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Poisson model rates Modena at 56%, yet other data sources diverge — this Modena vs Arezzo fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie B clash, Regular Season - 15 as Modena welcome Arezzo to Stadio Alberto Braglia. Kick-off is set for Saturday 5 December 2026 at 14:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie B games this season, Modena have gone 3W 2D 5L from 10 outings — a 1.10 PPG return. Last five: L L W L L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Modena haven't played a Serie B game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Modena have posted 4W 2D 4L at Stadio Alberto Braglia — 1.40 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Modena 1.73 xG and Arezzo 0.89 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Modena attack 0.973 / defence 0.981 | Arezzo attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.543 / away 1.071. Data: 38 Modena games / 0 Arezzo games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Modena 56% | Draw 26% | Arezzo 18%. Fair-value odds: Modena 1.79 | Draw 3.85 | Arezzo 5.56. The model has a clear lean to Modena (56%) — a 38pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.62. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.62 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Modena as the most likely outcome at 56% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 26% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.62 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 49% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (0 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Modena vs Arezzo | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Stadio Alberto Braglia • Kick-off: Saturday 5 Dec 2026, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
⚔️ Head-to-Head History
• No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset
📈 Recent Form
• No current-season fixtures available — form shown from previous season data • Modena (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-L-W-L-L • Modena home split: 1.40 PPG from 10 | GF 1.20 / GA 0.90 | CS 4
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Modena 56% | Draw 26% | Arezzo 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 50% | xG Modena 1.73 / Arezzo 0.89 • Poisson strength factors: Modena attack 0.973 / def 0.981 | Arezzo attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 1.543 / away 1.071 • Poisson stance: Modena (56%) — strong lean
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.73
Modena xG
Expected Goals
0.89
Arezzo xG
50%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
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❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Modena vs Arezzo kick off?
Modena vs Arezzo is scheduled to kick off at 14:00 on Saturday 5 December 2026 at Stadio Alberto Braglia.
Where is Modena vs Arezzo being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Alberto Braglia.
What competition is Modena vs Arezzo part of?
Modena vs Arezzo is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Modena vs Arezzo?
Our statistical model gives Modena a 56% chance of winning, Arezzo a 18% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Modena the favourite.
Will both teams score in Modena vs Arezzo?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Modena and Arezzo will score (BTTS).
Will Modena vs Arezzo have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Modena and Arezzo?
• No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset
What form are Modena and Arezzo in?
• No current-season fixtures available — form shown from previous season data • Modena (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-L-W-L-L • Modena home split: 1.40 PPG from 10 | GF 1.20 / GA 0.90 | CS 4
What do the betting odds say about Modena vs Arezzo?
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture