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Poisson model rates Juve Stabia at 55%, yet other data sources diverge — this Juve Stabia vs Benevento fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Fixture Analysis

It is a Serie B clash, Regular Season - 15 as Juve Stabia welcome Benevento to Stadio Romeo Menti. Kick-off is set for Saturday 5 December 2026 at 14:00 UTC.

Recent Form

Across all Serie B games this season, Juve Stabia have gone 3W 4D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.30 PPG return. Last five: L D W D L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Juve Stabia haven't played a Serie B game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.

Juve Stabia's form when playing at home: 3W 5D 2L across 10 games at Stadio Romeo Menti this term (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Juve Stabia 1.69 xG and Benevento 0.87 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Juve Stabia attack 0.952 / defence 0.959 | Benevento attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.543 / away 1.071. Data: 38 Juve Stabia games / 0 Benevento games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.

Result probabilities: Juve Stabia 55% | Draw 26% | Benevento 18%. Fair-value odds: Juve Stabia 1.82 | Draw 3.85 | Benevento 5.56. The model has a clear lean to Juve Stabia (55%) — a 37pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.56. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.56 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Juve Stabia as the most likely outcome at 55% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 26% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.56 combined xG gives a 47% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.

The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (0 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.

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