Alessandria 1-3 Brescia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Alessandria at 38%, yet in-form Brescia provide a compelling counter-argument — this Alessandria vs Brescia fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Alessandria and Brescia meet at Stadio Giuseppe Moccagatta in Serie B, Regular Season - 3. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 11 September 2021 at 13:00 UTC.
Form
Alessandria (all games): 0W 0D 2L across 2 Serie B fixtures this term — 0.00 PPG. Last five: L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 3.00 conceded. However, 3.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Alessandria have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Brescia's overall Serie B record this term: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games (3.00 PPG). Last five: W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 3.50 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 1 clean sheet from 2 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Brescia have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Brescia are 3.00 PPG clear of Alessandria in recent Serie B fixtures (3.00 vs 0.00). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Alessandria 1.22 xG and Brescia 1.14 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Alessandria attack 0.959 / defence 1.150 | Brescia attack 0.972 / defence 0.988. League average goals — home 1.285 / away 1.020. Data: 2 Alessandria games / 2 Brescia games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Alessandria 38% | Draw 28% | Brescia 34%. Fair-value odds: Alessandria 2.63 | Draw 3.57 | Brescia 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.36. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.36 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Form averages suggest ~3.4 goals/game but Poisson Over 2.5 probability is only 42% — the model is applying a significant defensive adjustment; treat Over 2.5 with caution despite form.
Poisson rates Alessandria as the most likely outcome at 38% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Brescia (3.00 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Alessandria if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.36 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 42% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though form averaging only 4.2 goals per game points in the other direction.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (2 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Alessandria vs Brescia | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Stadio Giuseppe Moccagatta • Kick-off: Saturday 11 Sep 2021, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Alessandria 38% | Draw 28% | Brescia 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 48% | xG Alessandria 1.22 / Brescia 1.14 • Poisson strength factors: Alessandria attack 0.959 / def 1.150 | Brescia attack 0.972 / def 0.988 | league avg home 1.285 / away 1.020 • Poisson stance: Alessandria (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.22
Alessandria xG
Expected Goals
1.14
Brescia xG
48%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Alessandria vs Brescia kick off?
Alessandria vs Brescia kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 11 September 2021 at Stadio Giuseppe Moccagatta.
What was the final score in Alessandria vs Brescia?
Alessandria 1 - 3 Brescia.
Where is Alessandria vs Brescia being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Giuseppe Moccagatta.
What competition is Alessandria vs Brescia part of?
Alessandria vs Brescia is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Alessandria vs Brescia?
Our statistical model gives Alessandria a 38% chance of winning, Brescia a 34% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Alessandria the favourite.
Will both teams score in Alessandria vs Brescia?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Alessandria and Brescia will score (BTTS).
Will Alessandria vs Brescia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Alessandria and Brescia?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Alessandria and Brescia in?
Alessandria (all comps): 0W-0D-2L in 2 | 0.00 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 3.00 | L5 L-L. Brescia (all comps): 2W-0D-0L in 2 | 3.00 PPG | GF 3.50 / GA 0.50 | L5 W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Alessandria's attacking strength (0.96x league average) is weighed against Brescia's defensive record (0.99x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.22. Flip it around — Brescia's attack (0.97x) against Alessandria's defence (1.15x) — and the away total comes out at 1.14.
The sample (2/2 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.8%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.2%), 1-0 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Alessandria Win
38%
2.64
28%
3.58
34%
2.93
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.5%
Home win
0 – 1
10.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.22
Alessandria xG
Total xG
2.36
1.14
Brescia xG
2.64
38%
Home win
3.58
28%
Draw
2.93
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.09
52%
BTTS No
1.92
Clean Sheet
32%
3.13
30%
3.38
Win to Nil
12%
8.24
10%
9.89
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.5 | 10.8 | 6.2 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.5 | 13.1 | 7.5 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.0 | 8.0 | 4.6 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 3.2 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Alessandria vs Brescia?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Alessandria and Brescia expected to score?
The model projects 1.22 expected goals for Alessandria and 1.14 for Brescia, a combined total of 2.36.
How confident is the prediction model for Alessandria vs Brescia?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Alessandria's recent record stands at 0W 0D 2L from 2 games, a 0.00 PPG return, with L-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for Alessandria, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Brescia, meanwhile, have gone 2W 0D 0L across 2 games — 3.00 PPG, with W-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for Brescia, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Brescia by 3.00 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Alessandria heading into this one.
Attack vs Defence
Alessandria are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 3.00 conceded per game recently; Brescia are on 3.50 scored and 0.50 conceded.
Defensively: Brescia in 50% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 2 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Alessandria
Early Season
Brescia
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Alessandria and Brescia in coming into this match?
Alessandria have gone 0W 0D 2L in their last 2 games (0.00 PPG), while Brescia have gone 2W 0D 0L in their last 2 (3.00 PPG).
Have Alessandria or Brescia been keeping clean sheets recently?
Alessandria have kept a clean sheet in 0% of their recent games, Brescia in 50%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 13 February 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Alessandria
1
Draws
1
Brescia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Alessandria and Brescia?
From 2 meetings on record, Alessandria have won 0, Brescia have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Alessandria and Brescia last play each other?
They last met on 13 February 2022, when Brescia 1-1 Alessandria.
Who has won more matches between Alessandria and Brescia?
Brescia have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Alessandria home games / Brescia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Alessandria play Brescia?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Alessandria's recent matches and 50% of Brescia's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Alessandria vs Brescia usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Alessandria's recent games and 50% of Brescia's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Alessandria and Brescia tend to score early?
Alessandria have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Brescia in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Brescia cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Alessandria.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Brescia beat Alessandria 1-3 at Stadio Giuseppe Moccagatta, Regular Season - 3, in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Alessandria 1.22 xG and Brescia 1.14 xG, a combined 2.36. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Brescia outscored their 1.14 projection by 1.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Alessandria attack 0.96 / defence 1.15 against Brescia attack 0.97 / defence 0.99, drawn from 2/2 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Alessandria 38% | Draw 28% | Brescia 34%, with Alessandria to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual Brescia win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. Over 3.5 was 21% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Alessandria 50%, Brescia 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Form vs Result
On form, Brescia arrived the stronger side — 3.00 PPG against 0.00. The form guide was vindicated by the result.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.