Monza 3-0 Palermo – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Monza at 41% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Monza face Palermo.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Monza welcome Palermo to Brianteo in Serie B (matchday 30). Kick-off is Saturday 14 March 2026 at 16:15 UK time.
Form Guide
Monza — last 10 games: 7W 2D 1L, averaging 2.30 points per game. Last five: W W W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Monza at home: 8W 2D 0L from their last 10 home games — 2.60 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Palermo stand at 7W 2D 1L — 2.30 PPG. Last five: W W L W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
When travelling, Palermo have posted 3W 5D 2L from their last 10 away outings — 1.40 PPG. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.40 is notably below their overall 2.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
The form comparison is too close to call — 2.30 PPG (Monza) versus 2.30 (Palermo). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Both teams have scored in 60% of Monza's games and 60% of Palermo's (from Monza's last 10 home games and Palermo's last 10 away games) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 1 H2H match, Monza have won 1, Palermo 0, with 0 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 1 H2H match in our data have been high-scoring — 3.0 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 28 Oct 2025, ended Monza 3–0 Palermo — a Monza win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Monza trading profile (last 67 games, 33 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; of the 14 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 29%; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
Palermo trading profile (last 67 games, 33 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 79% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; they lead at the break 46% of the time; of the 12 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 42%; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Monza 52% versus Palermo 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Monza 49% | Palermo 48%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Monza surrender their half-time lead 29% of the time, while Palermo have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 42% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Monza 1.41 xG and Palermo 1.18 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Monza attack 1.168 / defence 0.911 | Palermo attack 1.144 / defence 0.901. League average goals — home 1.337 / away 1.136. Data: built from Monza's last 29 games and Palermo's last 67.
Result probabilities: Monza 41% | Draw 28% | Palermo 31%. Fair-value odds: Monza 2.42 | Draw 3.60 | Palermo 3.24. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS Yes probability 53% | Total xG 2.59. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.59 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 53% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Monza as the most likely outcome at 41% — marginal model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Monza offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.59 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 52% probability — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 53%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Monza 60% (last 10 home games) | Palermo 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Monza vs Palermo | Competition: Serie B, matchday 30 | Venue: Brianteo • Kick-off: Saturday 14 March 2026 at 16:15 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Monza 41% | Draw 28% | Palermo 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% (Under 52%) | BTTS Yes 53% (No 47%) | xG Monza 1.41 / Palermo 1.18 • Poisson strength factors: Monza attack 1.168 / def 0.911 | Palermo attack 1.144 / def 0.901 | league avg home 1.337 / away 1.136 • Poisson stance: Monza (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.41
Monza xG
Expected Goals
1.18
Palermo xG
53%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Monza vs Palermo FAQs
What time does Monza vs Palermo kick off?
Monza vs Palermo kicked off at 16:15 UK time on Saturday 14 March 2026 at Brianteo.
What was the final score in Monza vs Palermo?
Monza 3 - 0 Palermo.
Where is Monza vs Palermo being played?
The match is being played at Brianteo.
What competition is Monza vs Palermo part of?
Monza vs Palermo is a Serie B fixture (matchday 30) (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Monza vs Palermo?
Our statistical model gives Monza a 41% chance of winning, Palermo a 31% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Monza the favourite.
Will both teams score in Monza vs Palermo?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Monza and Palermo will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Monza vs Palermo have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (52%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Monza's attacking strength (1.17x league average) is weighed against Palermo's defensive record (0.90x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.41. The same calculation in reverse, Palermo's attack versus Monza's defence, projects 1.18 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Monza's last 29 games and Palermo's last 67 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.1%), 1-0 (8.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Monza Win
41%
2.42
28%
3.60
31%
3.24
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.5%
Home win
0 – 1
8.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.41
Monza xG
Total xG
2.59
1.18
Palermo xG
2.42
41%
Home win
3.60
28%
Draw
3.24
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.88
47%
BTTS No
2.13
Clean Sheet
31%
3.27
24%
4.08
Win to Nil
13%
7.90
8%
13.22
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.5 | 8.9 | 5.3 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.5 | 12.5 | 7.4 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.4 | 8.8 | 5.2 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.5 | 4.1 | 2.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Monza vs Palermo Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Monza vs Palermo?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Monza and Palermo expected to score?
The model projects 1.41 expected goals for Monza and 1.18 for Palermo, a combined total of 2.59.
How confident is the prediction model for Monza vs Palermo?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 67 outings, Monza have picked up 1.16 PPG on a 21W 15D 31L record — W-W-W-W-L across the most recent five.
Palermo's form line: 30W 19D 18L from 67 games, 1.63 PPG, last five W-W-L-W-W.
Put side by side, Palermo are the form team by 0.47 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Monza.
Venue Form
On home soil, Monza have posted 1.30 PPG from their last 33 home games (12W 7D 14L).
On the road, Palermo have gone 11W 11D 11L from their last 33 away games — 1.33 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Monza are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game recently; Palermo are on 1.51 scored and 0.97 conceded.
Defensively: Palermo in 37% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 67 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Monza
Current Season
Palermo
Current Season
Monza (Home) vs Palermo (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Monza
Current Season
Palermo
Current Season
❓ Monza vs Palermo Form FAQs
What form are Monza and Palermo in coming into this match?
Monza have gone 21W 15D 31L in their last 67 games (1.16 PPG), while Palermo have gone 30W 19D 18L in their last 67 (1.63 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Monza at home or Palermo away?
Palermo's away record (1.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Monza at home: 1.30 PPG; Palermo away: 1.33 PPG.
Have Monza or Palermo been keeping clean sheets recently?
Monza have kept a clean sheet in 21% of their recent games, Palermo in 37%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 2 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 1 year from October 2025. All of them came in Serie B. The most recent was on 14 March 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
2
Monza
0
Draws
0
Palermo
Recent Meetings
❓ Monza vs Palermo H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Monza and Palermo?
Across the 2 head-to-head matches in our data, Monza have won 2, Palermo have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Monza and Palermo last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 14 March 2026: Monza 3-0 Palermo.
Who has won more matches between Monza and Palermo?
Monza have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 2 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Monza are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Palermo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 31% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 43% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Monza 54%, Palermo 64% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Monza) and 54% (Palermo).
On the defensive side: Monza have failed to score in 27% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Monza home games / Palermo away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Monza vs Palermo Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Monza and Palermo matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 54% of Monza's games and 64% of Palermo's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Monza and Palermo matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of Monza's recent games and 54% of Palermo's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Monza and Palermo matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 67% of Monza's recent matches and 79% of Palermo's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Monza run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Palermo.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Monza beat Palermo 3-0 at Brianteo, Regular Season - 30, in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Monza 1.41 xG and Palermo 1.18 xG, a combined 2.59. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Monza beat their projection by 1.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Palermo landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Monza attack 1.17 / defence 0.91 against Palermo attack 1.14 / defence 0.90, drawn from 29/67 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Monza 41% | Draw 28% | Palermo 31%, with Monza to win its most likely call at 41%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Monza 49%, Palermo 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Monza's trading profile (67 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not.
Palermo's trading profile (67 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Palermo arrived the stronger side — 1.63 PPG against 1.16. Form was overturned, with Monza winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Monza (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.15 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.21 average — tighter than their form line. Palermo (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.39 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.15 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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