Spal 0-2 Frosinone – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Frosinone at 50% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Spal vs Frosinone encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie B encounter, Regular Season - 27 sees Frosinone travel to Stadio Paolo Mazza to take on Spal. The game is scheduled for Wednesday 1 March 2023, 19:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Spal stand at 2W 3D 5L from 10 Serie B matches — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L L L D L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Spal, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Spal's home record at Stadio Paolo Mazza: 1W 4D 5L from 10 Serie B appearances (0.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Serie B games this season, Frosinone have recorded 6W 2D 2L from 10 outings — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W W W D L. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 0.80. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Frosinone, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Serie B this season, Frosinone have posted 6W 2D 2L from 10 away outings — 2.00 PPG. Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Form points away from home here. Frosinone's 2.00 PPG return is 1.10 points per game ahead of Spal's 0.90 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Spal register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant matches, Frosinone in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 3 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Spal, 2 for Frosinone and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 3 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 8 Oct 2022, ended 0–2 with Frosinone winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Spal in-play and half-time data (64 games, 32 at home): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 66% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Frosinone in-play and half-time data (64 games, 32 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Spal 55% versus Frosinone 45%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Spal 44% | Frosinone 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Spal 1.14 xG and Frosinone 1.72 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Spal attack 1.114 / defence 1.324 | Frosinone attack 1.280 / defence 0.853. League average goals — home 1.196 / away 1.015. Frosinone have an above-average attack strength of 1.280 — the away xG of 1.72 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 64 Spal games / 64 Frosinone games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Spal 24% | Draw 26% | Frosinone 50%. Fair-value odds: Spal 4.17 | Draw 3.85 | Frosinone 2.00. Frosinone hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.86. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.86 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Frosinone at 50% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Frosinone offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.86 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 54% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 57%. Form rates corroborate: Spal 70% | Frosinone 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Spal vs Frosinone | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: Stadio Paolo Mazza • Kick-off: Wednesday 1 Mar 2023, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Spal 24% | Draw 26% | Frosinone 50% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 57% | xG Spal 1.14 / Frosinone 1.72 • Poisson strength factors: Spal attack 1.114 / def 1.324 | Frosinone attack 1.280 / def 0.853 | league avg home 1.196 / away 1.015 • Poisson stance: Frosinone (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.14
Spal xG
Expected Goals
1.72
Frosinone xG
57%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Spal vs Frosinone kick off?
Spal vs Frosinone kicked off at 19:30 on Wednesday 1 March 2023 at Stadio Paolo Mazza.
What was the final score in Spal vs Frosinone?
Spal 0 - 2 Frosinone.
Where is Spal vs Frosinone being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Paolo Mazza.
What competition is Spal vs Frosinone part of?
Spal vs Frosinone is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Spal vs Frosinone?
Our statistical model gives Spal a 24% chance of winning, Frosinone a 50% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Frosinone the favourite.
Will both teams score in Spal vs Frosinone?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Spal and Frosinone will score (BTTS).
Will Spal vs Frosinone have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Spal and Frosinone?
Record (3 meetings): Spal 1W | Draws 0 | Frosinone 2W.
What form are Spal and Frosinone in?
Spal (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-L-D-L. Frosinone (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Spal's attack rating (1.11) and Frosinone's defence rating (0.85), the model arrives at 1.14 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Frosinone's attack versus Spal's defence, projects 1.72 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 64/64 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.7%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.7%), 0-2 (8.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Frosinone Win
24%
4.13
26%
3.89
50%
2.00
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.2%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.9%
Away win
1 – 2
9.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.14
Spal xG
Total xG
2.86
1.72
Frosinone xG
4.13
24%
Home win
3.89
26%
Draw
2.00
50%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.76
43%
BTTS No
2.31
Clean Sheet
18%
5.58
32%
3.12
Win to Nil
4%
23.04
16%
6.23
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.7 | 9.9 | 8.5 | 4.9 | 2.1 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 6.5 | 11.2 | 9.7 | 5.5 | 2.4 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 3.7 | 6.4 | 5.5 | 3.1 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 1.4 | 2.4 | 2.1 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Spal vs Frosinone?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.7%.
How many goals are Spal and Frosinone expected to score?
The model projects 1.14 expected goals for Spal and 1.72 for Frosinone, a combined total of 2.86.
How confident is the prediction model for Spal vs Frosinone?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Spal come into this having played 64 games, going 14W 25D 25L for 1.05 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-D-L. The sample for Spal is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Frosinone sit at 1.77 PPG from 64 outings (32W 17D 15L), a run that reads W-W-W-D-L across their last five. The sample for Frosinone is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Frosinone carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.72 PPG clear of Spal — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Spal's home form reads 7W 12D 13L across 32 games on their own ground, a 1.03 PPG return.
Away from home, Frosinone have taken 1.41 points per game from 32 outings (12W 9D 11L).
Goals in Recent Form
Spal are averaging 1.17 goals scored and 1.41 conceded per game recently; Frosinone are on 1.58 scored and 0.98 conceded.
Defensively: Frosinone in 41% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 64 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Spal
Blended
Frosinone
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Spal and Frosinone in coming into this match?
Spal have gone 14W 25D 25L in their last 64 games (1.05 PPG), while Frosinone have gone 32W 17D 15L in their last 64 (1.77 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Spal at home or Frosinone away?
Frosinone's away record (1.41 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Spal at home: 1.03 PPG; Frosinone away: 1.41 PPG.
Have Spal or Frosinone been keeping clean sheets recently?
Spal have kept a clean sheet in 25% of their recent games, Frosinone in 41%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 1 March 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Frosinone have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 18 Dec 2021, when Frosinone won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Spal's record when hosting Frosinone specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Spal
0
Draws
3
Frosinone
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Spal and Frosinone?
From 4 meetings on record, Spal have won 1, Frosinone have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Spal and Frosinone last play each other?
They last met on 1 March 2023, when Spal 0-2 Frosinone.
Who has won more matches between Spal and Frosinone?
Frosinone have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Spal are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
Frosinone are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 19% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Spal 66%, Frosinone 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Spal) and 44% (Frosinone).
On the defensive side: Frosinone in 28%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Spal home games / Frosinone away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Spal play Frosinone?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 66% of Spal's games and 50% of Frosinone's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Spal vs Frosinone usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Spal's recent games and 44% of Frosinone's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Spal and Frosinone tend to score early?
Spal have had a goal before half-time in 88% of their recent matches, Frosinone in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Frosinone cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Spal.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Frosinone beat Spal 0-2 at Stadio Paolo Mazza, Regular Season - 27, in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Spal 1.14 xG and Frosinone 1.72 xG, a combined 2.86. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Spal fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Spal attack 1.11 / defence 1.32 against Frosinone attack 1.28 / defence 0.85, drawn from 64/64 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Spal 24% | Draw 26% | Frosinone 50%, with Frosinone to win its most likely call at 50%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Spal 44%, Frosinone 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Spal's trading profile (64 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Frosinone's trading profile (64 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Frosinone arrived the stronger side — 1.77 PPG against 1.05. That form edge translated into the three points. Spal (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.53 scoring average — below par going forward. Frosinone (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.25 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.