Spal 2-3 Modena – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Spal at 49%, yet other data sources diverge — this Spal vs Modena fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Spal and Modena meet at Stadio Paolo Mazza in Serie B, Regular Season - 15. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 4 December 2022 at 11:30 UTC.
Current Form
Spal's overall Serie B record this term: 2W 4D 4L from 10 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: W D D L L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Spal, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Spal's form when playing at home: 4W 3D 3L across 10 games at Stadio Paolo Mazza this term (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Spal are significantly better at Stadio Paolo Mazza than their overall form suggests.
Modena have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Serie B outings this season: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: L L D D W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Modena, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Modena have gone 2W 1D 4L from 7 away fixtures this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.43 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 57% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.00 PPG for Spal against 1.40 for Modena. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Trading Data
Spal goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (14 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 33% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
Modena goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (14 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in away games; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Spal 43% versus Modena 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Spal 36% | Modena 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Spal 1.63 xG and Modena 1.06 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Spal attack 1.142 / defence 1.050 | Modena attack 0.913 / defence 1.136. League average goals — home 1.254 / away 1.103. Data: 52 Spal games / 14 Modena games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Spal 49% | Draw 28% | Modena 23%. Fair-value odds: Spal 2.04 | Draw 3.57 | Modena 4.35. Spal hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.68. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.68 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Spal at 49% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Spal if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.68 combined xG gives a 50% probability to Over 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 54%. Form rates are neutral: Spal 50% | Modena 57%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Spal vs Modena | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Stadio Paolo Mazza • Kick-off: Sunday 4 Dec 2022, 11:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Spal 49% | Draw 28% | Modena 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 54% | xG Spal 1.63 / Modena 1.06 • Poisson strength factors: Spal attack 1.142 / def 1.050 | Modena attack 0.913 / def 1.136 | league avg home 1.254 / away 1.103 • Poisson stance: Spal (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.63
Spal xG
Expected Goals
1.06
Modena xG
54%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Spal vs Modena kick off?
Spal vs Modena kicked off at 11:30 on Sunday 4 December 2022 at Stadio Paolo Mazza.
What was the final score in Spal vs Modena?
Spal 2 - 3 Modena.
Where is Spal vs Modena being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Paolo Mazza.
What competition is Spal vs Modena part of?
Spal vs Modena is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Spal vs Modena?
Our statistical model gives Spal a 49% chance of winning, Modena a 23% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Spal the favourite.
Will both teams score in Spal vs Modena?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Spal and Modena will score (BTTS).
Will Spal vs Modena have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Spal and Modena?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Spal and Modena in?
Spal (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-D-D-L-L. Modena (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-L-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Spal's attacking strength (1.14x league average) is weighed against Modena's defensive record (1.14x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.63. Flip it around — Modena's attack (0.91x) against Spal's defence (1.05x) — and the away total comes out at 1.06.
These ratings are built from 52/14 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.3%. Close behind: 1-0 (9.6%), 2-1 (9.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Spal Win
49%
2.03
28%
3.62
23%
4.31
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.1%
Home win
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.63
Spal xG
Total xG
2.68
1.06
Modena xG
2.03
49%
Home win
3.62
28%
Draw
4.31
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.85
46%
BTTS No
2.17
Clean Sheet
35%
2.88
20%
5.09
Win to Nil
17%
5.85
5%
21.93
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.8 | 7.2 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.1 | 11.7 | 6.2 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.0 | 9.6 | 5.0 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.9 | 5.2 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.0 | 2.1 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Spal vs Modena?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are Spal and Modena expected to score?
The model projects 1.63 expected goals for Spal and 1.06 for Modena, a combined total of 2.68.
How confident is the prediction model for Spal vs Modena?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 14 outings, Spal have picked up 1.07 PPG on a 3W 6D 5L record — W-D-D-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Spal is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Modena's form line: 5W 2D 7L from 14 games, 1.21 PPG, last five L-L-D-D-W. The sample for Modena is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.07 PPG for Spal against 1.21 for Modena. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Spal have posted 1.43 PPG from 7 outings (3W 1D 3L).
On the road, Modena have gone 2W 1D 4L from 7 away games — 1.00 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Spal come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Spal are averaging 1.21 goals scored and 1.29 conceded per game recently; Modena are on 1.36 scored and 1.36 conceded.
Defensively: Spal have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 14 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Spal
Blended
Modena
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Spal and Modena in coming into this match?
Spal have gone 3W 6D 5L in their last 14 games (1.07 PPG), while Modena have gone 5W 2D 7L in their last 14 (1.21 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Spal at home or Modena away?
Spal's home record (1.43 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Spal at home: 1.43 PPG; Modena away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Spal or Modena been keeping clean sheets recently?
Spal have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, Modena in 14%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 22 April 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Spal
1
Draws
1
Modena
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Spal and Modena?
From 2 meetings on record, Spal have won 0, Modena have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Spal and Modena last play each other?
They last met on 22 April 2023, when Modena 0-0 Spal.
Who has won more matches between Spal and Modena?
Modena have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Spal are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 71% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 29% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Modena are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Spal 43%, Modena 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (Spal) and 57% (Modena).
On the defensive side: Spal keep a clean sheet in 43% of their matches; Modena in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Spal home games / Modena away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Spal play Modena?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 43% of Spal's recent matches and 57% of Modena's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Spal vs Modena usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of Spal's recent games and 57% of Modena's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Spal and Modena tend to score early?
Spal have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Modena in 86% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Modena defy the odds to beat Spal 2-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Modena beat Spal 2-3 at Stadio Paolo Mazza, Regular Season - 15, in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Spal 1.63 xG and Modena 1.06 xG, a combined 2.68. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Modena outscored their 1.06 projection by 1.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Spal attack 1.14 / defence 1.05 against Modena attack 0.91 / defence 1.14, drawn from 52/14 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Spal 49% | Draw 28% | Modena 23%, with Spal to win its most likely call at 49%. Instead the game produced a Modena win, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. Over 3.5 was 28% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Spal 36%, Modena 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Spal's trading profile (14 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Modena's trading profile (14 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Spal 1.07 PPG, Modena 1.21 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Modena win broke the near-deadlock. Spal (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.14 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Modena (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.