Modena vs Arezzo – Pre-Match Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Modena at 48%, yet other data sources diverge — this Modena vs Arezzo fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie B clash, Regular Season - 15 as Modena welcome Arezzo to Stadio Alberto Braglia. Kick-off is set for Saturday 5 December 2026 at 14:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie B games this season, Modena have gone 5W 1D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.60 PPG return. Last five: L D W W L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Modena have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Modena have posted 5W 1D 4L at Stadio Alberto Braglia — 1.60 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Arezzo stand at 3W 1D 3L from 7 Serie B matches — 1.43 PPG. Last five: L W L D W. Their scoring rate of 1.14 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 7 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Arezzo have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Arezzo away from home this season: 3W 0D 1L from 4 away games — 2.25 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.25 goals scored and 1.75 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 2.25 exceeds their overall 1.43 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Modena at 1.60 PPG versus Arezzo's 1.43. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
In-Play Profile
Modena in-play tendencies (7 games, 3 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 57% of cases; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games.
Arezzo in-play tendencies (7 games, 3 at away): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games; Over 3.5 in 43%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Modena 71% and Arezzo 57% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Modena 71% | Arezzo 71%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Modena 1.68 xG and Arezzo 1.18 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Modena attack 1.072 / defence 1.046 | Arezzo attack 0.894 / defence 1.161. League average goals — home 1.353 / away 1.261. Data: 45 Modena games / 7 Arezzo games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Modena 48% | Draw 27% | Arezzo 25%. Fair-value odds: Modena 2.08 | Draw 3.70 | Arezzo 4.00. Modena hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.86. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.86 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Modena as the most likely outcome at 48% — moderate model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Modena offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.86 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 55% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 58% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Modena 60% | Arezzo 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Modena vs Arezzo | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Stadio Alberto Braglia • Kick-off: Saturday 5 Dec 2026, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Modena 48% | Draw 27% | Arezzo 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 58% | xG Modena 1.68 / Arezzo 1.18 • Poisson strength factors: Modena attack 1.072 / def 1.046 | Arezzo attack 0.894 / def 1.161 | league avg home 1.353 / away 1.261 • Poisson stance: Modena (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.68
Modena xG
Expected Goals
1.18
Arezzo xG
58%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Modena vs Arezzo kick off?
Modena vs Arezzo is scheduled to kick off at 14:00 on Saturday 5 December 2026 at Stadio Alberto Braglia.
Where is Modena vs Arezzo being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Alberto Braglia.
What competition is Modena vs Arezzo part of?
Modena vs Arezzo is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Modena vs Arezzo?
Our statistical model gives Modena a 48% chance of winning, Arezzo a 25% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Modena the favourite.
Will both teams score in Modena vs Arezzo?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Modena and Arezzo will score (BTTS).
Will Modena vs Arezzo have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Modena and Arezzo?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Modena and Arezzo in?
Modena (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-D-W-W-L. Arezzo (all comps): 3W-1D-3L in 7 | 1.43 PPG | GF 1.14 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-W-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Modena's attack at 1.07x the league average against Arezzo's defence at 1.16x — combine the two and it projects 1.68 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Arezzo's attack versus Modena's defence, projects 1.18 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 45/7 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.5%), 1-0 (8.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Modena Win
48%
2.10
27%
3.70
25%
3.96
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.6%
Home win
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.68
Modena xG
Total xG
2.86
1.18
Arezzo xG
2.10
48%
Home win
3.70
27%
Draw
3.96
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.73
42%
BTTS No
2.37
Clean Sheet
31%
3.25
19%
5.39
Win to Nil
15%
6.82
5%
21.31
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.7 | 6.7 | 4.0 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.6 | 11.3 | 6.7 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.1 | 9.5 | 5.6 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.5 | 5.4 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.9 | 2.3 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Modena vs Arezzo?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.8%.
How many goals are Modena and Arezzo expected to score?
The model projects 1.68 expected goals for Modena and 1.18 for Arezzo, a combined total of 2.86.
How confident is the prediction model for Modena vs Arezzo?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Modena come into this having played 7 games, going 4W 1D 2L for 1.86 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-W-W-L. It's still early in the season for Modena, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Arezzo sit at 1.43 PPG from 7 outings (3W 1D 3L), a run that reads L-W-L-D-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for Arezzo, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Modena carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.43 PPG clear of Arezzo — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Modena's home form reads 2W 0D 1L across 3 games on their own ground, a 2.00 PPG return.
Away from home, Arezzo have taken 2.00 points per game from 3 outings (2W 0D 1L). That's actually stronger than their 1.43 PPG overall record — Arezzo travel well.
The Goals Picture
Modena are averaging 1.71 goals scored and 1.14 conceded per game recently; Arezzo are on 1.14 scored and 2.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Modena have seen both teams score in 71% of their recent games.
Last 7 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Modena
Early Season
Arezzo
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Modena and Arezzo in coming into this match?
Modena have gone 4W 1D 2L in their last 7 games (1.86 PPG), while Arezzo have gone 3W 1D 3L in their last 7 (1.43 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Modena at home or Arezzo away?
Modena's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Modena at home: 2.00 PPG; Arezzo away: 2.00 PPG.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Modena are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 67% of those situations.
Arezzo see a goal before the break in 33% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Modena 67%, Arezzo 33% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for Modena and 67% for Arezzo. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Arezzo in 33%; Modena have failed to score in 33% of games; Arezzo in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Modena home games / Arezzo away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Modena play Arezzo?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 67% of Modena's recent matches and 33% of Arezzo's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Modena vs Arezzo usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Modena's matches and 67% of Arezzo's.
Do Modena and Arezzo tend to score early?
Modena have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Arezzo in 33% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.