Genoa 0-1 Cittadella – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 35% as Genoa take on Cittadella.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Genoa host Cittadella at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris in Serie B, Regular Season - 15. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 4 December 2022 at 14:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Genoa — All Games: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Serie B outings this season, averaging 1.50 points per game. Last five: W D L D L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Genoa, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Genoa have posted 3W 5D 2L at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris — 1.40 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Cittadella stand at 2W 5D 3L from 10 Serie B matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: D W D L D. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Cittadella, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Cittadella have gone 2W 4D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.50 PPG (Genoa) versus 1.10 (Cittadella). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
In-Play Profile
Genoa in-play tendencies (52 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 52% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (home games); they fail to score in 46% of games.
Cittadella in-play tendencies (52 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 52% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 28% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time; they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Genoa 44% versus Cittadella 42%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Genoa 40% | Cittadella 31%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Genoa 0.95 xG and Cittadella 0.94 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Genoa attack 0.770 / defence 0.991 | Cittadella attack 0.843 / defence 0.981. League average goals — home 1.256 / away 1.120. Genoa's attack strength of 0.770 is below the league average — the 0.95 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 14 Genoa games / 52 Cittadella games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Genoa 33% | Draw 35% | Cittadella 32%. Fair-value odds: Genoa 3.03 | Draw 2.86 | Cittadella 3.12. The draw (35%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 29% | BTTS probability 39% | Total xG 1.89. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 71% probability — total xG of 1.89 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 39% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 35% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 33% and away win at 32% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.89 combined xG gives a 29% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 39% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Genoa 50% | Cittadella 40% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Genoa vs Cittadella | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris • Kick-off: Sunday 4 Dec 2022, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Genoa 33% | Draw 35% | Cittadella 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 29% | BTTS 39% | xG Genoa 0.95 / Cittadella 0.94 • Poisson strength factors: Genoa attack 0.770 / def 0.991 | Cittadella attack 0.843 / def 0.981 | league avg home 1.256 / away 1.120 • Poisson stance: Draw (35%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.95
Genoa xG
Expected Goals
0.94
Cittadella xG
39%
BTTS
58%
Over 1.5
29%
Over 2.5
12%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Genoa vs Cittadella kick off?
Genoa vs Cittadella kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 4 December 2022 at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris.
What was the final score in Genoa vs Cittadella?
Genoa 0 - 1 Cittadella.
Where is Genoa vs Cittadella being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris.
What competition is Genoa vs Cittadella part of?
Genoa vs Cittadella is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Genoa vs Cittadella?
Our statistical model gives Genoa a 33% chance of winning, Cittadella a 32% chance, and a 35% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Genoa vs Cittadella?
Our model estimates a 39% probability that both Genoa and Cittadella will score (BTTS).
Will Genoa vs Cittadella have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 29%.
What is the head-to-head record between Genoa and Cittadella?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Genoa and Cittadella in?
Genoa (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-D-L-D-L. Cittadella (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-W-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Genoa's attack rating (0.77) and Cittadella's defence rating (0.98), the model arrives at 0.95 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Cittadella's attack versus Genoa's defence, projects 0.94 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 14/52 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 16.9%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.2%), 1-0 (12.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 45% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
33%
3.05
35%
2.84
32%
3.12
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
15.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
14.4%
Home win
0 – 1
14.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.95
Genoa xG
Total xG
1.89
0.94
Cittadella xG
3.05
33%
Home win
2.84
35%
Draw
3.12
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
56%
Over 1.5
1.79
44%
Under 1.5
2.27
29%
Over 2.5
3.45
71%
Under 2.5
1.41
12%
Over 3.5
8.33
88%
Under 3.5
1.14
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
39%
BTTS Yes
2.57
61%
BTTS No
1.64
Clean Sheet
39%
2.55
39%
2.58
Win to Nil
13%
7.79
12%
8.06
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 15.2 | 14.2 | 6.7 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.4 | 13.5 | 6.3 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.8 | 6.4 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 2.2 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Genoa vs Cittadella?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.9%.
How many goals are Genoa and Cittadella expected to score?
The model projects 0.95 expected goals for Genoa and 0.94 for Cittadella, a combined total of 1.89.
How confident is the prediction model for Genoa vs Cittadella?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 52 outings, Genoa have picked up 0.98 PPG on a 10W 21D 21L record — W-D-L-D-L across the most recent five. The sample for Genoa is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Cittadella's form line: 16W 20D 16L from 52 games, 1.31 PPG, last five D-W-D-L-D. The sample for Cittadella is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Genoa on 0.98 PPG, Cittadella on 1.31. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Genoa have posted 1.00 PPG from 25 outings (4W 13D 8L).
On the road, Cittadella have gone 7W 11D 7L from 25 away games — 1.28 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Genoa are averaging 0.83 goals scored and 1.38 conceded per game recently; Cittadella are on 0.96 scored and 1.00 conceded.
Defensively: Cittadella in 42% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 52 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Genoa
Blended
Cittadella
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Genoa and Cittadella in coming into this match?
Genoa have gone 10W 21D 21L in their last 52 games (0.98 PPG), while Cittadella have gone 16W 20D 16L in their last 52 (1.31 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Genoa at home or Cittadella away?
Cittadella's away record (1.28 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Genoa at home: 1.00 PPG; Cittadella away: 1.28 PPG.
Have Genoa or Cittadella been keeping clean sheets recently?
Genoa have kept a clean sheet in 29% of their recent games, Cittadella in 42%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 22 April 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Genoa
0
Draws
1
Cittadella
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Genoa and Cittadella?
From 2 meetings on record, Genoa have won 1, Cittadella have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Genoa and Cittadella last play each other?
They last met on 22 April 2023, when Cittadella 0-1 Genoa.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Genoa see a goal before the break in 52% of their matches.
Cittadella are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Genoa 44%, Cittadella 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 36% for Genoa and 28% for Cittadella.
On the defensive side: Genoa keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Cittadella in 40%; Genoa have failed to score in 44% of games; Cittadella in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Genoa home games / Cittadella away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Genoa play Cittadella?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Genoa's recent matches and 44% of Cittadella's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Genoa vs Cittadella usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 36% of Genoa's recent games and 28% of Cittadella's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Genoa and Cittadella tend to score early?
Genoa have had a goal before half-time in 52% of their recent matches, Cittadella in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Cittadella defy the odds to beat Genoa 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cittadella beat Genoa 0-1 at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris, Regular Season - 15, in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Genoa 0.95 xG and Cittadella 0.94 xG, a combined 1.89. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Genoa fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Genoa attack 0.77 / defence 0.99 against Cittadella attack 0.84 / defence 0.98, drawn from 14/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Genoa 33% | Draw 35% | Cittadella 32%, with the draw its most likely call at 35%. The actual Cittadella win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 29%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 58% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 36% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Genoa 40%, Cittadella 31%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Genoa's trading profile (52 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 46% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Cittadella's trading profile (52 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Genoa 0.98 PPG, Cittadella 1.31 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Cittadella win broke the near-deadlock. Genoa (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.80 scoring average — below par going forward. Cittadella (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.