Reggiana 1-1 Palermo – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Palermo at 44% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Reggiana vs Palermo encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Palermo make the trip to MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore to face Reggiana in Serie B, Regular Season - 36. The match kicks off on Saturday 25 April 2026 at 14:00 UTC.
Form
Reggiana (all games): 2W 2D 6L across 10 Serie B fixtures this term — 0.80 PPG. Last five: D L L W L. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
Reggiana's form when playing at home: 2W 3D 5L across 10 games at MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore this term (0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Palermo have collected 2.00 PPG across 10 Serie B outings this season: 6W 2D 2L. Last five: D W W D W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 0.90. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
Palermo's form when playing away from home: 3W 5D 2L across 10 road games this term (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 1.40 is notably below their overall 2.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Palermo are 1.20 PPG clear of Reggiana in recent Serie B fixtures (2.00 vs 0.80). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 5 head-to-head meetings have produced 2 wins for Reggiana, 3 for Palermo and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.0 goals per game across 5 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 23 Aug 2025, ended 1–2 with Palermo winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Reggiana — key trading statistics (73 games, 36 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 63% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Palermo — key trading statistics (73 games, 36 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; they lead at the break 45% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Reggiana 55% versus Palermo 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Reggiana 48% | Palermo 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Reggiana 0.95 xG and Palermo 1.33 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Reggiana attack 0.761 / defence 1.165 | Palermo attack 1.041 / defence 0.892. League average goals — home 1.394 / away 1.100. Reggiana's attack strength of 0.761 is below the league average — the 0.95 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 73 Reggiana games / 73 Palermo games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Reggiana 24% | Draw 32% | Palermo 44%. Fair-value odds: Reggiana 4.17 | Draw 3.12 | Palermo 2.27. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.28. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.28 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Palermo at 44% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Palermo if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.28 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 40% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 47% on No. Form rates are neutral: Reggiana 60% | Palermo 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Reggiana vs Palermo | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 36 | Venue: MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore • Kick-off: Saturday 25 Apr 2026, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Reggiana 24% | Draw 32% | Palermo 44% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 47% | xG Reggiana 0.95 / Palermo 1.33 • Poisson strength factors: Reggiana attack 0.761 / def 1.165 | Palermo attack 1.041 / def 0.892 | league avg home 1.394 / away 1.100 • Poisson stance: Palermo (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.95
Reggiana xG
Expected Goals
1.33
Palermo xG
47%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Reggiana vs Palermo kick off?
Reggiana vs Palermo kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 25 April 2026 at MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore.
What was the final score in Reggiana vs Palermo?
Reggiana 1 - 1 Palermo.
Where is Reggiana vs Palermo being played?
The match is being played at MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore.
What competition is Reggiana vs Palermo part of?
Reggiana vs Palermo is a Regular Season - 36 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Reggiana vs Palermo?
Our statistical model gives Reggiana a 24% chance of winning, Palermo a 44% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Palermo the favourite.
Will both teams score in Reggiana vs Palermo?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Reggiana and Palermo will score (BTTS).
Will Reggiana vs Palermo have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Reggiana and Palermo?
Record (5 meetings): Reggiana 2W | Draws 0 | Palermo 3W.
What form are Reggiana and Palermo in?
Reggiana (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-L-L-W-L. Palermo (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-W-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Reggiana's attack rating (0.76) and Palermo's defence rating (0.89), the model arrives at 0.95 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Palermo's attack (1.04x) against Reggiana's defence (1.17x) — and the away total comes out at 1.33.
These ratings are built from 73/73 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.6%. Close behind: 0-1 (11.9%), 0-0 (11.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Palermo Win
24%
4.09
32%
3.13
44%
2.29
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.6%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
0 – 0
10.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.95
Reggiana xG
Total xG
2.28
1.33
Palermo xG
4.09
24%
Home win
3.13
32%
Draw
2.29
44%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.12
53%
BTTS No
1.89
Clean Sheet
26%
3.80
39%
2.58
Win to Nil
6%
15.53
17%
5.91
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.2 | 13.6 | 9.1 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 9.7 | 12.9 | 8.6 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 4.6 | 6.1 | 4.1 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.4 | 1.9 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Reggiana vs Palermo?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Reggiana and Palermo expected to score?
The model projects 0.95 expected goals for Reggiana and 1.33 for Palermo, a combined total of 2.28.
How confident is the prediction model for Reggiana vs Palermo?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 73 outings, Reggiana have picked up 1.05 PPG on a 19W 20D 34L record — D-L-L-W-L across the most recent five.
Palermo's form line: 33W 21D 19L from 73 games, 1.64 PPG, last five D-W-W-D-W.
Put side by side, Palermo are the form team by 0.59 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Reggiana.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Reggiana have posted 1.25 PPG from 36 outings (11W 12D 13L).
On the road, Palermo have gone 12W 12D 12L from 36 away games — 1.33 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Reggiana are averaging 1.03 goals scored and 1.44 conceded per game recently; Palermo are on 1.49 scored and 0.97 conceded.
Defensively: Palermo in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 73 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Reggiana
Current Season
Palermo
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Reggiana and Palermo in coming into this match?
Reggiana have gone 19W 20D 34L in their last 73 games (1.05 PPG), while Palermo have gone 33W 21D 19L in their last 73 (1.64 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Reggiana at home or Palermo away?
Palermo's away record (1.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Reggiana at home: 1.25 PPG; Palermo away: 1.33 PPG.
Have Reggiana or Palermo been keeping clean sheets recently?
Reggiana have kept a clean sheet in 23% of their recent games, Palermo in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since August 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. They last met on 25 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Reggiana have gone 1W 1D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Palermo — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Reggiana
1
Draws
3
Palermo
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Reggiana and Palermo?
From 6 meetings on record, Reggiana have won 2, Palermo have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Reggiana and Palermo last play each other?
They last met on 25 April 2026, when Reggiana 1-1 Palermo.
Who has won more matches between Reggiana and Palermo?
Palermo have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Reggiana are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches.
Palermo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Reggiana 56%, Palermo 61% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Reggiana) and 53% (Palermo).
On the defensive side: Reggiana have failed to score in 31% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Reggiana home games / Palermo away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Reggiana play Palermo?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 56% of Reggiana's games and 61% of Palermo's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Reggiana vs Palermo usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Reggiana's recent games and 53% of Palermo's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Reggiana and Palermo tend to score early?
Reggiana have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, Palermo in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Reggiana and Palermo share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore, Regular Season - 36, as Reggiana and Palermo drew 1-1 in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Reggiana 0.95 xG and Palermo 1.33 xG, a combined 2.28. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Reggiana attack 0.76 / defence 1.17 against Palermo attack 1.04 / defence 0.89, drawn from 73/73 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Reggiana 24% | Draw 32% | Palermo 44%, with Palermo to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Reggiana 48%, Palermo 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Reggiana's trading profile (73 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Palermo's trading profile (73 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Palermo arrived the stronger side — 1.64 PPG against 1.05. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.