Carrarese vs Juve Stabia – Pre-Match Analysis

Poisson model rates Carrarese at 34%, yet other data sources diverge — this Carrarese vs Juve Stabia fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

✍️ Match Preview

Full Analysis

Stadio dei Marmi plays host to Carrarese versus Juve Stabia in Serie B, Regular Season - 14. Kick-off: Saturday 28 November 2026 at 14:00 UTC.

Form & Momentum

Carrarese have collected 0.80 PPG across 10 Serie B outings this season: 2W 2D 6L. Last five: L L L W W. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Carrarese have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.

At home at Stadio dei Marmi, Carrarese have gone 3W 3D 4L this season (10 games, 1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.

Juve Stabia (all games): 2W 5D 3L across 10 Serie B outings this term — 1.10 points per game. Last five: W L D D D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Juve Stabia have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.

Juve Stabia away from home this season: 2W 5D 3L from 10 away games — 1.10 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

Both sides are running at similar form levels — 0.80 PPG for Carrarese against 1.10 for Juve Stabia. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.

Head-to-Head

Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 4 meetings: Carrarese 1W, Juve Stabia 1W, 2D.

The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 14 Mar 2026, ended 1–1 with a draw.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

Trading Data

Carrarese goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (45 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 48% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 35% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.

Juve Stabia goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (45 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Carrarese 47% versus Juve Stabia 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Carrarese 47% | Juve Stabia 44%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Carrarese 1.06 xG and Juve Stabia 1.06 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Carrarese attack 0.870 / defence 0.951 | Juve Stabia attack 0.878 / defence 0.910. League average goals — home 1.343 / away 1.271. Data: 45 Carrarese games / 44 Juve Stabia games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Carrarese 34% | Draw 32% | Juve Stabia 34%. Fair-value odds: Carrarese 2.94 | Draw 3.12 | Juve Stabia 2.94. The draw (32%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.12. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.12 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Verdict

The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 32% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 34% and away win at 34% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.

The Poisson model projects 2.12 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 36% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.

Poisson assigns a 44% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Carrarese 50% | Juve Stabia 80% from recent games — a notable divergence.

The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.

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