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Poisson model rates Arezzo at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this Arezzo vs Pisa fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie B encounter, Regular Season - 14 sees Pisa travel to Citta di Arezzo to take on Arezzo. The game is scheduled for Saturday 28 November 2026, 14:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Looking at all fixtures this season, Pisa stand at 1W 0D 9L from 10 Serie B matches — 0.30 PPG. Last five: L L L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 2.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.30 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Pisa haven't played a Serie B game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Pisa away from home this season: 0W 2D 8L from 10 away games — 0.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 2.70 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Arezzo 1.51 xG and Pisa 1.05 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Arezzo attack 0.850 / defence 1.150 | Pisa attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.543 / away 1.071. Data: 0 Arezzo games / 0 Pisa games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Arezzo 47% | Draw 28% | Pisa 25%. Fair-value odds: Arezzo 2.13 | Draw 3.57 | Pisa 4.00. Arezzo hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.56. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.56 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Arezzo as the most likely outcome at 47% — moderate model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Arezzo offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.56 combined xG gives a 47% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (0 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Arezzo vs Pisa | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Citta di Arezzo • Kick-off: Saturday 28 Nov 2026, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
⚔️ Head-to-Head History
• No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset
📈 Recent Form
• No current-season fixtures available — form shown from previous season data • Pisa (all comps): 1W-0D-9L in 10 | 0.30 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 2.30 | L5 L-L-L-L-L • Pisa away split: 0.20 PPG from 10 | GF 0.50 / GA 2.70 | CS 1
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Arezzo 47% | Draw 28% | Pisa 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 52% | xG Arezzo 1.51 / Pisa 1.05 • Poisson strength factors: Arezzo attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | Pisa attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 1.543 / away 1.071 • Poisson stance: Arezzo (47%) — moderate lean
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.51
Arezzo xG
Expected Goals
1.05
Pisa xG
52%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
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❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Arezzo vs Pisa kick off?
Arezzo vs Pisa is scheduled to kick off at 14:00 on Saturday 28 November 2026 at Citta di Arezzo.
Where is Arezzo vs Pisa being played?
The match is being played at Citta di Arezzo.
What competition is Arezzo vs Pisa part of?
Arezzo vs Pisa is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Arezzo vs Pisa?
Our statistical model gives Arezzo a 47% chance of winning, Pisa a 25% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Arezzo the favourite.
Will both teams score in Arezzo vs Pisa?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Arezzo and Pisa will score (BTTS).
Will Arezzo vs Pisa have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Arezzo and Pisa?
• No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset
What form are Arezzo and Pisa in?
• No current-season fixtures available — form shown from previous season data • Pisa (all comps): 1W-0D-9L in 10 | 0.30 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 2.30 | L5 L-L-L-L-L • Pisa away split: 0.20 PPG from 10 | GF 0.50 / GA 2.70 | CS 1
What do the betting odds say about Arezzo vs Pisa?
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture