Juve Stabia vs Benevento – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates Juve Stabia at 44% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Juve Stabia vs Benevento encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie B clash, Regular Season - 15 as Juve Stabia welcome Benevento to Stadio Romeo Menti. Kick-off is set for Saturday 5 December 2026 at 14:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie B games this season, Juve Stabia have gone 2W 4D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.00 PPG return. Last five: D L L W L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Juve Stabia have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Juve Stabia's form when playing at home: 2W 5D 3L across 10 games at Stadio Romeo Menti this term (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Benevento — All Games: 0W 1D 2L from 3 Serie B fixtures this season — 0.33 PPG. Last five: L D L. Their scoring rate of 0.67 per game is modest, conceding 1.33 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 67% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Benevento have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Juve Stabia carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.67 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.00 vs 0.33. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Juve Stabia register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant matches, Benevento in 67% (using overall form) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
In-Play Data
Juve Stabia trading profile (3 games): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games; they fail to score in 67% of games.
Benevento trading profile (3 games): they score before half-time in 33% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games; they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Juve Stabia 33% versus Benevento 67%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Juve Stabia 67% | Benevento 33%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Juve Stabia 1.29 xG and Benevento 0.95 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Juve Stabia attack 0.837 / defence 1.181 | Benevento attack 0.696 / defence 1.106. League average goals — home 1.391 / away 1.158. Data: 41 Juve Stabia games / 3 Benevento games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Juve Stabia 44% | Draw 28% | Benevento 27%. Fair-value odds: Juve Stabia 2.27 | Draw 3.57 | Benevento 3.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.24. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.24 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Both sides post BTTS form rates above 65% but Poisson BTTS probability is only 44% — the model sees a defensive matchup that form results do not yet show.
Poisson rates Juve Stabia as the most likely outcome at 44% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Juve Stabia offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.24 combined xG gives a 39% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 44% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Juve Stabia 70% | Benevento 67% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Juve Stabia vs Benevento | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Stadio Romeo Menti • Kick-off: Saturday 5 Dec 2026, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Juve Stabia 44% | Draw 28% | Benevento 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 44% | xG Juve Stabia 1.29 / Benevento 0.95 • Poisson strength factors: Juve Stabia attack 0.837 / def 1.181 | Benevento attack 0.696 / def 1.106 | league avg home 1.391 / away 1.158 • Poisson stance: Juve Stabia (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.29
Juve Stabia xG
Expected Goals
0.95
Benevento xG
44%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Juve Stabia vs Benevento kick off?
Juve Stabia vs Benevento is scheduled to kick off at 14:00 on Saturday 5 December 2026 at Stadio Romeo Menti.
Where is Juve Stabia vs Benevento being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Romeo Menti.
What competition is Juve Stabia vs Benevento part of?
Juve Stabia vs Benevento is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Juve Stabia vs Benevento?
Our statistical model gives Juve Stabia a 44% chance of winning, Benevento a 27% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Juve Stabia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Juve Stabia vs Benevento?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Juve Stabia and Benevento will score (BTTS).
Will Juve Stabia vs Benevento have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between Juve Stabia and Benevento?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Juve Stabia and Benevento in?
Juve Stabia (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-L-L-W-L. Benevento (all comps): 0W-1D-2L in 3 | 0.33 PPG | GF 0.67 / GA 1.33 | L5 L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Juve Stabia's attack at 0.84x the league average against Benevento's defence at 1.11x — combine the two and it projects 1.29 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Benevento's attack versus Juve Stabia's defence, projects 0.95 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 41/3 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (12.4%), 1-0 (12.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Juve Stabia Win
44%
2.26
28%
3.53
27%
3.64
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
0 – 0
10.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.29
Juve Stabia xG
Total xG
2.24
0.95
Benevento xG
2.26
44%
Home win
3.53
28%
Draw
3.64
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.25
56%
BTTS No
1.80
Clean Sheet
39%
2.59
28%
3.62
Win to Nil
17%
5.85
8%
13.18
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.7 | 10.1 | 4.8 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.7 | 13.1 | 6.2 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.8 | 8.4 | 4.0 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.8 | 3.6 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Juve Stabia vs Benevento?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Juve Stabia and Benevento expected to score?
The model projects 1.29 expected goals for Juve Stabia and 0.95 for Benevento, a combined total of 2.24.
How confident is the prediction model for Juve Stabia vs Benevento?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Juve Stabia come into this having played 3 games, going 1W 0D 2L for 1.00 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-L. It's still early in the season for Juve Stabia, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Benevento sit at 0.33 PPG from 3 outings (0W 1D 2L), a run that reads L-D-L across their last five. It's still early in the season for Benevento, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Juve Stabia carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.67 PPG clear of Benevento — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Goals in Recent Form
Juve Stabia are averaging 0.67 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game recently; Benevento are on 0.67 scored and 1.33 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Benevento in 67%.
Last 3 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Juve Stabia
Early Season
Benevento
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Juve Stabia and Benevento in coming into this match?
Juve Stabia have gone 1W 0D 2L in their last 3 games (1.00 PPG), while Benevento have gone 0W 1D 2L in their last 3 (0.33 PPG).
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Juve Stabia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Benevento see a goal before the break in 33% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Juve Stabia 33%, Benevento 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 67% (Juve Stabia) and 33% (Benevento).
On the defensive side: Juve Stabia have failed to score in 67% of games; Benevento in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Juve Stabia home games / Benevento away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Juve Stabia play Benevento?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Juve Stabia's recent matches and 67% of Benevento's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Juve Stabia vs Benevento usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 67% of Juve Stabia's recent games and 33% of Benevento's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Juve Stabia and Benevento tend to score early?
Juve Stabia have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Benevento in 33% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.