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Prediction vindicated as Modena edge out Reggiana 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Modena beat Reggiana 2-1 at Stadio Alberto Braglia, Regular Season - 37, in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Modena 1.53 xG and Reggiana 0.72 xG, a combined 2.25. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Modena attack 0.95 / defence 0.96 against Reggiana attack 0.69 / defence 1.18, drawn from 74/74 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Modena 55% | Draw 30% | Reggiana 15%, with Modena to win its most likely call at 55%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Modena 50%, Reggiana 47%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Modena's trading profile (74 games, 37 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.

Reggiana's trading profile (74 games, 37 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Modena 1.31 PPG, Reggiana 1.05 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Modena win broke the near-deadlock.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights