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Poisson model rates Mantova at 56%, yet other data sources diverge — this Mantova vs Benevento fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie B clash, Regular Season - 17 as Mantova welcome Benevento to Stadio Danilo Martelli. Kick-off is set for Saturday 12 December 2026 at 14:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie B games this season, Mantova have gone 6W 1D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.90 PPG return. Last five: W L W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. Mantova haven't played a Serie B game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Mantova have posted 6W 2D 2L at Stadio Danilo Martelli — 2.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Mantova 1.80 xG and Benevento 0.97 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Mantova attack 1.016 / defence 1.066 | Benevento attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.543 / away 1.071. Data: 38 Mantova games / 0 Benevento games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Mantova 56% | Draw 25% | Benevento 19%. Fair-value odds: Mantova 1.79 | Draw 4.00 | Benevento 5.26. The model has a clear lean to Mantova (56%) — a 37pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.77. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.77 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Mantova at 56% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.77 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 52% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (0 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Mantova vs Benevento | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Stadio Danilo Martelli • Kick-off: Saturday 12 Dec 2026, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
⚔️ Head-to-Head History
• No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset
📈 Recent Form
• No current-season fixtures available — form shown from previous season data • Mantova (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-W-W-L • Mantova home split: 2.00 PPG from 10 | GF 1.70 / GA 1.30 | CS 3
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Mantova 56% | Draw 25% | Benevento 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 53% | xG Mantova 1.80 / Benevento 0.97 • Poisson strength factors: Mantova attack 1.016 / def 1.066 | Benevento attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 1.543 / away 1.071 • Poisson stance: Mantova (56%) — strong lean
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.80
Mantova xG
Expected Goals
0.97
Benevento xG
53%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
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❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Mantova vs Benevento kick off?
Mantova vs Benevento is scheduled to kick off at 14:00 on Saturday 12 December 2026 at Stadio Danilo Martelli.
Where is Mantova vs Benevento being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Danilo Martelli.
What competition is Mantova vs Benevento part of?
Mantova vs Benevento is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Mantova vs Benevento?
Our statistical model gives Mantova a 56% chance of winning, Benevento a 19% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Mantova the favourite.
Will both teams score in Mantova vs Benevento?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Mantova and Benevento will score (BTTS).
Will Mantova vs Benevento have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Mantova and Benevento?
• No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset
What form are Mantova and Benevento in?
• No current-season fixtures available — form shown from previous season data • Mantova (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-W-W-L • Mantova home split: 2.00 PPG from 10 | GF 1.70 / GA 1.30 | CS 3
What do the betting odds say about Mantova vs Benevento?
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture