Modena 3-0 Spezia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Modena at 38% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Modena face Spezia.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Modena and Spezia meet at Stadio Alberto Braglia in Serie B (matchday 30). This fixture gets under way on Friday 13 March 2026 at 19:30 UK time.
Form
Modena (all games): 4W 3D 3L across their last 10 — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W W L L D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 0.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
Modena at home: 2W 3D 5L from their last 10 home games — 0.90 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.90 lags behind their overall 1.50 — home advantage has not translated into better results recently.
Spezia have collected 1.20 PPG across their last 10 games: 3W 3D 4L. Last five: L W L D W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
When travelling, Spezia have posted 2W 2D 6L from their last 10 away outings — 0.80 PPG. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.50 vs 1.20 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Head-to-Head
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 5 H2H matches in our data, the wins are level at 1 apiece, with 3 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage.
The 5 H2H matches in our data have been tight, averaging just 1.4 goals per game — a meaningful input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent of those, on 13 Dec 2025, ended Modena 2–0 Spezia — a Modena win.
With a balanced win record and just 1.4 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
Trading Data
Modena goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 67 games, 33 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 59% of the time; of the 24 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; of the 19 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 32%; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games).
Spezia goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 67 games, 33 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; of the 17 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 35%; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Modena 55% versus Spezia 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Modena 48% | Spezia 39%). Note also that Spezia surrender HT leads in 35% of cases while Modena recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 32% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Modena 1.14 xG and Spezia 1.01 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Modena attack 0.833 / defence 0.935 | Spezia attack 0.959 / defence 1.049. League average goals — home 1.308 / away 1.127. Data: built from Modena's last 67 games and Spezia's last 67.
Result probabilities: Modena 38% | Draw 31% | Spezia 31%. Fair-value odds: Modena 2.63 | Draw 3.25 | Spezia 3.20. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS Yes probability 44% | Total xG 2.15. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.15 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 56% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Modena are the pick at 38% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Modena if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.15 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 64% probability — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Modena's last 10 home games and Spezia's last 10 away games) averaging 2.2 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 1.4 goals per game across 5 H2H matches.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 56% on No. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Modena 50% (last 10 home games) | Spezia 50% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Modena vs Spezia | Competition: Serie B, matchday 30 | Venue: Stadio Alberto Braglia • Kick-off: Friday 13 March 2026 at 19:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Modena 38% | Draw 31% | Spezia 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% (Under 64%) | BTTS Yes 44% (No 56%) | xG Modena 1.14 / Spezia 1.01 • Poisson strength factors: Modena attack 0.833 / def 0.935 | Spezia attack 0.959 / def 1.049 | league avg home 1.308 / away 1.127 • Poisson stance: Modena (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.14
Modena xG
Expected Goals
1.01
Spezia xG
44%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Modena vs Spezia FAQs
What time does Modena vs Spezia kick off?
Modena vs Spezia kicked off at 19:30 UK time on Friday 13 March 2026 at Stadio Alberto Braglia.
What was the final score in Modena vs Spezia?
Modena 3 - 0 Spezia.
Where is Modena vs Spezia being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Alberto Braglia.
What competition is Modena vs Spezia part of?
Modena vs Spezia is a Serie B fixture (matchday 30) (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Modena vs Spezia?
Our statistical model gives Modena a 38% chance of winning, Spezia a 31% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Modena the favourite.
Will both teams score in Modena vs Spezia?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Modena and Spezia will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (56%).
Will Modena vs Spezia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (64%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Modena's attacking strength (0.83x league average) is weighed against Spezia's defensive record (1.05x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.14. Flip it around — Spezia's attack (0.96x) against Modena's defence (0.94x) — and the away total comes out at 1.01.
These ratings are built from Modena's last 67 games and Spezia's last 67 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.4%), 1-0 (11.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Modena Win
38%
2.63
31%
3.25
31%
3.20
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
13.3%
Home win
0 – 1
11.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.14
Modena xG
Total xG
2.15
1.01
Spezia xG
2.63
38%
Home win
3.25
31%
Draw
3.20
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.27
56%
BTTS No
1.78
Clean Sheet
36%
2.75
32%
3.13
Win to Nil
14%
7.23
10%
10.03
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.6 | 11.7 | 5.9 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.3 | 13.4 | 6.8 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.6 | 7.7 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 2.9 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Modena vs Spezia Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Modena vs Spezia?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Modena and Spezia expected to score?
The model projects 1.14 expected goals for Modena and 1.01 for Spezia, a combined total of 2.15.
How confident is the prediction model for Modena vs Spezia?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 67 outings, Modena have picked up 1.33 PPG on a 22W 23D 22L record — W-W-L-L-D across the most recent five.
Spezia's form line: 24W 22D 21L from 67 games, 1.40 PPG, last five L-W-L-D-W.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.33 PPG for Modena against 1.40 for Spezia. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Modena have posted 1.36 PPG from their last 33 home games (11W 12D 10L).
On the road, Spezia have gone 9W 14D 10L from their last 33 away games — 1.24 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Modena are averaging 1.27 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game recently; Spezia are on 1.31 scored and 1.07 conceded.
Last 67 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Modena
Current Season
Spezia
Current Season
Modena (Home) vs Spezia (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Modena
Current Season
Spezia
Current Season
❓ Modena vs Spezia Form FAQs
What form are Modena and Spezia in coming into this match?
Modena have gone 22W 23D 22L in their last 67 games (1.33 PPG), while Spezia have gone 24W 22D 21L in their last 67 (1.40 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Modena at home or Spezia away?
Modena's home record (1.36 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Modena at home: 1.36 PPG; Spezia away: 1.24 PPG.
Have Modena or Spezia been keeping clean sheets recently?
Modena have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Spezia in 34%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 6 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to December 2023 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Serie B. The most recent was on 13 March 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Modena have won each of the latest 2 H2H matches we hold, a run that gives them the edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Modena won Modena 3-0 Spezia on 13 Mar 2026, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Modena have gone 1W 2D 0L from the 3 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Spezia — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Modena
3
Draws
1
Spezia
Recent Meetings
❓ Modena vs Spezia H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Modena and Spezia?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Modena have won 2, Spezia have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Modena and Spezia last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 13 March 2026: Modena 3-0 Spezia.
Who has won more matches between Modena and Spezia?
Modena have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Modena are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 42% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 43% of those situations.
Spezia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 29% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Modena 61%, Spezia 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Modena) and 33% (Spezia).
On the defensive side: Modena keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Spezia in 39%; Spezia in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Modena home games / Spezia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Modena vs Spezia Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Modena and Spezia matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 61% of Modena's recent matches and 42% of Spezia's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Modena and Spezia matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 54% of Modena's recent games and 33% of Spezia's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Modena and Spezia matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 67% of Modena's recent matches and 67% of Spezia's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Modena run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Spezia.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Modena beat Spezia 3-0 at Stadio Alberto Braglia, Regular Season - 30, in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Modena 1.14 xG and Spezia 1.01 xG, a combined 2.15. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Modena beat their projection by 1.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Spezia landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Modena attack 0.83 / defence 0.94 against Spezia attack 0.96 / defence 1.05, drawn from 67/67 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Modena 38% | Draw 31% | Spezia 31%, with Modena to win its most likely call at 38%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Modena 48%, Spezia 39%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Modena's trading profile (67 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not.
Spezia's trading profile (67 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Modena 1.33 PPG, Spezia 1.40 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Modena win broke the near-deadlock. Modena (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.36 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.09 average — tighter than their form line. Spezia (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.15 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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