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Poisson model rates Benevento at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this Benevento vs Pisa fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie B clash, Regular Season - 18 as Benevento welcome Pisa to Stadio Ciro Vigorito. Kick-off is set for Saturday 19 December 2026 at 14:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Pisa — All Games: 1W 0D 9L from 10 Serie B fixtures this season — 0.30 PPG. Last five: L L L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 2.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.30 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Pisa haven't played a Serie B game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Pisa's form when playing away from home: 0W 2D 8L across 10 road games this term (0.20 PPG). Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 2.70 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for Benevento, 3 for Pisa and 1 shared spoils from 6 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 1.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 18 Mar 2023, ended 0–2 with Pisa winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Benevento 1.51 xG and Pisa 1.05 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Benevento attack 0.850 / defence 1.150 | Pisa attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.543 / away 1.071. Data: 0 Benevento games / 0 Pisa games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Benevento 47% | Draw 28% | Pisa 25%. Fair-value odds: Benevento 2.13 | Draw 3.57 | Pisa 4.00. Benevento hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.56. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.56 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Benevento at 47% — moderate model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Benevento offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.56 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 47% — reasonable confidence, supported by H2H averaging 1.8 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (0 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Benevento vs Pisa | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Stadio Ciro Vigorito • Kick-off: Saturday 19 Dec 2026, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
⚔️ Head-to-Head History
• Record (6 meetings): Benevento 2W | Draws 1 | Pisa 3W • Goals trend: 1.83 goals/game | Total H2H goals: Benevento 6 – 5 Pisa • H2H markets: BTTS 17% | Over 2.5 17% | Win rates: Benevento 33% / Draw 17% / Pisa 50% • Historical edge: no clear dominance — balanced H2H ledger • H2H result: balanced record (no historical lean) — Poisson model projects home 47% / draw 28% / away 25% • Goals: H2H average 1.83/game (17% Over 2.5 historically), Poisson total xG 2.56 (47% Over 2.5) — broadly consistent • BTTS: H2H rate 17%, Poisson probability 52% — no strong aligned signal
📈 Recent Form
• No current-season fixtures available — form shown from previous season data • Pisa (all comps): 1W-0D-9L in 10 | 0.30 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 2.30 | L5 L-L-L-L-L • Pisa away split: 0.20 PPG from 10 | GF 0.50 / GA 2.70 | CS 1
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Benevento 47% | Draw 28% | Pisa 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 52% | xG Benevento 1.51 / Pisa 1.05 • Poisson strength factors: Benevento attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | Pisa attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 1.543 / away 1.071 • Poisson stance: Benevento (47%) — moderate lean
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.51
Benevento xG
Expected Goals
1.05
Pisa xG
52%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
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❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Benevento vs Pisa kick off?
Benevento vs Pisa is scheduled to kick off at 14:00 on Saturday 19 December 2026 at Stadio Ciro Vigorito.
Where is Benevento vs Pisa being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Ciro Vigorito.
What competition is Benevento vs Pisa part of?
Benevento vs Pisa is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Benevento vs Pisa?
Our statistical model gives Benevento a 47% chance of winning, Pisa a 25% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Benevento the favourite.
Will both teams score in Benevento vs Pisa?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Benevento and Pisa will score (BTTS).
Will Benevento vs Pisa have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Benevento and Pisa?
• Record (6 meetings): Benevento 2W | Draws 1 | Pisa 3W • Goals trend: 1.83 goals/game | Total H2H goals: Benevento 6 – 5 Pisa • H2H markets: BTTS 17% | Over 2.5 17% | Win rates: Benevento 33% / Draw 17% / Pisa 50% • Historical edge: no clear dominance — balanced H2H ledger • H2H result: balanced record (no historical lean) — Poisson model projects home 47% / draw 28% / away 25% • Goals: H2H average 1.83/game (17% Over 2.5 historically), Poisson total xG 2.56 (47% Over 2.5) — broadly consistent • BTTS: H2H rate 17%, Poisson probability 52% — no strong aligned signal
What form are Benevento and Pisa in?
• No current-season fixtures available — form shown from previous season data • Pisa (all comps): 1W-0D-9L in 10 | 0.30 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 2.30 | L5 L-L-L-L-L • Pisa away split: 0.20 PPG from 10 | GF 0.50 / GA 2.70 | CS 1
What do the betting odds say about Benevento vs Pisa?
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture