Modena 2-1 Reggiana – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Modena at 55% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Modena face Reggiana.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Reggiana travel to Stadio Alberto Braglia to take on Modena in Serie B (matchday 37). The game is scheduled for Friday 1 May 2026 at 15:00 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Modena stand at 2W 3D 5L — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L D D L L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters, Modena have posted 3W 2D 5L from their last 10 home games — 1.10 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Reggiana — last 10 games: 2W 2D 6L — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L L W L D. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
Reggiana's away record over their last 10 away games: 1W 1D 8L (0.40 PPG). Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Modena at 0.90 PPG versus Reggiana's 0.80. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H
The H2H picture is flat: the 5 H2H matches we hold have produced 2 wins for Modena, 3 for Reggiana and 0 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here.
The 5 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 28 Oct 2025, ended Modena 0–1 Reggiana — a Reggiana win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Modena in-play tendencies (last 74 games, 37 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 70% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 59% of the time; of the 28 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 36%; of the 22 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 32%; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games).
Reggiana in-play tendencies (last 74 games, 37 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 70% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 63% of the time; of the 16 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 31%; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Modena 57% versus Reggiana 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Modena 50% | Reggiana 47%). Note also that Reggiana surrender HT leads in 31% of cases while Modena recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 32% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Modena 1.53 xG and Reggiana 0.72 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Modena attack 0.947 / defence 0.959 | Reggiana attack 0.692 / defence 1.175. League average goals — home 1.377 / away 1.084. Reggiana's attack rating of 0.692 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.72. Data: built from Modena's last 74 games and Reggiana's last 74.
Result probabilities: Modena 55% | Draw 30% | Reggiana 15%. Fair-value odds: Modena 1.83 | Draw 3.32 | Reggiana 6.55. The model has a clear lean to Modena (55%) — a 25pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS Yes probability 42% | Total xG 2.25. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.25 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 58% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Modena as the most likely outcome at 55% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 30% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.25 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 61% probability — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 58%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Modena 60% (last 10 home games) | Reggiana 40% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Modena vs Reggiana | Competition: Serie B, matchday 37 | Venue: Stadio Alberto Braglia • Kick-off: Friday 1 May 2026 at 15:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Modena 55% | Draw 30% | Reggiana 15% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% (Under 61%) | BTTS Yes 42% (No 58%) | xG Modena 1.53 / Reggiana 0.72 • Poisson strength factors: Modena attack 0.947 / def 0.959 | Reggiana attack 0.692 / def 1.175 | league avg home 1.377 / away 1.084 • Poisson stance: Modena (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.53
Modena xG
Expected Goals
0.72
Reggiana xG
42%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Modena vs Reggiana FAQs
What time does Modena vs Reggiana kick off?
Modena vs Reggiana kicked off at 15:00 UK time on Friday 1 May 2026 at Stadio Alberto Braglia.
What was the final score in Modena vs Reggiana?
Modena 2 - 1 Reggiana.
Where is Modena vs Reggiana being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Alberto Braglia.
What competition is Modena vs Reggiana part of?
Modena vs Reggiana is a Serie B fixture (matchday 37) (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Modena vs Reggiana?
Our statistical model gives Modena a 55% chance of winning, Reggiana a 15% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Modena the favourite.
Will both teams score in Modena vs Reggiana?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Modena and Reggiana will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (58%).
Will Modena vs Reggiana have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (61%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Modena's attacking strength (0.95x league average) is weighed against Reggiana's defensive record (1.18x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.53. The same calculation in reverse, Reggiana's attack versus Modena's defence, projects 0.72 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Modena's last 74 games and Reggiana's last 74 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-0, at 14.6%. Close behind: 1-1 (13.1%), 2-0 (12.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Modena Win
55%
1.83
30%
3.32
15%
6.55
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.1%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
12.4%
Home win
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.53
Modena xG
Total xG
2.25
0.72
Reggiana xG
1.83
55%
Home win
3.32
30%
Draw
6.55
15%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.36
58%
BTTS No
1.74
Clean Sheet
49%
2.05
22%
4.63
Win to Nil
27%
3.76
3%
30.30
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.5 | 7.6 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 16.1 | 11.6 | 4.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 12.4 | 8.9 | 3.2 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 6.3 | 4.5 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.4 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Modena vs Reggiana Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Modena vs Reggiana?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Modena and Reggiana expected to score?
The model projects 1.53 expected goals for Modena and 0.72 for Reggiana, a combined total of 2.25.
How confident is the prediction model for Modena vs Reggiana?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Modena come into this having played 74 games, going 24W 25D 25L for 1.31 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-D-L-L.
On the other side, Reggiana sit at 1.05 PPG from 74 outings (19W 21D 34L), a run that reads L-L-W-L-D across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Modena on 1.31 PPG, Reggiana on 1.05. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Modena's home form reads 14W 12D 11L across their last 37 home games, a 1.46 PPG return.
Away from home, Reggiana have taken 0.86 points per game from their last 37 away games (8W 8D 21L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Modena come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Modena are averaging 1.28 goals scored and 1.14 conceded per game recently; Reggiana are on 1.03 scored and 1.43 conceded.
Last 74 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Modena
Current Season
Reggiana
Current Season
Modena (Home) vs Reggiana (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Modena
Current Season
Reggiana
Current Season
❓ Modena vs Reggiana Form FAQs
What form are Modena and Reggiana in coming into this match?
Modena have gone 24W 25D 25L in their last 74 games (1.31 PPG), while Reggiana have gone 19W 21D 34L in their last 74 (1.05 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Modena at home or Reggiana away?
Modena's home record (1.46 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Modena at home: 1.46 PPG; Reggiana away: 0.86 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 6 H2H matches in our data, going back to December 2023. All of them came in Serie B. The most recent was on 1 May 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Modena's record when hosting Reggiana specifically: 2W 0D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Modena
0
Draws
3
Reggiana
Recent Meetings
❓ Modena vs Reggiana H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Modena and Reggiana?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Modena have won 3, Reggiana have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Modena and Reggiana last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 1 May 2026: Modena 2-1 Reggiana.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Modena are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 40% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 43% of those situations.
Reggiana are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Modena 62%, Reggiana 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (Modena) and 46% (Reggiana).
On the defensive side: Modena keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Reggiana in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Modena home games / Reggiana away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Modena vs Reggiana Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Modena and Reggiana matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of Modena's games and 54% of Reggiana's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Modena and Reggiana matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 60% of Modena's recent games and 46% of Reggiana's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Modena and Reggiana matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 70% of Modena's recent matches and 70% of Reggiana's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Modena edge out Reggiana 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Modena beat Reggiana 2-1 at Stadio Alberto Braglia, Regular Season - 37, in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Modena 1.53 xG and Reggiana 0.72 xG, a combined 2.25. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Modena attack 0.95 / defence 0.96 against Reggiana attack 0.69 / defence 1.18, drawn from 74/74 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Modena 55% | Draw 30% | Reggiana 15%, with Modena to win its most likely call at 55%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Modena 50%, Reggiana 47%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Modena's trading profile (74 games, 37 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Reggiana's trading profile (74 games, 37 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Modena 1.31 PPG, Reggiana 1.05 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Modena win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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