home 1.325 / away 1.198. Data: 24 Lecco games / 62 Cosenza games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Lecco 29% | Draw 34% | Cosenza 36%. Fair-value odds: Lecco 3.45 | Draw 2.94 | Cosenza 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 30% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 1.93. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 70% probability — total xG of 1.93 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Cosenza are the pick at 36% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 34% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Cosenza if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 1.93 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 30% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 40% on No. Form rates corroborate: Lecco 50% | Cosenza 20% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lecco vs Cosenza | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Stadio Rigamonti Ceppi • Kick-off: Saturday 17 Feb 2024, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lecco 29% | Draw 34% | Cosenza 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 30% | BTTS 40% | xG Lecco 0.90 / Cosenza 1.03 • Poisson strength factors: Lecco attack 0.829 / def 1.335 | Cosenza attack 0.645 / def 0.819 | league avg home 1.325 / away 1.198 • Poisson stance: Cosenza (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.90
Lecco xG
Expected Goals
1.03
Cosenza xG
40%
BTTS
59%
Over 1.5
30%
Over 2.5
13%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Lecco vs Cosenza kick off?
Lecco vs Cosenza kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 17 February 2024 at Stadio Rigamonti Ceppi.
What was the final score in Lecco vs Cosenza?
Lecco 1 - 3 Cosenza.
Where is Lecco vs Cosenza being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Rigamonti Ceppi.
What competition is Lecco vs Cosenza part of?
Lecco vs Cosenza is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Lecco vs Cosenza?
Our statistical model gives Lecco a 29% chance of winning, Cosenza a 36% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making Cosenza the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lecco vs Cosenza?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both Lecco and Cosenza will score (BTTS).
Will Lecco vs Cosenza have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 30%.
What is the head-to-head record between Lecco and Cosenza?
Record (1 meetings): Lecco 0W | Draws 0 | Cosenza 1W.
What form are Lecco and Cosenza in?
Lecco (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 2.50 | L5 L-L-L-L-L. Cosenza (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Lecco's attack rating (0.83) and Cosenza's defence rating (0.82), the model arrives at 0.90 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Cosenza's attack (0.65x) against Lecco's defence (1.33x) — and the away total comes out at 1.03.
These ratings are built from 24/62 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 16.2%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.2%), 0-1 (13.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 45% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Cosenza Win
29%
3.40
34%
2.92
36%
2.75
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.9%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
14.5%
Draw
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.90
Lecco xG
Total xG
1.93
1.03
Cosenza xG
3.40
29%
Home win
2.92
34%
Draw
2.75
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
58%
Over 1.5
1.72
42%
Under 1.5
2.38
30%
Over 2.5
3.33
70%
Under 2.5
1.43
13%
Over 3.5
7.69
87%
Under 3.5
1.15
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.53
60%
BTTS No
1.66
Clean Sheet
36%
2.81
41%
2.46
Win to Nil
10%
9.56
15%
6.76
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.5 | 14.9 | 7.7 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.0 | 13.5 | 6.9 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 5.9 | 6.1 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Lecco vs Cosenza?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.2%.
How many goals are Lecco and Cosenza expected to score?
The model projects 0.90 expected goals for Lecco and 1.03 for Cosenza, a combined total of 1.93.
How confident is the prediction model for Lecco vs Cosenza?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 24 outings, Lecco have picked up 0.83 PPG on a 5W 5D 14L record — L-L-L-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Lecco is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Cosenza's form line: 7W 8D 9L from 24 games, 1.21 PPG, last five L-W-W-D-D. The sample for Cosenza is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.83 PPG for Lecco against 1.21 for Cosenza. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Lecco have posted 0.91 PPG from 11 outings (3W 1D 7L).
On the road, Cosenza have gone 3W 3D 5L from 11 away games — 1.09 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Lecco are averaging 1.08 goals scored and 1.92 conceded per game recently; Cosenza are on 1.08 scored and 1.08 conceded.
Last 24 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lecco
Blended
Cosenza
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Lecco and Cosenza in coming into this match?
Lecco have gone 5W 5D 14L in their last 24 games (0.83 PPG), while Cosenza have gone 7W 8D 9L in their last 24 (1.21 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lecco at home or Cosenza away?
Cosenza's away record (1.09 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lecco at home: 0.91 PPG; Cosenza away: 1.09 PPG.
Have Lecco or Cosenza been keeping clean sheets recently?
Lecco have kept a clean sheet in 17% of their recent games, Cosenza in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 17 February 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Lecco
0
Draws
2
Cosenza
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Lecco and Cosenza?
From 2 meetings on record, Lecco have won 0, Cosenza have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Lecco and Cosenza last play each other?
They last met on 17 February 2024, when Lecco 1-3 Cosenza.
Who has won more matches between Lecco and Cosenza?
Cosenza have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Lecco see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches.
Cosenza see a goal before the break in 36% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Lecco 54%, Cosenza 18% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 54% for Lecco and 9% for Cosenza.
On the defensive side: Cosenza in 36%; Lecco have failed to score in 36% of games; Cosenza in 64%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lecco home games / Cosenza away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Lecco play Cosenza?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of Lecco's recent matches and 18% of Cosenza's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Lecco vs Cosenza usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 54% of Lecco's recent games and 9% of Cosenza's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Cosenza cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Lecco.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cosenza beat Lecco 1-3 at Stadio Rigamonti Ceppi, Regular Season - 25, in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lecco 0.90 xG and Cosenza 1.03 xG, a combined 1.93. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Cosenza outscored their 1.03 projection by 2.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lecco attack 0.83 / defence 1.33 against Cosenza attack 0.65 / defence 0.82, drawn from 24/62 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lecco 29% | Draw 34% | Cosenza 36%, with Cosenza to win its most likely call at 36%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 30%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 59% and landed. Over 3.5 was 13% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lecco 58%, Cosenza 38%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lecco's trading profile (24 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Cosenza's trading profile (24 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Lecco 0.83 PPG, Cosenza 1.21 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Cosenza win broke the near-deadlock. Lecco (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.82 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Cosenza (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.45 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.