🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📋

Poisson model rates Virtus Entella at 57%, yet other data sources diverge — this Virtus Entella vs Arezzo fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

✍️ Match Preview

Fixture Analysis

It is a Serie B clash, Regular Season - 17 as Virtus Entella welcome Arezzo to Stadio Comunale. Kick-off is set for Saturday 12 December 2026 at 14:00 UTC.

Form Guide

Virtus Entella — All Games: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Serie B outings this season, averaging 1.40 points per game. Last five: D D W L W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Virtus Entella haven't played a Serie B game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.

At home at Stadio Comunale, Virtus Entella have gone 6W 2D 2L this season (10 games, 2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — Virtus Entella are significantly better at Stadio Comunale than their overall form suggests.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Virtus Entella 1.77 xG and Arezzo 0.88 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Virtus Entella attack 0.995 / defence 0.961 | Arezzo attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.543 / away 1.071. Data: 38 Virtus Entella games / 0 Arezzo games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.

Result probabilities: Virtus Entella 57% | Draw 26% | Arezzo 17%. Fair-value odds: Virtus Entella 1.75 | Draw 3.85 | Arezzo 5.88. The model has a clear lean to Virtus Entella (57%) — a 40pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.64. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.64 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Virtus Entella at 57% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 26% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.64 combined xG gives a 49% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.

The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (0 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights