Benevento 0-0 Lecce – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Benevento at 63% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Benevento vs Lecce encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie B clash, Regular Season - 3 as Benevento welcome Lecce to Stadio Ciro Vigorito. Kick-off is set for Friday 10 September 2021 at 19:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie B games this season, Benevento have gone 1W 0D 1L from 2 outings — a 1.50 PPG return. Last five: W L. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Benevento have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Lecce stand at 0W 1D 1L from 2 Serie B matches — 0.50 PPG. Last five: L D. Their scoring rate of 0.50 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Lecce have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Benevento carry the stronger recent momentum — 1.00 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.50 vs 0.50. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Benevento 2.22 xG and Lecce 1.09 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Benevento attack 1.249 / defence 1.409 | Lecce attack 0.720 / defence 1.311. League average goals — home 1.357 / away 1.071. Lecce bring a strong defensive rating of 1.311 — this is suppressing Benevento's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 2 Benevento games / 2 Lecce games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Benevento 63% | Draw 19% | Lecce 17%. Fair-value odds: Benevento 1.59 | Draw 5.26 | Lecce 5.88. The model has a clear lean to Benevento (63%) — a 46pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 3.31. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.31 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Benevento at 63% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 19% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.31 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 64% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (2 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Benevento vs Lecce | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Stadio Ciro Vigorito • Kick-off: Friday 10 Sep 2021, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Benevento 63% | Draw 19% | Lecce 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 64% | BTTS 59% | xG Benevento 2.22 / Lecce 1.09 • Poisson strength factors: Benevento attack 1.249 / def 1.409 | Lecce attack 0.720 / def 1.311 | league avg home 1.357 / away 1.071 • Poisson stance: Benevento (63%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.22
Benevento xG
Expected Goals
1.09
Lecce xG
59%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
64%
Over 2.5
42%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Benevento vs Lecce kick off?
Benevento vs Lecce kicked off at 19:30 on Friday 10 September 2021 at Stadio Ciro Vigorito.
What was the final score in Benevento vs Lecce?
Benevento 0 - 0 Lecce.
Where is Benevento vs Lecce being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Ciro Vigorito.
What competition is Benevento vs Lecce part of?
Benevento vs Lecce is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Benevento vs Lecce?
Our statistical model gives Benevento a 63% chance of winning, Lecce a 17% chance, and a 19% chance of a draw — making Benevento the favourite.
Will both teams score in Benevento vs Lecce?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Benevento and Lecce will score (BTTS).
Will Benevento vs Lecce have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 64%.
What is the head-to-head record between Benevento and Lecce?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Benevento and Lecce in?
Benevento (all comps): 1W-0D-1L in 2 | 1.50 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 2.00 | L5 W-L. Lecce (all comps): 0W-1D-1L in 2 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Benevento's attack rating (1.25) and Lecce's defence rating (1.31), the model arrives at 2.22 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Lecce's attack versus Benevento's defence, projects 1.09 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (2/2 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.0%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (9.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Benevento Win
63%
1.59
19%
5.13
17%
5.73
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
9.0%
Home win
1 – 1
8.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.22
Benevento xG
Total xG
3.31
1.09
Lecce xG
1.59
63%
Home win
5.13
19%
Draw
5.73
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
64%
Over 2.5
1.56
36%
Under 2.5
2.78
42%
Over 3.5
2.38
58%
Under 3.5
1.72
24%
Over 4.5
4.17
76%
Under 4.5
1.32
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.69
41%
BTTS No
2.44
Clean Sheet
34%
2.96
11%
9.23
Win to Nil
21%
4.70
2%
52.90
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.7 | 4.0 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 8.1 | 8.8 | 4.8 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.0 | 9.8 | 5.3 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.7 | 7.3 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.7 | 4.0 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.7 | 1.8 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Benevento vs Lecce?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.0%.
How many goals are Benevento and Lecce expected to score?
The model projects 2.22 expected goals for Benevento and 1.09 for Lecce, a combined total of 3.31.
How confident is the prediction model for Benevento vs Lecce?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 63%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Benevento's recent record stands at 1W 0D 1L from 2 games, a 1.50 PPG return, with W-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for Benevento, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Lecce, meanwhile, have gone 0W 1D 1L across 2 games — 0.50 PPG, with L-D in their last five. It's still early in the season for Lecce, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Benevento by 1.00 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Lecce heading into this one.
The Goals Picture
Benevento are averaging 2.00 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game recently; Lecce are on 0.50 scored and 2.00 conceded.
Last 2 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Benevento
Early Season
Lecce
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Benevento and Lecce in coming into this match?
Benevento have gone 1W 0D 1L in their last 2 games (1.50 PPG), while Lecce have gone 0W 1D 1L in their last 2 (0.50 PPG).
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Benevento and Lecce runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 13 February 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Benevento
2
Draws
0
Lecce
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Benevento and Lecce?
From 2 meetings on record, Benevento have won 0, Lecce have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Benevento and Lecce last play each other?
They last met on 13 February 2022, when Lecce 1-1 Benevento.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Benevento home games / Lecce away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Benevento play Lecce?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Benevento's recent matches and 50% of Lecce's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Benevento vs Lecce usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Benevento's recent games and 50% of Lecce's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Stalemate at Benevento's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadio Ciro Vigorito, Regular Season - 3, as Benevento and Lecce drew 0-0 in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Benevento 2.22 xG and Lecce 1.09 xG, a combined 3.31. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Benevento fell 2.2 short of their projected output. Lecce landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Benevento attack 1.25 / defence 1.41 against Lecce attack 0.72 / defence 1.31, drawn from 2/2 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Benevento 63% | Draw 19% | Lecce 17%, with Benevento to win its most likely call at 63%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 19% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 84% and missed. Over 3.5 was 42% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Benevento 50%, Lecce 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Form vs Result
On form, Benevento arrived the stronger side — 1.50 PPG against 0.50. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Benevento managed 0 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line. Lecce conceded 0 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.